Full Proposals for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Proposed IPY Activity Details

1.0 PROPOSER INFORMATION

(Activity ID No: 48)

1.1 Title of Activity
International Study of Arctic Change

1.2 Short Form Title of Proposed Activity
ISAC

1.3 Activity Leader Details
ISAC project officer
ISAC project office
Sweden

1.4 Lead International Organisation(s) (if applicable)
Arctic Ocean Science Board (AOSB)
International Arctic Science Committee (IASC)
NULL
NULL

1.5 Other Countries involved in the activity
International Program
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NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
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NULL
NULL
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1.6 Expression of Intent ID #'s brought together in this proposed activity
620, 916, 80

1.7 Location of Field Activities
Arctic

1.8 Which IPY themes are addressed
1. Current state of the environment
2. Change in the polar regions
3. Polar-global linkages/tele-connections
6. The human dimension in polar regions

1.9 What is the main IPY target addressed by this activity
4. Legacy

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2.0 SUMMARY OF THE ACTIVITY

The International Study of Arctic Change, or ISAC, is a long-term, interdisciplinary program to study the causes and effects of environmental changes (including physical/chemical, biological/ecological, and socioeconomic/cultural changes) on the pan – Arctic scale with emphasis on the linkage to global dynamics. The main objective of ISAC is to observe and understand the characteristics of the integrated Arctic System including the social domain and its responses to change in order to develop the best adaptation and mitigation strategies to counteract negative effects due to greenhouse warming and other anthropogenic activities, as well as to changes caused by natural variability affecting the region. The recently observed changes in the Arctic are caused by interaction of multiple factors and already significantly impact people and ecosystems. For example, changes in biodiversity, land use, increased natural resource exploitation, and marine transportation are closely interlinked with social, cultural and economic activities. Significant pressure on the environment caused by human activities on all spatial scales will lead to further, probably larger, changes in the future. Thus, understanding the interaction of the human and environmental domains in the Arctic and their interplay with globe processes are the major focal points of the ISAC study. Such understanding would allow us to design response strategies to high – amplitude natural variability and secular trends including the effects of global environmental change.
In order to reach this goal, ISAC aims to facilitate a better understanding of how the Arctic evolves over time on a system scale and how it relates to the Earth System. More specifically, ISAC will:
i) collect, analyze and disseminate data from an integrated Arctic system observing network based on existing and new long – term observing sites as well as new observing methods; ii) Study interconnections between various system components in the Arctic, including atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, biosphere, land, and anthrosphere; iii) Study the nature and magnitude of positive or negative feedback processes which are characteristic of the Arctic system; iv) Study natural variability in the Arctic region in order to quantify the contribution of cyclical and secular components of the observed changes; v) Quantify current environmental changes in the Arctic system and project them into the future; vi) Design strategies for the adaptation of human living conditions to changes in the Arctic environment; andvii) Suggest trajectories for sustainable use of Arctic natural resources under future scenarios for socio-economic development. It is envisioned that these objectives of ISAC will be reached through a closely coordinated, long – term, multi – national, pan – Arctic effort. A number of international (e.g., iAOOS; EoI no. 80) and national (SEARCH; EoI no. 916) projects are in the process of addressing topics relevant to the ISAC objectives. ISAC will coordinate these existing (national) programs, identify existing gaps in the observational networks and synthesis/modelling studies, work towards filling these gaps through new program elements, and move towards integration of the individual international components and national programs. Such an approach will ensure the international, large – scale, cross – domain and legacy – oriented approach required to uncover the causes and effects of Arctic Change and its links to Global Change. To facilitate these tasks, an ISAC International Program Office will be set up in Stockholm, Sweden by the end of 2005 with the approval of IASC and AOSB.

2.1 What is the evidence of inter-disciplinarity in this activity?
The concept of ISAC is intrinsically interdisciplinary and includes the study of Arctic Change in the major physical and human domains. Evidence for this inter – disciplinary approach can be found in the Science Overview Document of ISAC (http://www.aosb.org/ISAC_SOD_Jan05.pdf), as well as the science plan (http://www.arcus.org/SEARCH/resources/files/SEARCH_Science_Plan.pdf) and implementation strategy (http://www.arcus.org/SEARCH/resources/files/ImplementOctober_R1.pdf) of the U.S. national component of ISAC, the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH; EoI no. 916). These plans were written by teams of scientists with backgrounds reaching from physical to social sciences and economics. Ongoing research activities within SEARCH are being conducted by research teams with backgrounds in a wide range of disciplines (e.g., the Freshwater Initiative (http://arcticchamp.sr.unh.edu/projects.shtml) includes oceanographers, hydrologists, atmospheric scientists, and glaciologists).

2.2 What will be the significant advances/developments from this activity? What will be the major deliverables? What are the outputs for your peers?
ISAC is an international long-term program with the goal to integrate contributions from a wide range of disciplines to achieve an integrated view of the causes and effects of Arctic Change on pan – Arctic scales and their link to the globe. In the process of fully implementing ISAC a suite of observing systems designed for long – term studies of the interconnected changes presently seen in the Arctic will be established and optimized. The planned continuation of this interdisciplinary Arctic observing system will be a significant IPY legacy accomplished through ISAC. The combined data streams from the individual components of the Arctic System Observing Network will enhance our understanding of the Arctic system and its changes through synthesis and modelling activities in a uniquely integrated fashion that could not be accomplished so far due to the lack of coordinated deployment of resources on a large scale. Finally, the scientific results will be translated into applications including the provision of an improved scientific basis for future impact assessments.

2.3 Outline the geographical location(s) for the proposed field work (approximate coordinates will be helpful if possible)

2.4 Define the approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities?

2.5 What major logistic support/facilities will be required for this project?

Further details – Virtually all facilities/platforms listed in the notes will be used in ISAC. ISAC activities will take place in all domains of the Arctic including the anthrosphere. Thus, we envision that a wide array of infrastructure components will be required including most of those listed in the notes.

2.6 How will the required logistics be supplied? Have operators been approached?

2.7 If working in the Arctic regions, has there been contact with local indigenous groups or relevant authorities regarding access?

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3.0 STRUCTURE OF THE ACTIVITY

3.1 Origin of the activity
This activity is the start of a new programme that will outlive IPY

3.2 How will the activity be organised and managed? Describe the proposed management structure and means for coordinating across the cluster
ISAC is a new interdisciplinary Arctic Change program initiated by the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) and Arctic Ocean Sciences Board (AOSB). A Science Overview Document is available and a Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) is presently being appointed. An International Project Office (IPO) will be set up in Stockholm, Sweden, with the goal of being operational around January 1, 2006. The IPO will coordinate projects that are relevant (e.g. iAOOS, EoI # 80) and would like to contribute to the objectives of ISAC. The ISAC SSC will oversee the scientific priorities, as well as identification of gaps.

3.3 Will the activity leave a legacy of infrastructure and if so in what form?
The main legacy of ISAC will be a long – term commitment to initiate, coordinate, and integrate interdisciplinary Arctic Change studies. The ISAC initiatives include establishment of an Arctic System Observing Network, which will be maintained after the end of the IPY intensive period. This system in itself will be a major legacy of IPY. In addition, the planned synthesis and modelling activities are expected to leave behind a legacy of truly cross – disciplinary results with new levels of insight into the basic functioning, as well as the variability and change of the Arctic system.

3.4 Will the activity involve nations other than traditional polar nations? How will this be addressed?
Once the ISAC IPO is operational, one of the missions will be to promote Arctic Change sciences to the global community.

3.5 Will this activity be linked with other IPY core activities? If yes please specify
ISAC will welcome the contribution to its objectives from all IPY activities, as with iAOOS, EoI # 80, which the ISAC IPO will coordinate. However, more will be pursued once the IPO is in operation and the funding situation of IPY activities is set.

3.6 How will the activity manage its data? Is there a viable plan and which data management organisations/structures will be involved?
The ISAC IPO with the guidance of the SSC will set data management policies. Its U.S. national component (SEARCH) already is planning to establish a data management group, which will be guided by the SEARCH SSC. ISAC realizes that there will be differences within its sub – components concerning the data flow and archiving procedures and will strive to unify the data policies within its sub – programs to the extent possible. Because of all the potential contributors it is not possible at this time to sign up to the IPY draft data policy, even if this is our goal.

3.7 Data Policy Agreement
Will this activity sign up to the IPY draft Data Policy (see website)
No

3.8 How will the activity contribute to developing the next generation of polar scientists, logisticians, etc.?
Within the frame of ISAC, numerous research projects are likely to be funded and implemented. This will require extensive technological as well as intellectual advancement and will offer many interesting opportunities for young scientists and technicians.

3.9 How will this activity address education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
One of the roles of the ISAC IPO will be to promote Arctic Change topics in it widest sense. An important part of this will be the outreach aspect, including programs for people living in the North. The details of these outreach activities have to be developed with time, but national programs such as SEARCH have already developed plans for systematic education and outreach programs.

3.10 What are the proposed sources of funding for this activity?
There will be central funds for the operation of the ISAC project office. ISAC projects will be funded through the regular national and international channels.

3.11 Additional Comments
ISAC being an international interdisciplinary programme initiated and supported by established Arctic organisations will ensure the coordination of field activities, data handling, dissemination and outreach during the IPY period as well as afterwards.

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4.0 CONSORTIUM INFORMATION

4.1 Contact Details

Lead Contact
Prof Leif Anderson
ISAC
Department of Chemistry Goteborg University Goteborg
SE-412 96
Sweden

Tel:          +46 31 772 27 74
Mobile:   N/A
Fax:         +46 31 772 27 85
Email:       leifand@chem.gu.se

Second Contact
Prof Peter Schlosser
SEARCH
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University 61 Route 9W - PO Box 1000 Palisades
NY 10964-8
USA

Tel:          +1 212 854 0306
Mobile:   N/A
Fax:         +1 212 854 7081
Email:      peters@ldeo.columbia.edu

4.2 Other significant consortium members and their affiliation