Full Proposals for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Proposed IPY Activity Details

1.0 PROPOSER INFORMATION

(Activity ID No: 36)

1.1 Title of Activity
ARCTIC OCEAN WARMING IN THE PAST

1.2 Short Form Title of Proposed Activity
WARMPAST

1.3 Activity Leader Details
Morten Hald
Department of Geology, University of Tromsoe
Norway

1.4 Lead International Organisation(s) (if applicable)
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL

1.5 Other Countries involved in the activity
Norway
Netherlands
NULL
NULL
Canada
Russia
NULL
NULL
Germany
South Korea
NULL
NULL
Iceland
USA
NULL
NULL

1.6 Expression of Intent ID #'s brought together in this proposed activity
786, 183, 207, 240

1.7 Location of Field Activities
Arctic

1.8 Which IPY themes are addressed
1. Current state of the environment
2. Change in the polar regions
3. Polar-global linkages/tele-connections
4. Exploring new frontiers
6. The human dimension in polar regions

1.9 What is the main IPY target addressed by this activity
1. Natural or social science

top of page

2.0 SUMMARY OF THE ACTIVITY

The overall goal of this initiative is to advance our knowledge of climate warming in the Arctic, by studying past climate change. We will focus mainly on the ocean circulation and climate of the NW Eurasian continental margin. The present climate in the Arctic shows signs of rapid change with decreasing sea ice cover and increasing temperature of the Atlantic Water. The implications of this warming are highly uncertain, as modelling experiments projecting temperatures for the next 100 years show a largescatter at high northern latitudes.
The project will include the following modules (M): M1 Rapid changes in the Atlantic Water inflow into the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean, M2 Ice sheet/glacier response to warming, M3 Improving ocean temperature and sea-ice proxies; M4 Climate modelling.

M1: Periods in the past during which the climate was instable and reached warmer conditions than today: a) Marine isotope stages (MIS) 12/11; b) MIS 6/5; c) Younger Dryas/Holocene climate optimum, and d) last millennium. Sea Surface Temperature ( SST) will be quantified using a multidisciplinary approach, combining faunal/floral based transfer functions and geochemical tracers. For the Holocene and the last millennium climate will be investigated in marine sediments, lake sediments and ice cores from Svalbard and marine sediments from the SE Greenland and SW to N Iceland margin. Further, archaeological sites in Norway and Svalbard will be investigated to explore the relationship between climate and human settlement and activities.
M2: Implications of climate warming for growth and decay of ice sheets and tide water glaciers, and its effect on ice stream dynamics in the Barents Sea and the Svalbard and SE Greenland margin.
M3: Reconstructions of SST below 5 OC based both on transfer functions and geochemical tracers are subject to large uncertainties. This is partly due to incomplete modern training sets at high latitudes. We aim to improve modern analogue data on planktonic and benthic foraminifera, diatoms, dinocysts, foraminiferal Ca/Mg-ratios and oxygen and carbon isotopes. From the same proxies we will also develop transfer functions for sea ice.
M4: An important motivation for attempting to simulate the climatic conditions of the past is that such experiments provide opportunities for evaluating how models respond to large changes in forcing.
Combined with high resolution acoustic data, cores will be sampled from high resolution sediment fans off northern and western Spitsbergen, the Spitsbergen fjords (in particular Kongsfjorden) and the Barents/Kara/Laptev Sea margin. Multi-core/box core surface samples >70ON in the NE Atlantic will be sampled. The SE Greenland and SW to N Iceland component will rely on existing seafloor samples. The project will include exchange programs and training courses for PhD students and young researchers.
This expression of intent focus on research questions addressed by IGP-PAGES and CLIVAR.

2.1 What is the evidence of inter-disciplinarity in this activity?
The project integrates the following disciplines: paleoceanography, terrestrial paleoclimate, geochemistry, statistics, climate modelling, marine ecology and paleoecology, and archaeology.

2.2 What will be the significant advances/developments from this activity? What will be the major deliverables? What are the outputs for your peers?
Improved tools (e.g. transfer functions) for reconstructing ocean temperatures of the past.
Modern calibration data for both biogenic and physical proxies.
Advanced knowledge on the temporal and geographical pattern of climate change during periods of natural Arctic warming as well as natural and anthropogenic warming during the last century.
Better understanding of the human response to Arctic warming.Improved understanding of the pattern and implications of future Arctic warming.

