Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Improvement of Arctic regional climate models by coordinated model intercomparison and measurements  (Arctic regional climate models)

Outline
The goal of the proposed activity is the improvement of regional Arctic climate models which has a high relevance for getting more reliable estimates of future regional Arctic climate changes. The strategy involves the evaluation of a hierarchy of Arctic regional models (atmosphere-alone, ocean/ice-alone, and coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice models) and the fetch of new observations as well as the use of already available data sets (like satellite data). We propose a similar idea conducted by the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment which was focussed on the Western Arctic (Beaufort Sea) in 1997/98. Due to numerous measurents, now proposed for the entire Arctic, by coordinated ship and platform routes, an model evaluation and intercomparison will help to understand and quantify the model errors. On this basis, the physical parameterizations needed for the specific Arctic processes and the overall model performance will be improved. Such an approach has been started with the Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison (ARCMIP)and the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison (AOMIP) projects. The new idea is to broaden this approach by including coupled regional models whereby it should be noted that the construction of such coupled models is a recent development. Additionally, the recent regional model development goes in to the direction to include more advanced landsurface and permafrost schemes. These developments will allow us to investigate the complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, hydrosphere, and sea ice subsystems. The understanding of the seasonal and longer term variability of the Arctic climate system as a whole is required to get more credible estimates of future climate changes. A general problem in the evaluation of Arctic climate simulations is that the few available observations are sparsely distributed in space and time. A coordinated observational effort would help to improve this situation. Beside ship routes, automated drifting ice-based observatories should be key elements in such an effort.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Significant improvements of Arctic atmospheric, coupled ice-ocean, and coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean regional models are expected. These improved simulations will be used for delivering new estimates of future climate changes in the Arctic on the regional scale.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The project is based on a very strong international collaboration. The needed collaboration is already sucessfully established by two big internationally coordinated groups/projects: the ARCMIP (Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project) and the AOMIP (Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project). Both projects strongly interact to each other and involve the internationally leading Arctic modeling groups.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Location : The study area of the activity is the pan-Arctic. All data from the ship routes coordinated during IPY will be used . A key element are automated drifting ice-based observatories which should be located on various places around the Arctic to cover the different climate conditions.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 01/2006-12/2008            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
ship routes - automated drifting ice-based observatories - radiosounding by the common meterological stations

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
No

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own national polar operator
Another national polar operator
National agency
Own support
Other sources of support

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
A copy of the proposed activity is given to the German IPY committe.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Expansion

The project is a continuation of the ARCMIP and AOMIP projects and will be extended to include additionally an intercomparison project for coupled regional climate models.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be organized and managed within the ARCMIP and AOMIP structures.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?

How is it proposed to fund the project?

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Pro Klaus Dethloff
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
Telegrafenberg A43
Potsdam
14473
Germany

Tel: +49 331 2882124
Mobile: no
Fax: +49 331 2882178
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation