Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Effects of Climate Change, Glacial Retreat, and Snowfield Loss on Habitat Condition and the Affect on Wild Sheep Populations and Distribution in Polar and High Mountain Ecosystems in Alaska and Mid-Asia – A Comparative Study  (Glacial Retreat and Snowfield Loss)

Outline
The U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Geographic Science Center, in partnership with New Mexico State University, the Foundation for North American Wild Sheep, and the Alaska Game and Fish Department, intends to submit a proposal to study, analyze, and model the long-term effects of glacial and snowfield retreat in polar and high mountain areas of Alaska and mid-Asia and how these land-surface changes impact wild sheep distribution, population, changes in favored habitat, and the overall health of the habitat. A number of studies have been completed on the wild sheep populations that inhabit these extremely remote and diverse ecosystems, but those research efforts have not focused on the effects of glacial retreat and loss of snowfield. However the results of those previous research efforts will be utilized in the study. The study will take a detailed 3-decade look at glacial retreat and loss of historic snowfields and resulting land cover and land use change. A variety of remotely sensed data, ground-based observations, and existing historic databases will be utilized in the study. Examples include: Landsat data from selected dates in the 1970’s, 1980’s, 1990’s, and 2004/2005 timeframe, Aster data (back to 1999), and very high-resolution imagery such as Quickbird. Historic glacial data collected by the GLIMS (Global Land Ice Measurements from Space) project and housed in the GLIMS database will also be used to identify historic change. MODIS data will be integrated into the study to analyze phenological change at high temporal resolution, along with visual observations, both historic and current, of general habitat health and favored habitat of wild sheep populations. Historic data exists for animal locations derived from both radio collar and GPS recorded points resulting from visual sighting of wild sheep and are available in the Chugach Mountains, Brooks Range, and Wrangell Mountains of Alaska and the Altai, Tian Shan, Hindu Kush, other ranges, and the Pamir throughout the polar and high mountain areas of Alaska and mid-Asia. Animal location data will be coupled with information derived from various satellite images to construct models of habitat preference and changes by applying various classification and statistical methods (e.g., Wallace 2002, Huete et al. 2002, Valdez 1982). Models will be developed to predict future change and effects on wild sheep populations and habitat. Comparisons will be made between mid-Asian and Alaskan landscape changes and impacts on wild sheep populations and preferred habitat. We hypothesize that climatic changes that are resulting in the retreat of glaciers and reductions in historically permanent snowfields are altering the traditional favored habitat for high mountain large mammals, particularly wild sheep. Evidence exists that wild sheep in certain ranges in Alaska appear to be modifying their behavior and population due to undetermined causes. These behavioral and population changes could be the result of climactic changes that have resulted in habitat change due to glacial retreat and loss of permanent snowfields.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Develop techniques to characterize historic and current land-cover change and effect on wild sheep populations due to glacial retreat and loss of snowfield in high mountain and polar regions of Alaska and mid-Asia. Predictive models will be developed based on data and field observations to forecast future changes and patterns over the next 25 years. Analyses will be performed of the environmental, social, and economic consequences of continued glacial retreat in the study areas and affects on wild sheep. Suggest how study results can be integrated into the landscape and wildlife management plans of Alaska and host mid-Asian countries.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Research will be performed in close collaboration with the host countries of Mongolia, and possibly Tajikstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia dependant on study area locations. Scientific collaboration will take place through the Academy’s of Science of these host countries.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The Chugach Mountains, Brooks Range, and Wrangell Mountains of Alaska and the Altai, Tian Shan, Hindu Kush, other ranges, and the Pamir throughout mid-Asia.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 09/06 – 11/06      04/07 – 06-07      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Fixed wing aircraft and helicopter use for transport of field equipment and personnel into field study areas. Four-wheel drive vehicles for use in selected study areas. Use of both Landsat and Quickbird satellites for acquisition of digital imagery and GPS satellites for positional information and control points.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Research will address the Natural and Social Science theme. It is anticipated that the results of this research will be integrated into future landscape and large mammal management plans throughout Alaska, Canada, and Asia. Results of research will be published in professional papers, journal articles, and presented at suitable conferences.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
National agency
Commercial operator
Own support

Helicopter and fixed wing aircraft support will be provided either by host agency or via commercial operator. Field vehicle support will be provided by a commercial operator.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
No - Not formal agreement in mid-asia, however current research in mid-Asia is in collaboration with and endorsed by the host country and it is anticipated that this research would also receive endorsement. A formal agreement will be developed pending funding. Alaska Game and Fish Department is supportive of this initiative.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Yes

This is a new project based and is not a component of an existing project.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be managed by the U.S. Geological Survey utilizing the project team approach. Membership of the project team will include personnel from the U.S. Geological Survey, New Mexico State University, Foundation for North American Wild Sheep, and the Alaska Game and Fish Department. Communication, project planning and research direction, and project review and progress will take place via conference calls, e-mail, and quarterly face-to-face meetings.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Plans for communication and outreach include presentation of research and analysis activities at formal meetings and conferences either as poster sessions or professional talks. Additionally formal papers will be written to document research activities and findings. Project communication will also be accomplished through the development of a project web site.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Data management and access to data and research results will be accomplished via interaction and storage of data at ICSU World Data Centers. A web site will also be developed to provide access to research results and project activities and goals.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
It is anticipated that funding will be provided by national funding agencies, possibly host countries, and NGO partners in the International Polar Year initiative.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Chief Edwin Pfeifer
U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Geographic Science Center
520 N. Park Ave.
Suite 106, Tucson, Arizona
85719
USA

Tel: 520-670-5019
Mobile: 928-556-4633
Fax: 520-670-55592
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation