Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Vulnerability of Ice-Cored Environments  ( VICE)

Outline
Vulnerability of Ice-Cored Environments (VICE) Permafrost is a key component of the global cryosphere. Ground ice, particularly massive ground ice, is the main variable that will determine how permafrost will respond to global warming. Despite several reports that make predictions concerning regional melting of ice-rich permafrost (Lawrence and Slater 2005, Nelson et al. 2001) there is insufficient information about the nature and distribution of ground ice to make realistic predictions. The IPCC and ACIA reports identify thermokarst, active layer detachments and retrogressive thaw slumps as serious outcomes of global warming. Yet ground ice nature and distribution remains one of the least understood variables of the permafrost system. There is an immediate need for baseline information on ground ice vulnerability for a series of sites along a longitudinal gradient in the Arctic to fully assess the potential magnitude of this problem. There is also a need to assess the vulnerability of ground ice in ice-free areas of Antarctica and to undertake a bipolar comparison of ground ice sensitivity. The proposed research will involve an international team of researchers with experience in a wide range of ground ice problems. The over arching goal of this project is to assess the vulnerability of ice-cored permafrost landscapes to global warming. The specific aims include: (a) to map massive ice patterns in 3 areas along a longitudinal gradient in the Arctic and at a series of sites in Antarctica, (b) to relate massive ice distribution and ice-content profile to its origin (i.e. glacial vs. intrasedimental), (c) to predict thaw depths for a series of warming scenarios (d) to determine the amount, rate and extent of thaw subsidence along a longitudinal gradient in the Arctic and to compare with sites in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, and (e) using a combination of remote sensing, lidar surveys and ground based geophysics and gps construct a baseline DEM and ground ice map to monitor and assess current rates of thaw subsidence. This research will provide much needed information about the rate and magnitude of thermokarst for different latitudes that can be used by communities, governments and industry. Studies of ground stability and properties are an important aspect of analogue research and help answer vital questions for planetary exploration. Space exploration is a source of many valuable new technologies The Earth’s polar regions drive many global systems and with uncertainties about global climate change looming large the need for information about both Polar Regions has never been greater. As a polar nation Canada needs to be concerned with both the Arctic and the Antarctic as part of the global system.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This project will contribute to 5 of the 6 IPY themes. The proposed research will make advances on the present environmental status of ground ice the polar regions as will as quantifying natural environmental changes by characterizing thermokarst rates.. The analysis of ground ice senstivity will benefit both communities and the private sector from safety and security perspectives. This reseach will also identify linkages with global systems in the polar regions by developing transfer functions that link climate to thermokarst that will improve projections of future change. 1. New Frontiers: ground ice mapping technologies and remote sensing

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
United States – D. Andersen, C. McKay, J. Mullins, J. Heldmann New Zealand – W. Dickinson Great Britain – J. Murton Germany - V. Rackhold

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
1. High Arctic – Ellesmere and Axel Heiberg Islands, Eureka Sound Lowlands 2. Central Arctic – Northwest Victoria Island 3. Low Arctic – Mackenzie Delta, Yukon Coastal Plain 4. Antarctica - McMurdo Dry Valleys

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 07/06 – 08/06      06/07 – 08/07      06/08– 08/08
Antarctic: 10/08 – 01/09            

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Fieldwork in the Arctic will be undetaken from a series of camps requiring both twin otter and helicopter support. In addition twin otter support will be needed to fly digital imagery and lidar. Field work in the Antarctic will require helicopter support and fixed wing support for digital imagery and lidar.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
There are no plans for any permanent infrastructure, the legacy will be in the form of baseline data and a high resolution GIS for sites idntified as having a high potential for change.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
Own national polar operator
Another national polar operator
National agency
Commercial operator
Own support
Other sources of support

Polar Continental Shelf Support will be requested for fieldwork in the Canadian Arctic and a combination of New Zealand-US support in Antarctica from Antarctic new Zealand and VECCO respectively.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Yes

Although linked to previous work on ground ice the proposed project is an entirely new intiative that brings together experts in different areas to address questions about thenature, rate and extent of landscape change relatd to degrading ground ice.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will involve a project leader (Pollard) and lead PIs from each country who will be responsible for coordinating activities within their respective country. The project leader will coordinate all activities in the field and interface with lead Pis in a project management team.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Our main Education and Outreach efforts will be through community organizations, Territorial Science Institutes, Hamlet Councils, local schools and through territorial teacher education programs. We will also provide press release information to natioanl and local news papers and human interest magazines. We will maintain a web site with both detailed and general interest information, provide public and scientific lectures as well as more traditional scientific publications.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Data will be collected, synthesised, distributed, and archived in a manner which supports:- ISO metadata standards to promote data access and value, - an Arctic spatial data infrastructure, - web accessible databases, GIS maps, and remote sensing imagery. Links with other international efforts for data standardisation will be emphasised, in particular with IPY DIS (409). Monitoring data will be contributed to the WMO and IPA. IPA Standing Committee on Data, Information and Communications (SCDIC), will focus on data management and compliance with the IPY and SCAR data policies. The group will work with the IPY Data and Information Service (Mark Parsons, WDC Boulder) to coordinate polar data structures and dissemination techniques.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Funds will be requested from the Canadian IPY Program, NSERC & CSA ~ $C200,000 From NASA’s IPY Program ~ $US 200,000

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
This project will link with a series of other IPY and non IPY research projects. The following International IPY project numbers (17,33,50,55,86,105,239,262) have permafrost and ground ice as part of their central theme and are possible partners in a more global assessment of the susceptibility of ground ice terrains.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Professor Wayne Pollard
McGill University
Department of Geography, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke St. W.,
Montreal, Quebec
H3A 2K6
CANADA

Tel: 514 398-4454
Mobile: no
Fax: 514 398-7437
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation