Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

The climate impact of increased forest volume: CO2 sequestration, change in albedo and emissions of non-CO2 gases  (Forest CO2 and albedo)

Outline
Forested areas are expected to increase over the coming decades because of changes in both climate and management practices. Increased forest area and density will sequester CO2 and this is encouraged as a climate measure under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. However, increased forest area will also have other consequences for the climate that are normally not considered when developing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Most important, increased forest area and density will change the reflective properties of the ground. Changes in forest area and density will also change the emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, in particular non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). NMVOC is formed by trees, while methane and nitrous oxide is formed in soil processes. Forest soil will have different emissions than for example wetlands and agriculture land. The ACIA report recognizes albedo change as one of the four key potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system. The total effect on climate of land-use albedo change, CO2 sequestration and change in non-CO2 emissions has not yet been placed in a coherent framework suitable for designing efficient adaptation and mitigation strategies. The key research question in this study is thus how changes in land-use albedo and emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases can be compared to carbon sequestration within a climate accounting framework. The overall objective of the proposal is to compare the total net climate effect of changes in (a) surface albedo, (b) carbon sequestration and (c) net fluxes of non-CO2 greenhouse gases as a consequence of changes in forest area and forest density in Norway and Europe. The project will use projected vegetation changes until 2100. A theoretical framework will be developed to compare the climate effects (e.g. in terms of radiative forcing) of the projected changes for Norway and Europe. The results of the project will be discussed in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol and future strategies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The project will link changes in the polar region to the global climate and give results applicable for policy makers developing mitigation and adaptation strategies.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The project would like to be linked to Proposed IPY activity 151 (PPS Arctic). The project will need collaboration with partners of this consortium to obtain vegetation datasets and other data for the analysis. We may seek partners outside this group pending on gaps.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Yes

The project is however building on existing models and data.

How will the project be organised and managed?
A work plan will be set up coordinated with other sub-projects of the activity.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
A strategy will be set up that includes dissemination of the results to the general public through using the CICERONE journal (with English translations) and actively using the media. Similarly the results will be communicated to policy makers using relevant fora in addition to the abovementioned.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
The project will not collect data, but use existimg data.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Through application to the Norwegian Research Council.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Kristin Rypdal
CICERO
P.O. Box 1129 Blindern
N-0318 Oslo
Norway

Tel: 4722858780
Mobile: 4799237127
Fax: 4722858751
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation