Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

The Study of Short-Term Arctic Sea Ice Predictability: Sea ice forecast research in support of International Ice Chart Working Group (IICWG) requirements  (IICWG – Sea Ice Forecast Research)

Outline
Ice is extremely dangerous to indigenous peoples and fishermen who work near the rapidly changing ice edge (change in PRs). For operations in these regions, there is high demand for high-quality sea ice forecasts. Moreover, the proper characterization and assimilation of both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice conditions in numerical weather prediction systems and in operational ocean models is imperative for robust northern hemisphere weather and ocean prediction (Global links). Current ice forecasting systems show negligible skill [Van Woert et al., JAOT 2004], pointing to the urgent need for developing this capability.In support of sea ice forecasting requirements in the Arctic, the co-chairmen of the International Ice Chart Working Group (IICWG) recently sent a letter to the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) expressing the need for 1) an improved Arctic observing system and 2) the development of models and algorithms that better utilize these data.Responding to the second issue and in the spirit of the First Global GARP Experiment, we propose to develop a coordinated international research program that is focused on understanding and developing techniques for sea ice data utilization (assimilation in coupled ocean ice models). Most international weather forecasting efforts are focused on direct assimilation of observed parameters, for example satellite radiances, into models. The proposed program will take advantage of the substantial investment in observations that will occur during the IPY, but will focus on the many sea ice specific issues that need to be addressed if sea ice forecasting is to be improved. That is: 1) What are the most appropriate ice models to use for forecasting? 2) What data provide the most significant forecast improvements (radiances, ice motion, ice concentration estimates, snow thickness, satellite and in situ ice thickness data?) 3) What is the optimal assimilation scheme for the various data: objective mapping, kalman filtering, 3-D var, and 4-D var? 4) What ocean and atmospheric models should be used to force the sea ice model and how should they be coupled to the ice model. 5) What are the error characteristics of the data and models? How does one deal with the non-Gaussian nature of some fields?Key to the success of this endeavour is a robust observing system to initialize and validate the models. Model improvements and the incorporation of refined parameterizations into the models that are developed during the IPY would enhance the quality and success of this program.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
If successful, this project would result in an accurate near-real-time sea ice forecasting system (predictions) for the Arctic region that would support the needs of commerce and transportation in the Arctic, as well as the needs of the northern indigenous peoples (Theme 2). An assimilation system with optimal use of ice observations in a coupled ice ocean model can also be an efficient tool for climate monitoring in polar areas. It would also likely lead to improvements in northern hemisphere weather forecasts, because sea ice is an important, but poorly specified boundary condition in weather models. The resulting datasets would support studies of polar-global linkages (Themes 1 and 3).

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
This letter is being submitted on behalf of the International Ice Chart Working Group (IICWG), which is comprised of members from 11 Arctic Nations. In turn, IICWG is closely interrelated with the WMO/IOC/JCOMM Expert Team on Sea Ice (ETSI) and works as a technical advisory group to ETSI. Eight countries have proposed to participate in this science activity, but the results will have broader international impact. Each of these countries will be submitting national IPY proposals focused on this theme.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The goal of the system is to develop pan-Arctic forecast capabilities. Depending on the mission of the individual national ice center, there may also be a regional focus to the program. No specific fieldwork is proposed to support this activity. Rather we propose to leverage off of the abundant observations planned for the IPY.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Broad bandwidth data communications, rapid data access, and appropriate computing facilities will be required. This activity could be located at a national computing or data center to leverage existing resources and infrastructure. A site associated with the ESA funded Polarview program and/or the U.S. Joint Center for Data Assimilation would be two logical locations for this activity.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
It will leave an operational forecast system that will support international interests in “safety at sea”, commerce, and transportation.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
National agency

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Yes, This proposal has been “endorsed” and is being submitted on behalf of the International Ice Chart Working Group (IICWG)

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
yes

This is a new project. That would benefit from start-up during the IPY. However, we would also expect the activities within this project to build on the results of previously funded projects, such as the ESA PolarView project, sea ice data assimilation currently work being performed at the UK Met Office, and the United States Joint Center for Data Assimilation.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The program sponsors would need to be involved in the management of the individual national programs. Broader oversight and international coordination for the project would best be accomplished through a science steering committee chaired by the co-chairmen of the International Ice Chart Working Group (IICWG).

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The sea ice products will be provided to the public in near-real-time via the existing national ice center web pages. In addition, the products will be made available to customers via the European Space Agency supported PolarView program interface.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
All of the countries involved in this proposal have an existing national ice center charged with the production and dissemination of sea ice products such as these. In addition, all of the counties have national data repositories. Data management for this activity will be coordinated through the existing ice centers and the data will be archived at one or more national data archives (such as the National Snow and Ice Data Center).

How is it proposed to fund the project?
It is proposed that individual national research sponsors provide funding for their participation in the program. However, international funding from the IPY project office would allow true international collaboration and would significantly enhance the quality and effectiveness of this effort.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
The full letter from the co-chairmen of the IICWG to the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) stating the collective unmet needs of the international organizations charged with provide sea ice forecasts to the public is available at: http://nsidc.org/noaa/iicwg/GEO_DATA_Utilization_060904.docIt is important to reiterate, products from this system will be made available to the broader community in near-real-time, and in that way should support the broader IPY effort.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Chief Scientist, U. S. National Ice Center Michael Van Woert
U.S. National Ice Center
C/O NOAA/NESDIS/OSDPD E/SP, 5200 Auth Road, FOB #4, Room 1069
Suitland, MD
20746
USA

Tel: (301) 394-3105
Mobile: no
Fax: (301) 394-3200
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation