Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Natural and social-economic systems evolution of the East Asia Arctic under the climate changes  (NSSE-EAA (Nature and social systems evolution in the East Asia Arctic))

Outline
Knowledge of structure, state and evolution of natural conditions is necessary in order to understand the global processes proceeding in the Arctic and, is of large socio-economic importance. The project covering the arctic East-Asian region is based on the assessment of atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere and cryosphere interaction, their influence on biodiversity and social systems. The project is intended for the prognosis of consequences of environmental changes in socio-economic context. The North-East Asia environment has strong distinctive peculiarities. These include: continuous (to 1 km thick) permafrost, tundra arctic landscapes and soils, often formed on ice substrate, vast seaside lowlands formed by Pleistocene strata and alternated with middle- and low-mountainous structures, complicated geological and tectonic conditions, specific, relatively reduced flora and fauna, hydrological cataclysms. In each of abovementioned directions, the project participants have definite data which are planned to be synthesized into system in order to assess and predict the socio-economic state and development in the North-East Asia polar part. At the same time the size of knowledge of this system even compared with other arctic regions is very small. When additional scientific materials on key issues and standard areas are received, they will be sufficient to conduct complex analysis of the natural environment in the context of the life support system development and in the conditions of the predicted climate warming. Since the region in question belongs to systems especially sensitive to exploration, nature conservation and protection principles are taken into account. The main nature parameters to be analyzed: geological structure and tectonics, permafrost, soils, biosphere, hydrology, meteorology and climate. The analysis of socio-economic and ecological conditions of the region aimed at the complex generalization of the natural situation is a separate stage of the research. In this region, away from industrial and cultural centers, the specifics of ecological and economic condition, social development, medicine, transport and the life space as a whole are most closely connected with the natural environment. The evolution of natural conditions, in particular, in connection with the predicted climate change, will undoubtedly affect the quality of life for the majority of the population. In this connection, it is planned to make a forecast of potential “social” changes, including the analysis of social-professional mobility strategy of the northern peoples under modern conditions, as well as evaluating the status of human resources and studying the dynamics of ethno-social processes in the region. It is proposed to compose a social portrait of the Arctic zone population of Russia’s North-East on the main life activity parameters and to study the dynamics of ethno-social processes in the region in the conditions of structural reforms and societal modernization The overall objective of the project is to assess the processes and consequences of transformation of natural and socio-economic systems in the East Asian sector of the Arctic. The goals are: • general natural and territorial analysis of the studied region • to assess the state and evolution of permafrost as an important socio-economic factor of development of the East Asia Arctic • to assess the major geological and tectonic conditions • to determine the strategy of protection of arctic natural complexes in the conditions of industrial development and global warming of climate • to identify the dynamics and structure of biodiversity and productivity of northern ecosystems in the conditions of climatic changes within sub-arctic tundra and boreal forest • to study the state of water resources in the Eastern Siberian arctic sector • to investigate the forest and soil cover transformations in the conditions of global change of climate and human influence (example of Anabar river basin) • comparative analysis of permafrost ecosystems in different natural and climatic conditions • general analysis of socio-economic system of the studied region • to analyze the theoretical and methodological foundations of social and professional mobility in the North Asia eastern part • to assess the state of human resources and to study the dynamics of ethnic and social processes in the region • to identify and analyze the socio-economic factors of danger and to assess the social risks in the arctic regions. • to review the interaction of natural and socio-economic systems in the region. These goals will be realized through multidisciplinary field, analytical and laboratory investigations. The main research methodologies will include geocryological, physics-geographical, flora and fauna, complex ecosystem, meteorological, geochemical, lithological, sociological methods, mathematical modeling, mapping, as well as the use of GIS-technologies and the construction of databases. These investigations will involve a synthesis and analysis of archive materials, a collection of new data, analytical laboratory determinations, processing and analysis of remote sensing data, calculations and modeling of environmental processes as well as transformation of environmental parameters in the conditions of global changes. The socio-economic investigations will involve methods: method of structural shift, retrospective-biographical, gender and cohort analysis, modeling of socio-economic processes, sociological, history-comparative, statistical, culture studies, ethnological methods as well as a number of methods of, statistical processing of data and, their analysis. The proposed investigations will be carried out with the participation of schoolchildren, university and post-graduate students.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Theme 1: - strategy of protection of arctic natural complexes - new data on structure and present-day state of permafrost - estimation of present-day changes of landscape and biosphere - database on structure and modern-day state of the region’s environment - short-term and long-term prognosis of environmental state Theme 2: - to identify environmental changes and social conditions of the region in a changing world Theme 3: - natural and social system of North-East Asia: common and different features from other regions Theme 6: - transformation of environment, and changes in social and professional strategies of Northern peoples’ conduct - type of Northern peoples’ social and professional mobility - classification of factors of danger; quantitative and qualitative assessment and ranking of social risks of arctic regions dynamics of ethnic and social processes in the region in the conditions of structural transformations and modernization of Russian society.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The goals of the NSSE-EAA call for intensive international collaboration, including cooperation of the scientists from Russia, Germany, USA, Canada, Norway, Finland, Iceland and Japan which have experience in joint work on similar research themes in the Arctic. Joint research activities will be conducted in close interaction with the scientists and members of international scientific organizations (IPA, IASC, IGBP, ACD, LOIRA, UNEP/GEF-ECORA, Northern Forum and Arctic Council), as well as part of international expeditions

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Main areas of the field work: lowlands, mountains and deltas adjacent to the Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi seacoasts, including the islands and the shelf, as well as the area of boreal forests within the permafrost zone (down to 55° North)

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 03/06 – 11/06      03/07 – 11/07      03/08 – 11/08
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Transport ship, helicopter, light-engine aircraft, all-terrain vehicle, tractor-mounted drilling rig (to 300 m depth), portable drilling rig (to 25 m), ice drilling rig, snow mobile, motor boat, sled-based house trailer, sled train, geophysical equipment (radiolocation, geoelectric prospecting, seismology), automobile, field automatic climatic station, new field station. These material supplies, proposed to be rented during the research period, can be shared with other IPY projects carried out in North-East Asia

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Activities of the proposed project will enable future Russian and international projects to continue monitoring of the geoecological situation, the water resources condition at the key sections/stations, the permafrost temperature regime in boreholes to be drilled, the rates of coastline change, and greenhouse gas fluxes at the key sites and testing grounds. Meteorological/climatic and field stations that are planned to be operated in the IPY project can later be used for other scientific projects

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
Own national polar operator
Another national polar operator
National agency
Own support

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Yes - The project has been endorsed at regional level / Northern Forum Academy, Yakutsk Scientific Center of the RS (Y), Academy of Sciences of the RS (Y), Government of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), RF/

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Yes

The proposed project is a new autonomous proposal.

How will the project be organised and managed?
It is planned that the project will be coordinated by the IPY 2007-09 Russian National Committee, and at site the main functions of organizing activities will be assumed by the Northern Forum Academy. In order to improve activities coordination it is proposed to hold planning seminars, and on completion of the project it is proposed to hold a workshop with the purpose of wider propagation of knowledge gained in the process of work.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
University and post-graduate students and young scientists will be involved in field and laboratory activities of the project. This will help transfer experience, methodologies and new data to the education system, and will also provide scientific training for students in the Arctic. It is proposed to establish cooperation with high education institutions in Russia, including RS (Y) and foreign participants of the IPY, to organize scientific research thematic excursions

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Collected scientific information will be systematized and compiled into standard databases on the basis of electronic maps and GIS-technologies. This information will be placed on web sites in the Russian and English languages. Additionally, it will be systematized and presented in the form of practical recommendations to state and municipal authorities

How is it proposed to fund the project?
It is planned that the project will be funded via the Russian National IPY Committee. It is proposed that partial support will be rendered from the budget of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), as well by Russian and international research foundations

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
The Expression of Intent for activities in the IPY 2007-09 is submitted by different scientific and production organizations of the RS (Y), RF, each of which is responsible for one of the proposed focus areas/tasks. The regional project devoted to the comprehensive monitoring of the nature-social system condition, assessment of its evolution and development forecast, submitted to the IPY organizational committee, is supported by the Government of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia). It is proposed to implement the project in cooperation with many foreign partners participating in the IPY who plan to conduct research on the territory of Yakutia (TSP, ACCO-NET and other projects already supported by the IPY)

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Vladimir Vasiliev
Northern Forum Academy
Yakutsk
Sakha (Yakutia) Republic
677000
Russia

Tel: +7 4112 344046, 420013
Mobile: +7 914 220 9789
Fax: +7 4112 344046
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation