Full Proposals for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Proposed IPY Activity Details

1.0 PROPOSER INFORMATION

(Activity ID No: 107)

1.1 Title of Activity
IPY in the Antarctic Peninsula – Ice and Climate [The APY, APICS, GLABENAP, and TRAPIS Expressions of Intent]

1.2 Short Form Title of Proposed Activity
IPY-AP

1.3 Activity Leader Details
Eric Rignot
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
USA

1.4 Lead International Organisation(s) (if applicable)
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL

1.5 Other Countries involved in the activity
Argentina
Austria
Belgium
Brazil
Chile
Germany
Spain
Ukraine
United Kingdom
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL

1.6 Expression of Intent ID #'s brought together in this proposed activity
359,178,87,1010

1.7 Location of Field Activities
Antarctic

1.8 Which IPY themes are addressed
1. Current state of the environment
2. Change in the polar regions
3. Polar-global linkages/tele-connections
4. Exploring new frontiers
5. The polar regions as vantage points

1.9 What is the main IPY target addressed by this activity
1. Natural or social science

2.0 SUMMARY OF THE ACTIVITY

Air temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula have risen 6 times faster than the global average in recent decades, triggering glaciological and ecological events unique in the history of this region in the last 1,000 years. In particular, this warming was responsible for the collapse of Larsen A ice shelf in 1995 and Larsen B in 2002. Further south, Larsen C has thinned and continued warming could lead to its breakup within the next decade.
To date, access to the most active Peninsula regions has been limited, and little baseline glaciological data exist. As a result, large uncertainties remain in the determination of the mass balance of this region. Studies based on remote sensing and available in situ data show that a complex interaction is underway, involving enhanced precipitation at high elevation, enhanced melting at low elevation, sea ice retreat, enhanced surface and basal melting of land and shelf ice; glacier and ice shelf fracturing; melt percolation; seasonal changes in ice flow; and rapid glacial acceleration in the aftermath of ice shelf break-up. As the Larsen A and B ice shelves disintegrated they uncovered a glacial history preserved on the sea-floor indicating the current retreats are rare to unprecedented in the Holocene.
This proposal represents a combination of interests from GLABENAP, TRAPIS, APICS, and APY; these four activities sought to study ice- and climate-related changes at 3 different latitudes, and therefore 3 different stages of ice response to climate change. GLABENAP aims to investigate glacier response in the northernmost areas of the Peninsula, in the aftermath of the transition from continental Antarctic conditions to sub-polar Cordilleran styles of glaciation; APICS and TRAPIS aim to study the rapid changes where ice shelf retreat and glacier acceleration are underway at present; and APY has an interest in the precursors to this change, in basal melting and the influence of increasing summer surface melt on grounded glaciers further to the south around Larsen C. All 4 studies recognize the importance of climate, paleo-climate, geological and oceanographic influences; and all recognize the profound biological responses to change. This proposal is an umbrella organizational tool for several research projects focused on ice-climate interactions.
We propose an international program of logistical cooperation and scientific collaboration to measure, model, and understand the ongoing climate and glaciological changes in the AP. The results will document the evolution of shelf-glacier systems in a warming climate. Our field science program will install automated observing stations at selected sites, deploy an array of sensors designed to monitor glaciological and geophysical parameters of importance that cannot be collected any other way, and collect critical climate and paleoclimate data. During these campaigns, we will gather baseline data on ice motion, thickness, structure, and internal temperature. The program will also further investigate the sea-floor sedimentary record, promote ongoing west coast ecosystem research, and initiate a program of biological and oceanographic observation along the eastern coast. Remote-sensing-based studies will continue, using both new and existing tools, both airborne and satellite based. We envision a coordinated logistical plan combining US, UK, Chilean, Brazilian and Argentine airborne and ground assets, and we plan US and UK research vessel cruises that would support both land and sea field work. It is our hope that the logistical paths established as part of IPY will lead to continuing and growing cooperation in the Peninsula in the following years.
We will establish an IPY-AP web forum, and organize regular workshop meetings building on recent successful meetings at Hamilton College and SPRI that will provide a venue for discussing results, promoting outreach, and planning research activities.
The Antarctic Peninsula is a model for a future, warmer Antarctica. What we see there are changes of greater scale, speed, and magnitude than were considered possible before. IPY-AP seeks to better observe this system and its responses to know what the future may hold. This region of the World is ideal for international collaboration from geopolitical, logistical and scientific standpoints in the context of IPY.

2.1 What is the evidence of inter-disciplinarity in this activity?
The IPY-AP Initiative encompasses interests from many different aspects of the ongoing climate-driven change in the Antarctic Peninsula. It is focused on ice-climate interactions, and glacier mass balance, but includes collaborations from several other earth science disciplines: polar climate; paleo-climate; geology; oceanography; and biology. The rapid pace of climate change in the Peninsula has a profound influence on the earth’s system as a whole. We expect IPY-AP to lead to a better understanding and forecasting of future changes in the Peninsula as well as other parts of the Antarctic continent.

2.2 What will be the significant advances/developments from this activity? What will be the major deliverables? What are the outputs for your peers?
Advances:* Observations of key glaciological variables in the field, that could not be obtained by any other means, but that are essential to drive larger scale representations of climate-controlled glaciological processes such as snow/ice melt, snow accumulation, and ice discharge over the entire region; these observations will be gathered across significant latitudinal and longitudinal gradients in climate that are yet poorly characterized;* Provide realistic and defensible predictions of the contribution of the Antarctic Peninsula to sea level rise for the coming 100 years;* A detailed documentation of the sequence of events leading to ice sheet retreat: climate and ocean thresholds, ice shelf evolution towards break-up, glacier acceleration, seasonal changes, the role of melt (surface and base), ice sheet mass loss, and contribution to sea level rise;* Detailed observations of biosphere responses to rapid climate change and ice shelf removal.
Deliverables:* A determination of the state of mass balance of the glaciers draining the northern part of the Antarctic Peninsula, and its contribution to sea level rise; this will fill one of the major gaps in our knowledge of the contribution of the world’s glaciers to sea level rise;* A baseline of data on local climate, accumulation, melt, ice dynamics, ice thickness, ice surface elevation, remote sensing data products, etc. to establish a reference frame for future/continuing studies of this region;* Observations of the evolution of glacier ice in a warming climate in one of the most rapidly changing ‘polar’ region of the world, its consequences for the cryosphere, ocean circulation, marine biology, and ecosystems;* A detailed understanding of the relationship between present-day changes and past changes in the Antarctic Peninsula, and teleconnections between the AP and lower latitudes, via climate modeling and ice core analysis.

2.3 Outline the geographical location(s) for the proposed field work (approximate coordinates will be helpful if possible)

2.4 Define the approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities?

2.5 What major logistic support/facilities will be required for this project?
Fixed wing transport aircraft
Existing field stations
Ice strengthened research ship
Fixed wing geophysical aircraft
Autonomous Underwater Vehicle
Radars
Snow terrain vehicles
Rock-drilling capability

Further details – Antarctic Fieldwork timeframes: 10/07 – 12/07; 02-03/08; 10/08 – 12/08;02-03/09; traverse-based projects 02/08 – 03/08 and 02/09 – 03/09; ship-based projects 12/07 – 03/08 and 12/08 – 03/09; station based projects Logistical Support and Facilities: Chilean C-130 Hercules and P3 Orion Argentine C-130 Hercules and Twin Otter UK BAS Twin Otters US RV Nathaniel B. Palmer w/helicopters and ROV Research Stations: Argentina, Chile, Brazil Germany, Ukraine, UK, USA Further details IPY-AP will require access to a variety of regions, and we have started to discuss an outline of how our 4 projects can make a better use of our logistical assets. APICS is seeking to bring the NBPalmer (with helos) to the northeastern Peninsula coast in February- March of 2008; BAS Twin Otter field deployments under TRAPIS may be used to survey southern Peninsula targets for glacier mass balance work and climate effects throughout the Peninsula. Argentine C-130s and a Twin Otter may be used in the northeastern areas in 2008 and 2009 for additional support and follow-up. GLABENAP will require logistics from the investigator’s Antarctic Programs. Permanent stations lodgement will be needed at Comandante Ferraz and Bernardo O’Higgins stations. Field camp deployment, with helos, and snowmobiles, SnowCat, etc., will be needed on glaciers in the Admiralty Bay, Trinity Peninsula and Vega Island regions. Pulse RADAR surveys over Trinity Peninsula glaciers require helo support. APY will rely on ongoing collaboration with Chilean military, CECS and NASA to conduct remote sensing surveys of the Peninsula. We will discuss how these surveys can address science objective for our cluster of activities. Field survey will require Twin Otters, flying out of Rothera, UK, possibly in collaboration with TRAPIS/BAS; and snowmobiles in the field to travel on glaciers and the ice shelf near MobilOil Inlet.

2.6 How will the required logistics be supplied? Have operators been approached?

2.7 If working in the Arctic regions, has there been contact with local indigenous groups or relevant authorities regarding access?

3.0 STRUCTURE OF THE ACTIVITY

3.1 Origin of the activity
This activity is the start of a new programme that will outlive IPY

3.2 How will the activity be organised and managed? Describe the proposed management structure and means for coordinating across the cluster
IPY-AP is a collaborative international scientific initiative. It is proposed as a means of linking and coordinating several research activities in the Peninsula. We envision hosting regular workshops at rotating venues, every 18 months, following the success of the AP workshops at Hamilton College and SPRI in prior years. Independent research proposals will be submitted from the different groups of collaborators and individuals to funding agencies. We will share and combine logistical assets and data to provide broader and enhanced access to the areas of interest.
Regular workshops will provide the best venue for scientific exchange and coordination of outreach and data management activities. The workshop activities, presentations and results will be posted on the web. The workshops will complementary aspects of climate evolution in the Peninsula, e.g. marine biology and ecology, physical oceanography.
Researchers from several countries are involved in this project. They will carry out activities in specifically selected glaciers located in different parts of the Peninsula, managing their own logistics. Depending on national capabilities logistic support will be coordinated if available. Science activities will be coordinated to define actions, agree on common protocols to perform recording and sampling of glaciological data, coordinate resources, etc. Administration of resources will be done at a local level.

3.3 Will the activity leave a legacy of infrastructure and if so in what form?
Yes, in the form of long-term automated observing stations, new lines of research in biological changes on the western and eastern Peninsula, new international logistical and scientific linkages, and continuing IPY-AP forum (workshop meetings, outreach program, website, and data center).

3.4 Will the activity involve nations other than traditional polar nations? How will this be addressed?
IPY-AP has contributions from a large number of nations seeking to increase their activities in the polar regions; however, most of the nations involved have at least one small station in the area, and so would perhaps be considered 'traditional' polar nations.

3.5 Will this activity be linked with other IPY core activities? If yes please specify
We will be closely linked with the data management activities of IPY, such as IPY-DIS (proposed by NSIDC). We will also be scientifically linked (cross-collaborations, presentations of results) with the several ice-dynamics and climate-related IPY activities, such as those concerning other parts of the Peninsula, the Amunsen Sea Embayment, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and Greenland ice sheet stability. These studies have a similar set of objectives as IPY-AP.

3.6 How will the activity manage its data? Is there a viable plan and which data management organisations/structures will be involved?
Pre- and post fieldwork metadata from GLABENAP will be published in the Antarctic Master Directory (Antarctic portal of the Global Change Master Directory), following the Joint Committee on Antarctic Data Management (JCADM) endorsed standard (DIF), which is ISO 19115 compliant. To leave a lasting legacy raw and calibrated observed and derived data, gridded data, and model outputs is archived at appropriate World Data Centers (e.g. NSIDC, WGMS), and regional and national data centers (e.g. Chilean Centro Nacional de Datos Antárticos, Antarctic Peninsula GLIMS Regional Data Centers) for long term storage and accessibility. Widespread access to the data is enabled by the use of basic and advanced web services that are build on open and well defined standards and specifications. This makes the project data interoperable with other relevant data bases and allows to use or build generic portals, data visualization and data mining tools. As almost all of the project data is related to a geographic location we make use of SCAR’s emerging Antarctic Spatial Data Infrastructure AntSDI. A quality control scheme for the project data has to be developed and established. Reporting requirements are to be defined. A data management task force is established prior to the start of the field work. Field data from APY will be public domain per NSF/NASA policy. Laser altimetry and ice thickness data will be accessed on the webb, as done in Greenland. AWS data will be posted at University of Colorado. Ice velocity maps from JPL will be shared with other researchers in the Peninsula and are distributed to NSIDC.

3.7 Data Policy Agreement
Will this activity sign up to the IPY draft Data Policy (see website)
Yes

3.8 How will the activity contribute to developing the next generation of polar scientists, logisticians, etc.?
This IPY-AP brings together a diverse group of researchers both with young and long-time scientific experience in the Antarctic, hence bridging the gap between generations of polar scientists from various disciplines and from various nations. The various projects will involve graduate students, logistical assistants, and post docs from several institutions, for which this project will be a new and unique experience.

3.9 How will this activity address education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
APICS plans several activities, currently viewed as independent efforts. Unifying and coordinating them will be an early task of IPY-AP. Among the current ideas:
• Books/articles on the human and natural history of the Peninsula(M. Hooper; L. DuBois);
• Coordination of news-event releases among international research groups (S. Renfrow);
• Educational/public interest web and CD/DVD content on Peninsula climate change
(e.g. Kara Pharris/NSIDC; IAI effort Andrew McMinn/UTas);
• Undergraduate education and research opportunities (Eugene Domack)
• Adopt-a-School(s): schedule live video feeds from field work/cruises (Marilyn Raphael)

GLABENAP will produce a series of web-based, interactive eLearning modules specifically designed for high school/undergraduate curricula. We will build on the experience, methodology, infrastructure, and content developed over the past five years within the www.webgeo.de project. Webgeo is an on-line eLearning package for Physical Geography that has been applied successfully over the last years in undergraduate teaching. Webgeo content features both a general approach to geomorphology, and climatology as well as regional topics. The Antarctic Peninsula chapter will explain and illustrate both the scientific rationale of the research and the global relevance of the subject. Graduate students and post docs from the participating institutions will be involved in GLABENAP activities.

APY will involve graduate students from University of Colorado, a post doc from JPL, and graduate students from the University of Valdivia in Chile.

TRAPIS plans a unique participatory program for tourists visiting the Antarctic Peninsula, asking cruise ships and tourists to re-visit known photo sites from past expeditions and re-photograph them for change detection and seasonal evolution of glacier and ice shelf fronts.

3.10 What are the proposed sources of funding for this activity?
APICS will seek support from NSF-OPP (NBPalmer/helicopters) and other national funding agencies (NERC, Instituto Antártico Argentino) for colleagues interested in collaborating in the Larsen B area.APY will seek additional support from NSF-OPP and NASA Cryospheric Science Program. Rignot/Thomas are currently funded by NASA to study the mass balance of the Peninsula from remote sensing for 2005-2008. CECS is funded for IPY activities in the Peninsula.
GLABENAP will seek support from regular announcement opportunities (CONICYT, INACH, IAA, DFG/BMBF, CNPq/PROANTAR etc). Applications to regular and special international funding opportunities will be submitted as a consortium for not covered items. Limited logistic and operative support is currently allocated from each national Antarctic Program.

3.11 Additional Comments

4.0 CONSORTIUM INFORMATION

4.1 Contact Details

Lead Contact
Dr Eric Rignot
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
4800 Oak Grove Drive, Mail Stop 300-321, Pasadena CA
91109-8099
USA

Tel:          818 354 1640
Mobile:   N/A
Fax:         818 393 5184
Email:       eric.rignot@jpl.nasa.gov

Second Contact
Dr Ted Scambos
National Snow and Ice Data Center
1540 30th Street Rm 218, Bldg RL-2, Campus BOx 449 University of Colorado, Boulder CO
80309-0449
USA

Tel:          303 492 1113
Mobile:   N/A
Fax:         303 492 2468
Email:      teds@icehouse.colorado.edu

4.2 Other significant consortium members and their affiliation