Full Proposals for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Proposed IPY Activity Details

1.0 PROPOSER INFORMATION

(Activity ID No: 121)

1.1 Title of Activity
Improved numerical weather forecasting and climate simulations by exploitation of in-situ, airborne remote-sensing and satellite data, advanced modelling systems and basic research into polar processes and into polar-global interactions.

1.2 Short Form Title of Proposed Activity
THORPEX-IPY

1.3 Activity Leader Details
Thor Erik Nordeng
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Norway

1.4 Lead International Organisation(s) (if applicable)
WMO WWRP/THORPEX

1.5 Other Countries involved in the activity
Denmark
Japan
UK
Australia
France
New Zealand
USA
Belgium
Germany
Russia
The Netherlands
Canada
Iceland
Sweden
ECMWF (int)

1.6 Expression of Intent ID #'s brought together in this proposed activity
294,410,638,600,798,618,811,70,113,116,134,146,167,158, 206,394,297,888,92, 990

1.7 Location of Field Activities
Primarily Arctic, but also Antarctic and western Pacific. The later is to investigate polar-global connections.

1.8 Which IPY themes are addressed
1. Current state of the environment
2. Change in the polar regions
3. Polar-global linkages/tele-connections
4. Exploring new frontiers
6. The human dimension in polar regions

1.9 What is the main IPY target addressed by this activity
1. Natural or social science

2.0 SUMMARY OF THE ACTIVITY

The WMO/WWRP’s THORPEX Global Research Programme involves nations from North America, Europe, Asia, Africa and the Southern Hemisphere. THORPEX intends to conduct research that will accelerate improvements in the prediction and understanding of high-impact weather on the 1 to 14-day time-scale for the benefit of society, the environment and the economy.
The aims of this cluster proposal are to improve numerical weather prediction model systems and climate models by utilizing remotely sensed and in situ observations taken during the IPY and to study and advance our knowledge of meteorological, surface and ocean phenomena typical for the region. The investigations will also improve our understanding and modelling of polar-global interactions. The scope ranges from high-resolution numerical weather prediction to climate and regional ocean modelling. The motivation comes from several applications: 1) Regional weather forecasting: In polar areas there are strong needs for accurate weather forecasts. Further model-based ocean, ice and wave forecasting need accurate forcing fields. 2) Medium range (global) weather forecasting: Improved model quality in polar areas influences forecasts at mid and high latitudes. 3) Climate studies.
The project has four objectives:
The first is on forecasting and to what degree an improved use of satellite data and an optimized observational network, including targeted observations, will improve forecasts of high impact weather events (IPY project numbers 294; 394; 638; 600; 798; 811; 113; 146; 206, 410, 92, 888, contribution related to meteorology). These studies will not be limited to forecasting conditions over the poles, but will also address polar-global interactions. These investigations will provide insight into the design of the global observing system and into the potential impact of any IPY legacy measurement sites. New satellite technologies will be used to develop products that can potentially improve weather forecasts.
The second objective is to better understand physical and dynamic processes in the polar regions, in general, with a specific emphasis on aerosols, the microphysical properties of clouds and the possibility of improving parameterisation schemes of clouds and radiation for use in numerical weather prediction and climate models (294; 638; 600; 798; 70; 116; 158; 206; 410; 113, 297). The spatial variations in surface characteristics, stable lapse rates and extreme seasonal variations in solar radiation make the polar environment unique and a challenge for parameterizations.
The third objective is a deeper understanding of the polar regions through a focus on small scale weather phenomena and the impacts of topography and surface variations (394; 638; 618; 811; 113; 134; 146; 167; 297; 888, contribution related to meteorology). Such research will also provide valuable insight on the limitations of coarse-grid models, since recent research has provided evidence for a wide variety of circulations (terrain-induced vortices, downslope winds, flow channelling, thermodynamic impacts of open water etc) that are often sub-grid-scale in climate and many forecast models. This work includes investigations of the flow distortion over Greenland and how it impacts the mesoscale thermohaline circulation. In some cases the higher resolution modelling capability will remain in place as a legacy of THORPEX-IPY activities.
Taken together the research results from first three objectives the potential to improve future predictions of the weather and climate over the polar regions. Improvement in the initial state means an improved time series of operational and research analyses for climate change research.
The final objective is to utilize improved forecast systems to benefit society, economy and environment. High-impact weather events in polar regions include spring thaws, sea ice movement, and severe winter cyclones resulting in strong winds, high seas, and heavy precipitation as defined by their impact on public safety, fisheries and fishery management, activities of the indigenous arctic populations, wildlife, energy production and transportation. These problems are not local to the poles as the intrusion of polar air masses into higher latitudes also has dramatic impacts and many of the polar events are linked to wave trains that are initiated at lower latitudes. During IPY, the major operational forecast centers of the world will co-operate to form a THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) that will form the basis for research on ensemble prediction and on improving society’s ability to utilize forecast information. TIGGE will also be made available for IPY field operations.

2.1 What is the evidence of inter-disciplinarity in this activity?
THORPEX-IPY is inter-disciplinary in several ways: i) it brings together atmospheric and oceanographic scientists, engineers, observationalists, and modellers from both climate and weather, ii) THORPEX-IPY will include social scientists and users of forecast information through the direct impact of weather, sea ice and oceanic conditions on human activities Iii) the problems of interest also interface with researchers from land hydrology, the cryosphere and oceans.

2.2 What will be the significant advances/developments from this activity? What will be the major deliverables? What are the outputs for your peers?
Advancement in modelling of physical and dynamical processes, and in designing observing systems/strategies. Improved usage of conventional, air-borne, satellite, and IPY observations through advanced data-assimilation techniques. Improved determination of the present environmental status of the polar regions. Improved operational prediction with benefits for society, the economy, the environment and policy makers. Improved linkage between weather and climate studies of polar regions. Furthering our ability to quantify and understand past and present environmental change in the polar regions in order to improve predictions. Improved understanding of critical climate and weather processes and how these processes impact society and the enviromment through climate change and how impact weather events. The social science research agenda of THORPEX will also advance understanding into how humans deal with uncertainty in the decision process.

2.3 Outline the geographical location(s) for the proposed field work (approximate coordinates will be helpful if possible)

2.4 Define the approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities?

2.5 What major logistic support/facilities will be required for this project?
Multi-instrumented platforms
Ice strengthened research ship
Helicopters
Existing field stations
Fixed wing geophysical aircraft
New field station
Ship recovery of buoys etc
Fixed wing transport aircraft

Further details – Observatories, HPC computer facilities incl. Archives, Rockets , Satellites, Radars

2.6 How will the required logistics be supplied? Have operators been approached?

2.7 If working in the Arctic regions, has there been contact with local indigenous groups or relevant authorities regarding access?

3.0 STRUCTURE OF THE ACTIVITY

3.1 Origin of the activity
This is a pulse of activity during 2007-2009 within an existing programme

If part of an existing programme please name the programme – THORPEX, AOMIP, RIME

3.2 How will the activity be organised and managed? Describe the proposed management structure and means for coordinating across the cluster
THORPEX-IPY will be organised as a part of THORPEX.

THORPEX has a Scientific Advisory Board, an International Core Steering Committee, and has begun the process of forming a THORPEX-IPY Joint Scientific Committee. In addition, THORPEX is in the process of forming an Executive Board with regional committees in North America, Europe, Asia and is forming the Southern Hemisphere Committee for the implementation of the program

Links will be developed to other projects funded by different countries such as Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP, 811) and Arctic Climate Regional Model Intercomparison Project (ARCMIP, 134). These programs are coordinated internationally by collaborative partners from different countries.

3.3 Will the activity leave a legacy of infrastructure and if so in what form?

In some cases, the special high resolution modelling systems developed for THORPEX-IPY will be a legacy. For example, The Canadian Polar-GEM could be made operational on a permanent basis for the international Arctic communities after the IPY. This would be an international Canadian contribution as a provider of enhance environmental products in the Arctic. Advances in climate modelling, operational weather prediction and polar analyses are also important legacies, although not in the traditional infrastructure sense. Furthermore, in some countries (e.g. Iceland) the project will support high-performance computing facilities for polar research.

3.4 Will the activity involve nations other than traditional polar nations? How will this be addressed?
Weather forecasting and climate issues such as freshwater balance and hydrological cycle are in their nature global and polar processes easily influence areas outside their origin. It is therefore natural that nations other than the traditional polar nations participate. THORPEX includes participation of the developing and developed world.

3.5 Will this activity be linked with other IPY core activities? If yes please specify

It is natural that THORPEX-IPY creates strong links with core programs that consider the ocean and cryosphere. In particular we will link with “iAOOS” and “Cryosphere: State and fate of the Polar Cryosphere”. Atmospheric flows impact the chemistry of the polar regions which is a critical and growing human impact. Links will be made to the human studies area.

3.6 How will the activity manage its data? Is there a viable plan and which data management organisations/structures will be involved?
An international data management plan is being developed for THORPEX that will include IPY. Data will include field measurements and relevant operational data and output. As an example of data management, within the US, the data management will likely include NOAA, UCAR/JOSS and UCAR/UNIDATA. The data management will in general be dealt by with National Meteorological Services Other data management facilities will be other national data centres like BADC (British Atmospheric Data centre). Data sets will be open whenever possible and adhere to data policies of funding agencies. Data management issues should follow WMO resolution 40.
The project will comply with the IPY 2007-2008 Data Policy.

3.7 Data Policy Agreement
Will this activity sign up to the IPY draft Data Policy (see website)
Yes

3.8 How will the activity contribute to developing the next generation of polar scientists, logisticians, etc.?
Development of state-of-the-art data assimilation systems and physical parameterization of processes relevant for the polar studies. This area is challenging scientific work and will educate a large number of scientists working in the area. Field measurements will expose a new generation of scientists to polar investigations.

3.9 How will this activity address education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Research results will be disseminated via international conferences and work shops and via high-quality scientific journals as well as popular literature. In addition, information and results will be put on University, National organisations and Science community web sites. At the time of the main field campaign, a press office will publicise this event.
Among individual cluster members, there are concrete plans for a strong cooperation with local communities and organisations. Public workshops or information sessions are another means of helping to generate interest and awareness. Interaction with local schools also provides outreach opportunities.

3.10 What are the proposed sources of funding for this activity?
Following endorsement from the national and international IPY committees, funding is to be sought through the normal routes (National Funding, International programs (eg. EU/FP 7), International organisations (eg. ESA and EUMETSAT, agencies and interagency funding groups) and internal contributions. There is support for the proposal from the EUCOS (EUMETNET Composite Observing System) Programme and EUCOS is willing to contribute to the observational activities in whatever way may be possible

3.11 Additional Comments
2.7 If working in the Arctic regions, has there been contact with local indigenous groups or relevant authorities regarding access? - Interactions have been made to understand the needs and utilization of weather information by indigenous groups through relevant authorities, but access has not been discussed.




See THORPEX Science Plan and International Implementation Plan at http://www.wmo.int/thorpex. US and Canadian THORPEX involvement in IPY has been approved and further encouraged by a meeting of the North American THORPEX Regional Committee. THORPEX has evolved into the next GARP for the weather community and the collaboration of these two major programs (THORPEX and IPY) will benefit greatly through collaboration.

4.0 CONSORTIUM INFORMATION

4.1 Contact Details

Lead Contact
Professor Thor Erik Nordeng
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
P.Box 43, Blindern
0313
Norway

Tel:          +47 22963000
Mobile:   N/A
Fax:         +4722963050
Email:       t.e.nordeng@met.no

Second Contact
Dr David Parsons
National Center for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000 Boulder, CO
80307
USA

Tel:          +1-303-497-8749
Mobile:   N/A
Fax:         +1- 303-497-8770
Email:      parsons@ucar.edu

4.2 Other significant consortium members and their affiliation