2.3 Outline the geographical location(s) for the proposed field work (approximate coordinates will be helpful if possible)

2.4 Define the approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities?

2.5 What major logistic support/facilities will be required for this project?
Ice strengthened research ship
Existing field stations

Further details – Ice strengthened research vessel "LANCE" owned by the Norwegian Polar Institute and "JAN MAYEN" owned by the University of Tromsoe, Norway. Cruises in Norwegian waters will be applied to the Oil Directorate Norway. Cruises in Svalbard Waters will be applied to the Norwegian authorities by Sysselmannen on Svalbard. Cruises along the East Greenland Margin will be applied to Danish authorities. Cruises in Russian waters (e.g. eastern Barents Sea and Kara Sea) will primarily be undertaken by Russian research vessels. Cruises to Iceland waters will be co-ordinated with Icelandic researchers and authorities

2.6 How will the required logistics be supplied? Have operators been approached?

2.7 If working in the Arctic regions, has there been contact with local indigenous groups or relevant authorities regarding access?

top of page

3.0 STRUCTURE OF THE ACTIVITY

3.1 Origin of the activity
This is a new activity developed for the IPY period

3.2 How will the activity be organised and managed? Describe the proposed management structure and means for coordinating across the cluster
The project will be organized in four modules, M1-M4, each with a module leader. The steering committee will consist of one member from each participating countryCoordinator: Prof. Morten Hald + project secretariat + data management at the University of Tromsoe, Norway
•Canada: Anne deVernal, Univ. Quebec•
Germany: M1-leader: Dr. Henning Bauch, IFM-GEOMAR
•Iceland: To be appointed, Jon Eriksson, Univ. Iceland
•Norway: M2-leader Prof. Tore O. Vorren, Univ. Tromsoe
•The Netherlands M4-leader: Dr. Hans Renssen, Vrije Univ.,
•Russia: M3-leader Dr. Sergei Korsun, Univ. St. Petersburg
•South Korea: Ho II Yoon; KORDI
•USA: Anne E. Jennings, University of Colorado
The steering committee will be responsible for the integration between the project modules, delivery from each project module, annual reporting, annual project meetings, scientific training and education program and data management.
The umbrella for our proposal will be the IPY proposal 183 ‘APEX’. APEX is also an initiative for a new ESF programme, which is planned to run over the usual 5 yr term of ESF programmes, and thus beyond IPY. The proposed APEX Steering Committee consists of one representative from each of the participating countries. Additional representatives will be included as the project expands.

3.3 Will the activity leave a legacy of infrastructure and if so in what form?
1) A reference set of surface sediment samples from high latitudes.
2) Institution and nation collaboration.
3) Training of future polar scientists.

3.4 Will the activity involve nations other than traditional polar nations? How will this be addressed?
South Korea has very recently started with Arctic geoscience research

3.5 Will this activity be linked with other IPY core activities? If yes please specify
WARMPAST will be coordinated under APEX (IPY 183). APEX addresses Arctic paleoclimate and its extremes. The main link will be to APEX sub-activity “warm extremes”. In addition close links will be established to the projects CARE, ICESTREAMS, HOLOPOL and NORCLIM.

3.6 How will the activity manage its data? Is there a viable plan and which data management organisations/structures will be involved?
The data of this project will be archived, published and distributed through the World Data Centre for Marine Environmental Sciences (WDC-MARE) using the information system PANGAEA (http://www.pangaea.de) and MAREANO (http://www.mareano.no/). PANGAEA (Bremen, Germany) supports publishing, distributing and archiving data related to the marine environment, to climatic variability and to the solid earth while MAREANO (Trondheim, Norway) supports the Norwegian Sea and Margin archiving data.

3.7 Data Policy Agreement
Will this activity sign up to the IPY draft Data Policy (see website)
No

3.8 How will the activity contribute to developing the next generation of polar scientists, logisticians, etc.?
- We will build on existing graduate/PhD courses.
- Organise an initial workshop for PhD and Post docs.
- Develop a mobility program for PhDs and post docs.
- Develop link to high school students and teachers.

3.9 How will this activity address education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
- Develop a web-page for scientific and public outreach
- Develop E-learning modules (animations) for teachings purposes
- Popular scientific publications, via journals, newspapers, radio and TV

3.10 What are the proposed sources of funding for this activity?
Norwegian participants: funding will be applied to the Research Council of Norway USA participants will apply to NSF for research support German participants: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft / EU-Intas
Icelandic participants: Funding will be applied for to the Icelandic Centre for Research
Dutch participants: funding will be applied to the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research NOW Russian participants will apply the Russiona Foundayion for Basic Research

3.11 Additional Comments

top of page

4.0 CONSORTIUM INFORMATION

4.1 Contact Details

Lead Contact
Prof Morten Hald
University of Tromsoe
Department of Geology University of Tromsoe
N-9037
Norway

Tel:          4777644412
Mobile:   +47 97522982
Fax:         +47 77645600
Email:       Morten.Hald@ig.uit.no

Second Contact
Prof Tine Rasmussen
University of Tromsoe
Department of Geology University of Tromsoe
N-9037
Norway

Tel:          47 77644008
Mobile:   N/A
Fax:         N/A
Email:      Tine.Rasmussen@ig.uit.no

4.2 Other significant consortium members and their affiliation