Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Dynamic response of Greenland outlet glaciers to Arctic warming  (ISBRÆ)

Outline
Satellite imagery has revealed that coastal regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet are thinning rapidly by up to several metres per year (Abdalati et al., 2001). This is caused by increased surface ablation due to climatic warming as well as changes in the flow rate of major outlet glaciers (Joughin et al., 2004). These two factors are usually treated as separate processes. However, Zwally et al. (2002) presented evidence for penetration of surface meltwater to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet and coincident ice flow acceleration due to increased basal sliding. The aims of this project are to (1) observe how ice ablation due to atmospheric and oceanic warming affect the motion of major outlet glaciers in Greenland, (2) couple glacier hydrology and ice dynamics in numerical models, and (3) quantify freshwater release to the North Atlantic from Greenland ice mass loss under plausible Arctic warming scenarios. These aims are important because ice thinning will cause ablation zones to increase. Greenland’s outlet glaciers are thus likely to respond sensitively to Arctic warming, which is estimated at 4-7 Degrees Celcius during this century (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004). The Greenland Ice Sheet may therefore be in a ‘dangerous’ state of change with ice thinning and flow acceleration enhancing each other. Here, we propose a glaciological investigation of major outlet glaciers in four coastal corners of Greenland. The major objective of this investigation is to measure ice motion in high temporal resolution while monitoring climatic conditions and meltwater runoff. Potential field targets are Helheim Glacier (SE), Jacobshavn Isbræ (SW), Petermann Glacier (NW) and the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. The former two glaciers are in relatively close proximity to major townships but logistics will be demanding for the latter two. Nonetheless, northern outlet glaciers may respond very sensitively to climatic warming because their ice dynamics are unaccustomed to large amounts of surface meltwater and this warrants assessment during IPY 2007-08. Project components: 1. Remote sensing survey 2. Aerogeophysical survey 3. Glaciological field investigation 4. Numerical modelling References: Abdalati, W. and 9 others, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 33,729-33,741. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004, Cambridge University Press. Joughin, I. and 2 others, 2004, Nature, 432, 608-610. Zwally, J.H. and 5 others, 2002, Science, 297, 218-222.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The ISBRÆ project dovetails with several IPY themes. The fieldwork will capture a snapshot of the present glacial state (theme 1). However, continuous surveying with GPR and AWS should comprise anomalous climatic events that will give valuable new information on response dynamics of the glaciers (theme 2). Information on ice flow fluctuations on a diurnal timescale will be used to model atmospheric forcing of large glacier systems with the aim of improving parameterization of the cryosphere in global climate models (theme 3). The large glacier systems in Greenland’s far north constitute a largely unknown frontier of polar research (theme 4).

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The ISBRÆ project is a collaboration between polar scientists in UK, USA and Denmark/Greenland. Further international collaboration is anticipated when the project progresses into a funding stage aimed for NERC (UK), ESF (EU), NSF and NASA (USA), and SNF (DK).

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
This project targets outlet glaciers in four coastal regions of Greenland. Potential field targets are Helheim Glacier (SE), Jacobshavn Isbræ (SW), Petermann Glacier (NW) and the Northeast Grenland Ice Stream, although other glaciers are in consideration.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 07/2007 - 08/2007      07/2008 - 08/2008      07/2009 - 08/2009
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
The main logistical requirements are transportation, field camps, equipment, and support for aerogeophysics. Ice corer, fabric analyser, cold room, and AWS’s are available to BH and PC. ST provides radar sounder and GPS units. IJ and JB supply satellite imagery. Fieldwork may be facilitated through collaboration with other IPY activities.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The project will leave a legacy in the sense of a logistical arrangement that may facilitate use in other IPY projects while also providing a basic structure for future projects. This is important because the logistical support for glaciological fieldwork in Greenland is underdeveloped.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
Own national polar operator
Another national polar operator
National agency
Military support
Commercial operator
Own support
Other sources of support

Some logistical support may arise from PC’s contacts at The Centre for Arctic Technology / Sanaartornermik Ilinniarfik in Sisimiut.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
The ISBRÆ project is a new autonomous proposal.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New

This is a new autonomous IPY proposal, which brings together polar scientists from UK, USA and Denmark/Greenland.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be organised and managed by an international steering committee consisting of Jonathan Bamber (UK); Carl Bøggild (DK); Poul Christoffersen (UK); Rene Forsberg (DK), Bryn Hubbard (UK), Ian Joughin (USA); Niels Reeh (DK); and Slawek Tulaczyk (USA). The expertise of this group covers remote sensing (JB, IJ); Aerogeophysics (CB; NR; RF); Glacier hydrology and ice dynamics (BH; CB; IJ; JB; NR; PC; ST); and numerical modelling (IJ; NR; PC; ST). PC and ST will chair the committee jointly. A funding strategy will be conceived during Spring 2005 and the committee will have annual meetings when funding is secured.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The steering committee will manage and encourage interest by the public. News clips and websites will be parts hereof together with provision of seminars for scientific and educational communities. PC’s contacts at Sanaartornermik Ilinniarfik in Sisimiut will ensure local outreach while adding a human/indigenous dimension to the project.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Data will be managed by the steering committee, which intends to maximise the use of public websites and online portals such as the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
The ISBRÆ project is structured so that funding can be proposed to national agencies in UK, USA, EU and Denmark/Greenland. The UK component will focus on funding initiatives by NERC, e.g. Arctic-IPY, although other national/regional agencies will be involved equally, e.g. NSF and NASA (USA), ESF (EU), and SNF (Denmark).

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
The importance of understanding the behaviour of the Greenland Ice Sheet is evident from the ongoing debate on thermohaline circulation and climate change. New findings show that dramatic changes in the flow of individual outlet glaciers in Greenland are affecting not only mass and energy balance of the ice sheet, but global sea level directly (Joughin, 2004). The need to improve our understanding of Greenland’s outlet glaciers is thus becoming imperative and a quantitative assessment of their response to Arctic warming is an important Arctic objective for IPY 2007-08.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Poul Christoffersen
Centre for Glaciology
Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences
University of Wales, Aberystwyth
SY23 3DB
UK

Tel: +44 (0) 1970 622 591
Mobile: no
Fax: +44 (0) 1970 622 659
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation