Full Proposals for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Proposed IPY Activity Details

1.0 PROPOSER INFORMATION

(Activity ID No: 104)

1.1 Title of Activity
The Arctic Hydrological Cycle Monitoring, Modelling and Assessment Program

1.2 Short Form Title of Proposed Activity
Arctic-Hydra

1.3 Activity Leader Details
Árni Snorrason
Hydrological Service, National Energy Authority
Iceland

1.4 Lead International Organisation(s) (if applicable)
WMO Hydrology and Water Resources
WMO Commission on Hydrology
WCRP/CliC
WMO Commission on Basic Systems

1.5 Other Countries involved in the activity
Canada
Denmark
Finland
Japan
Norway
Russia
USA
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL

1.6 Expression of Intent ID #'s brought together in this proposed activity
362,67,158,201,414,665, 1116, 1241, FP# 197, FP#317

1.7 Location of Field Activities
Arctic

1.8 Which IPY themes are addressed
1. Current state of the environment
2. Change in the polar regions
3. Polar-global linkages/tele-connections
5. The polar regions as vantage points

1.9 What is the main IPY target addressed by this activity
1. Natural or social science

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2.0 SUMMARY OF THE ACTIVITY

The scientific goals of the Arctic-HYDRA project are: To characterize variability in the Arctic Hydrological Cycle (AHC) and to examine linkages between atmospheric forcing and continental discharge to the ocean; to assess the historical response of the Arctic Ocean to variations in freshwater input from rivers and net precipitation over the ocean; to attribute to specific elements of the AHC or to external forcing the sources of observed spatial-temporal variability in the land-ocean-ice-atmosphere system; to detect emerging changes in the contemporary state of the AHC in near real time and to place such changes into a broader historical context. Given the scope of these goals and the relatively short time-frame of the IPY, Arctic-HYDRA also forms part of the parallel longer term (10-15 yr) objectives of the ICARPII (International Conference on Arctic Research Planning) Working Group 7 (WG7) project “Terrestrial Cryospheric & Hydrologic Processes and Systems”.
The Arctic-HYDRA project consists of a core network for observation of the AHC (Arctic-HYCOS) coupled with a suite of intensive, focused process studies that are based on in-depth measurements and modelling of the individual components of the AHC. Furthermore, hydrological models and data assimilation techniques will be developed to generate a comprehensive, integrated description of the AHC including the feedbacks between the atmosphere, cryosphere and the oceans. The project will have a data management and information system in accordance with IPY and WMO protocol. It will establish links with other relevant clusters, e.g. on meteorology, climatology, cryosphere, including permafrost, snow-cover and glaciers, biosphere and societal issues affected by the AHC.
The Arctic-HYCOS is the core network of the Arctic-HYDRA. This system is intended to provide hydrological information of a high quality, both historical as well as near real time data. It will provide an important benchmark for understanding future change to the AHC; information essential to the longer term ICARPII-WG7 program. The system will be based on the existing national data bases and observation systems in the Arctic countries that have historical long-term observation series on the large rivers discharging to the Arctic Ocean, as well as stations on tributaries and smaller rivers. The Arctic-HYCOS network will meet the requirements of WMO-HYCOS. During the International Polar Year (IPY) four test hydrological stations are to be established in the Mackenzie (Canada), Lena and Pechora (Russia) and Tana (Norway, Finland) river basins. It is envisaged that additional sites will be established in accordance with the broader plan of the Arctic-HYCOS and ICARPII-WG7 program.
To complement the core network, a set of Long Term Hydrological Observatories (LTHOs) will be established in Arctic North America and Eurasia. They will collect basic hydrologic data such as precipitation, stream flow, groundwater levels, etc. as well as meteorological and biogeochemical data. In Alaska a LTHO (the Kuparuk River) will serve as an international natural laboratory dedicated to understanding the dynamic interactions between hydrological, ecological and climatological processes. Another LTHO will be established in the Eurasian Continent with focus on the ocean/atmospheric interactions with the hydrological cycle, including radio-sonde observation, radar measurement, GPS and solid precipitation measurements. Similar LTHO or network of research basins will focus on advancing our understanding and description of land surface cryospheric processes in order to improve the predictive capacity of Arctic atmospheric, cryospheric and hydrological models at small to medium scales. This will include observations of snow accumulation, over-winter ablation processes, snowmelt, soil thermodynamics, infiltration and water redistribution in frozen and thawing soils and cold regions water balance components in non-frozen periods. Two additional LTHOs will focus on the impact of aerosols on the AHC with supplementary UAV measurements and enhanced surface observations. The LTHO observations will be used to improve atmospheric, hydrologic and cryospheric process representations and also to evaluate meso-scale representations in models and assess model performance and sensitivity in multi-criteria prediction. The LTHO network will form the platform for developing the “supersites” of monitoring and research activities identified for the ICARPII-program.
The Arctic-Hydra executes a strategy for synthesis and integration studies of the AHC based on the Arctic-RIMS project. It will produce time-varying aerological and land surface water budgets including river and ice melt inputs to the Arctic Ocean. All key elements of the terrestrial and ocean water balance will be provided, including an assessment of potential error. A guiding philosophy of the proposed research is to "stay close to the data" although both data assimilation and modelling systems will be used for generalizations. The use of observations, either by themselves or as model drivers, provides a "reality-based" framework to understand observed variability and change in the Arctic system.

2.1 What is the evidence of inter-disciplinarity in this activity?
The Arctic-HYDRA project is based on interdisciplinary integration within the field of operational and scientific hydrology. Furthermore, integration with biochemical, ecological and in general environmental studies related to the AHC will be implemented. In addition, traditional integration with meteorology and climatology, as well as with cryospheric clusters will be considered. In fact, there is a long tradition of co-operation and joint monitoring of the classical hydrological variables with those of the atmosphere and the climate as well as with snow measurements, permafrost and glacial mass balance measurements and modelling in many of the Arctic National Hydro and Hydrometeorological Services (NHMS).

2.2 What will be the significant advances/developments from this activity? What will be the major deliverables? What are the outputs for your peers?
The establishment of high quality hydrological observation system within the Arctic with associated data and information system will be one of the legacies of the IPY. Specifically, it will provide the platform for the establishment of long-term “supersites” for the longer term ICARPII-WG7 program. Furthermore, an integrated research network focusing on the AHC will be established which will facilitate future work and create synergies and integration that are essential for comprehensive assessment of the complicated AHC and its feedback to the oceans, atmosphere and climate. The major deliverables will be: a comprehensive set of quality data on the AHC; advanced understanding of the various hydrological processes within the AHC; and improved formulation of these processes within the suite of models and data assimilation techniques used to generate a comprehensive picture of the AHC. These findings will be published in the scientific literature. Arctic HYDRA will organize workshops and international comprehensive conference on the AHC. Web page will be established to serve three purposes: For Project management, as meta-database and as system for external information dissemination and outreach.

2.3 Outline the geographical location(s) for the proposed field work (approximate coordinates will be helpful if possible)

2.4 Define the approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities?

2.5 What major logistic support/facilities will be required for this project?
Multi-instrumented platforms
New field station
Helicopters
Snow terrain vehicles
Existing field stations

2.6 How will the required logistics be supplied? Have operators been approached?

2.7 If working in the Arctic regions, has there been contact with local indigenous groups or relevant authorities regarding access?

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3.0 STRUCTURE OF THE ACTIVITY

3.1 Origin of the activity
This activity is the start of a new programme that will outlive IPY

3.2 How will the activity be organised and managed? Describe the proposed management structure and means for coordinating across the cluster
The proposed project management structure is based on the matrix organizational model. One dimension of the matrix will be cross-cutting activities, e.g., the Arctic-HYCOS observing system with extensions, modelling and data assimilation, data management and information dissemination and outreach. The other dimension of the matrix will be the individual LTHOs with process studies. Each component will be lead by a Principal Investigator, PI, but the overall project will be lead by a steering committee consisting of the PI´s, lead by the PI of the lead project as well as with representation from WMO HWR, CHy and WCRP/CliC, GRDC and ICARPII. The PI´s will establish, as they deem necessary, scientific group or other management structure for their activity. In the case of Arctic HYCOS, a steering group has already been established where all the NHMSs have representatives, as well as WMO and ICARPII.
The co-ordination will take place via steering group meetings on both levels, but common workshops and conferences will provide the forum for integration and exchange. The first meeting will be during ICARP II in Copenhagen in November and further meetings will also take advantage of the forums under IASC. Arctic HYDRA conference is envisaged during 2008.

3.3 Will the activity leave a legacy of infrastructure and if so in what form?
The establishment of high quality hydrological observation system within the Arctic with associated data and information system will be one of the legacies of the IPY.

3.4 Will the activity involve nations other than traditional polar nations? How will this be addressed?
There are nations that traditionally work in the Arctic, although their jurisdiction does not extend to the polar regions. It is assumed that they will freely continue to work in the Arctic through research coordination with local organizing groups, participation in workshops, conferences and proposals, and as outside reviewers. These research facilities are viewed as international research community assets.

3.5 Will this activity be linked with other IPY core activities? If yes please specify
The project will link with other clusters within IPY, e.g., IPY-Thorpex and other Meteorological and climatological cluster, clusters on the terrestrial cryosphere, e.g. snow, permafrost, glaciers and ice caps, for integration and input and with other clusters, e.g. ocean circulation, biochemistry and ecosystems, Northern resources, change: adaptation and vulnerability; coupled human-environmental systems, and new risk and stresses. Through establishment of the montiroing network essential for ICARPII, it also has indirect links with other IPY programs that have also been identified by ICARPII as being essential to meeting the longer term joint objectives of both these programs. These additional IPY studies include: GLACIODYN (a program initiated by the International Arctic Science Council-Working Group on Arctic Glaciology), ICEMACH-GIS (ICE MAss CHange on the margins of the Greeland Ice Sheet); and Thermal State of Permafrost (TSM, an integrated set of permafrost-related projects overseen by the International Permafrost Association)

3.6 How will the activity manage its data? Is there a viable plan and which data management organisations/structures will be involved?
The National Hydro and Hydrometeorological Services have a long tradition on managing data and information systems according to standards and WMO protocol (ref. Resolution 25 and 40). They will be responsible for the data collected within their part of the system. Furthermore, the Global Runoff Data Center, GRDC, will manage time series from the core network and various open data centres on the Arctic, e.g., NSIDC/ARCSS, IORGC/JAMSTEC, AMAG will conserve as well as disseminate the data.

3.7 Data Policy Agreement
Will this activity sign up to the IPY draft Data Policy (see website)
Yes

3.8 How will the activity contribute to developing the next generation of polar scientists, logisticians, etc.?
Numerous graduate students and research technicians will be involved in this research effort and will gravitate towards the next generation of polar researchers. Some of the sites are already used as training and teaching facilities for university courses and for training of local administrations of environmental issues.

3.9 How will this activity address education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
There are many targeted groups (scientist, K-12, indigenous people, general public, etc.) with varied depths of interest that must be accessed through various forms of communication and outreach. This will be accomplished through a variety of means: K-12 by presentations at schools, field trips, and websites; indigenous people by visits to local villages and websites; general public by television, newspapers and websites; and scientist through conferences, workshops, data sets, and usually professional publications.
The Arctic Hydra would provide for collection, computer processing, archival storage, exchange among the countries of the Arctic region and transmission to the appropriate international data centers and organizations of the following data and information:
1) data of current observations of the hydrological cycle characteristics to near real-time mode at the stations of the NHS according to the agreed regulations;
2) metadata and historical data as well as current observation data after the primary processing; these data processing, storage and maintenance would be provided by the facilities of the Arctic Runoff Data Base (ARDB) which is under operation since 1996 within the WMO Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC) in Koblenz, Germany.
3) space-time generalized observation data and information products prepared with the use of modern information technologies and mainly intended for solution of research problems ( coupled modeling, hydrological modeling, assessment of water resources and hydrological regime due to climate change, etc.); besides, they may be used to solve different applied problems (water resources management, hydrological forecasts, hydrological computations for water projects, etc.) as well as to implement international research programs and projects under the auspices of WMO, UNESCO, WCRP, CliC and others related to the Arctic region.

3.10 What are the proposed sources of funding for this activity?
National Hydro and Hydrometeorological Sevices, National research funding, Arctic Council, World Bank

3.11 Additional Comments

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4.0 CONSORTIUM INFORMATION

4.1 Contact Details

Lead Contact
Dr Árni Snorrason
Hydrological Service, National Energy Authority
Grensásvegur 9, Reykjavík
IS-108
Iceland

Tel:          +354 569 6000
Mobile:   +354 893 4222
Fax:         +354 568 8896
Email:       asn@os.is

Second Contact
Prof Charles Vorosmarty
University of New Hampshire
Complex Systems Research Center, Morse Hall, University of New Hampshire, Durham NH
3824
USA

Tel:          603-862-0850
Mobile:   N/A
Fax:         603-862-0587
Email:      charles.vorosmarty@unh.edu

4.2 Other significant consortium members and their affiliation