Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Vulnerability and adaptation of South Greenland economies to natural variability in the multi-year ice coverage  (VASGE)

Outline
Preliminary analysis at the Danish Meteorological Institute and the Ice Patrol in Narsarsuaq of the historic heterogeneous datasets describing the multi-year ice coverage and navigational conditions in the south Greenland region shows that the region is characterized by large inherent decadal scale variability in the multi-year ice-coverage. The recent period since the early 1990s in general represents optimal conditions for navigation with a few exceptions. Moreover, the analysis back to the 1950’s reveals repeated time intervals of up to five years with significantly enhanced ice-coverage. Presumably, difficult or even dangerous navigational conditions prevail during a number of successive summer seasons in these periods, however the present state of data is still too heterogeneous to describe the conditions in such detail. Despite that the magnitude and abruptness of these changes may well serve a more serious and immediate thread to the new economies in the area than changes related to global warming, an assessment of the socioeconomic impacts and possibilities for adaptation to such multi-year natural variations has not previously been addressed, likely linked to the lack of data on sea-ice. In contrast, the impacts of climatic change related to global warming within the next century has received much attention (e.g. the Arctic Climate Assessment Report). The present project seeks to integrate natural and socioeconomic sciences in describing past, natural variability of multi-year-ice (Storis) and its impact on present and future activities in the south Greenland region. Focus will be put on past, present and future renewable resource exploitation and navigational conditions with the aim of assessing the vulnerability of resource accessibility, tourism, mining and oil exploration activities to the large natural variations characterizing the area in the historic data available. In addition, the dataset on multiyear ice produced within the project will be a valuable scientific contribution to the International Polar Year. Objectives I. To build a homogeneous digital dataset of past ice conditions for the southern Greenland area back to 1950. II. To describe the characteristics and origin of the natural ice-variations in the area with focus on the navigational conditions. III. To describe means of adaptation to natural variations and their socio-economic implications in relation to the exploration of renewable resources, i.e. fisheries, hunting, and farming, as well as the implications for other socio-economic activities. IV. To identify and quantify the vulnerability of new economic activities in the area related to documented natural extremes.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Advances is expected within IPY Themes #1 (Current state of the environment), #2 (Change in the polar regions) and #6 (The human dimension in polar regions) by: Building a homogeneous digital dataset of past ice conditions for the southern Greenland area (#1), Describing the characteristics and origin of the natural ice-variations (#2). Identifying means of adaptation to natural variations and their socio-economic implications in relation to the exploration of renewable resources (#2). Identifying and quantifying the vulnerability of new economic activities related to documented natural extremes (#2#6).

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The specific project integrating socioeconomic and natural sciences involves partners from Denmark and Greenland only, including the Danish Meteorological Institute, Ice Patrol Narsarsuaq, Greenland, Roskilde University Centre, Denmark and The Greenland Home Rule. However, the project is established as an overarching activity of a number of international project with involvement by the group members.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Field work includes interviews regarding major hunting, fishing and farming activities in south Greenland communities.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 09/07 – 10/08            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
The project field work do not require significant logistic support but can be carried out using existing infrastructure.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Integration and digitization of historic paper ice charts by using modern GIS technology to the most recent digital ice charting standards is a key outcome of the project. At present there is a constant risk that the historic data on paper is lost and this work serves the additional purpose of securing this historic ice information for the future in a format which can be used by scientific or public user groups.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Commercial operator

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
No - The project presently seeks endorsement at both national (Danish) and international levels.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Yes

This new project is defined by the combined environmental and socio-economic analysis relating to the adaptation and vulnerability of south Greenland economies. The Centre for Ocean and Ice and Ice-Patrol Narsarsuaq will continuously update of the project database on multi-year ice conditions as part of their operational tasks.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The specific project is lead by Steffen M. Olsen (Danish Meteorological Institute) and includes a scientific committee with representatives for each participating institution and group.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Student are involved in the retrieval and digitalization of historic ice-charts and in the field work. The group has close contacts with potential users as part of their operational and governmental duties. A project seminar will be aimed at the scientific community, politicians and industry.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Each participating institution has the responsibility for quality control of the data, and to submit them to a common data base. The data will be made available for the international community following the general principles.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
The project is already partially funded by The Commission for Scientific Research in Greenland. Additional funding relies on national (Danish) grants.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Steffen Malskær Olsen
Danish Meteorological Institute, Centre for Ocean and Ice
Lyngbyvej 100
Copenhagen, 2100
2100
Denmark

Tel: (+45) 39157217
Mobile: no
Fax: (+45) 39157300
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation