Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

High resolution data assimilation, modelling and reanalysis for the Arctic  (A reanalysis of the IPY)

Outline
The International Polar Year 2007/2008 will provide new and unique opportunities to observe the atmosphere, hydrosphere and cryosphere at high latitudes. Ambitious surface- and space-based programs such as iAOOS will result in high quality observational databases that will help to improve our understanding of geophysical processes at these latitudes. However, to reap the full benefit of often disparate observations they have to be assembled into comprehensive analyses of the state of the atmosphere and ocean. Numerical models are used to fill spatial and temporal gaps in the observations through a process called data assimilation. This is often referred to as a reanalysis. At SMHI a coupled data assimilation and forecasting system for the atmosphere and the ocean has been developed. It is used, in different versions, for both short-range operational weather analyses and forecasts and for regional climate studies and simulations. Further development and improvement of these models will rely on high quality observations such as those expected from the IPY. A detailed high quality re-analysis of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere is essential for the validation and enhancement of the climate simulation system. Jointly with FMI in Finland SMHI has already carried out such a reanalysis for the Baltic Sea catchment area within the GEWEX BALTEX/BRIDGE project. The BRIDGE system is now being further developed and presently consists of the HIRLAM High Resolution Limited Area forecast model, a connected variational analysis system and an ocean model, HIROMB. The Polar Year data will be of great value for additional enhancements and tuning of the models and the data assimilation. One area of particular interest to SMHI is improved modelling of very stable atmospheric boundary layers. Another area is modelling of the snowpack on ice and land. This work will benefit both short-range operational weather forecasts and climate simulations and diagnostics. Northern Europe and particularly the Nordic countries are often affected by intense weather systems originating in the Arctic. For detailed fast-access operational forecasts, the available global forecasts have to be supplemented by frequent higher resolution limited area forecasts. In several Nordic countries the HIRLAM NWP system is used for this purpose. It is expected that the IPY activities will lead to considerable improvements of short-range high impact weather forecasts. The regional coupled climate simulation model (RCAO), developed at the SMHI Rossby Centre is also based on HIRLAM combined with an oceanic and a hydrologic model. It is used for regional climate simulations with particular emphasis on northern Europe and the Arctic. The simulation of the coupled Arctic system for 2007/2008 will be part of decadal simulations connecting earlier field campaigns with the upcoming IPY and they will also incorporate decadal variabilities. These cannot be addressed by pure observations. As a result we get improved models with better capabilities in e.g. climate change scenario simulations. A EUMESAT Climate Monitoring SAF will also be operating during the IPY. Another aspect of improved modeling capabilities resulting from the IPY effort is the enhancement of global models in the Arctic. This is where large amplitudes of global warming are to be expected according to scenario experiments with global climate models. At the same time differences between different global models tend to be largest here, pointing at the necessity of improved process descriptions either in the global models or in nested regional models. Such improvements can only be achieved by understanding and describing coupled arctic processes (e.g. role of freshwater runoff, interaction between Arctic and Atlantic Ocean, shelf-basin interaction, mixing processes, deepwater formation, ice-cloud-radiation interaction, sea ice processes, sea ice export, variability of the Arctic vortex and sea ice etc) in more accurate ways. This implies model development in close interaction with observation- based validation for inter-decadal simulation periods. Such work is indispensable for more realistic studies on large scale decadal variability and long-term climate change. The IPY is a unique possibility to progress in this field. In particular, SMHI will carry out sensibility and predictability studies based on an ensemble setup of the regional arctic model RCAO. SMHIs efforts will be coordinated with relevant international Arctic projects such as AOMIP, ARCMIP, CARE and THORPEX

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Improved models for meso-scale data assimilation and forecasts in polar regions. High resolution comprehensive analyses of the coupled polar atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. More realistic regional climate simulations for high latitudes.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
HIRLAM is consortium for joint development of high resolution numerical weather analysis and prediction consisting of several European National Weather Services in the Nordic countries, the Netherlands, the Irish Republic and Spain. There is also a cooperation agreement between the HIRLAM consortium and MeteoFrance.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
There are no field activities planned for this project.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Expansion

This project aims at further enhancement of existing models with particular emphasis on the Arctic. Regional climate simulations and operational short-range forecasts will benefit from the effort. A further goal is better understanding of fundamental processes in the coupled air/sea/ice system.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be carried out and managed by the Research Department of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. SMHI is a partner in the EU Framework 6 project proposal DAMOCLES. Within DAMOCLES the modelling and reanalysis effort is a joint activity between SMHI and MetNo in Norway. It is envisaged that an IPY connection of the present project will support further applications of funding.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The high resolution re-analyses of the Arctic atmosphere/ocean during the IPY will be made available to the scientific community. Scientific results will be published in the usual way in the literature.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Re-analyses archived at SMHI or elsewhere in WMO GRIB format. Exchanged by suitable electronic media.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
We hope for funding through the DAMOCLES proposal and the intention is also to apply for national funds.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Per Kallberg
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
76 Norrköping
S-601
Sweden

Tel: +46 11 495 8517
Mobile: no
Fax: +46 11 495 8001
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation