Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

The Economy of the North: Impacts and effects of climate change in the Arctic  (ECONOR)

Outline
The climate is changing, and nowhere is this more strongly expressed than in the Arctic. This is one of the main conclusions from The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). These changes are likely to pose challenges to the flexibility of indigenous peoples and local communities dependent on the ecosystems as well as the regional industries. However, the impacts of climate change in the Arctic are also likely to have profound global impacts, as climate change is likely to enhance the economic importance of this relatively pristine part of the world. As sea ice retreats, transport in the Arctic will increase. The biological, mineral and energy resources of the region will become more accessible to the outside world, increasing competition for these resources, and tourism, reindeer herding, agriculture and forestry will probably all experience more favourable conditions under a warmer climate. Expected growth in economic activity may in turn lead to further stress on an already vulnerable environment. While ACIA had a strong focus on the physical and cultural impacts of climate change, market based economic activities in the region received less attention. The market based economic activity in the Arctic is, however, a potentially important part of the global economic system, providing raw materials like minerals, petroleum and fish to the world community. Although detailed studies have been carried out in some regions (typically North America) and on some types of activity (e.g. shipping and the North East passage), quantitative knowledge about the totality of these types of activities in the Arctic is still scarce. Naturally, even less is known about the likely impacts of climate change on these types of market based economic activities. The proposed study will, as a follow up to the ACIA, focus on providing a deeper, quantitative and systematic understanding of the market based economic activities in the Arctic and its linkages to the world economy today and in the future under a changing climate. It will do this by Establishing a first draft of a "national account" for the Arctic. An economic model of the Arctic region, coupled to the world economy, will be established and used to construct scenarios under various assumptions about future climatic change.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The project will provide an opportunity for establishing a more permanent network of national and international economists with an interest in "The Economy of the North". In cooperation with natural science disciplines the project will increase our understanding of how climatic change may impact the regional economies, as well as the global economy. Thus the project will provide a foundation for further studies of topics of importance to the region as well as a broader international constituency. International security issues related to generally improved access to natural resources, and development of arctic sources and sinks for carbon in a changing climate are but two example of potentially important topics.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The project will be carried out in close collaboration with statistical offices and research institutes in the Arctic countries with Statistics Norway as project coordinator. A steering committee consisting of scientists with relevant background from all collaborative partners should provide guidance to, and quality control of, the project.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
No fieldwork is anticipated.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
No logistic support/facilities will be required.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
No

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Yes, The project is recognized as an Arctic Council project.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?


Component of an existing or planned activity: Extension of a small pilot project currently running with funding from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

How will the project be organised and managed?
A steering committee consisting of scientists with relevant background from all collaborative partners should provide guidance to, and quality control of, the project. Statistics Norway is project leader institution.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Changes in the economic activity in the north are important for the social impacts of climatic change. We will thus communicate our results to a wide and cross-disciplinary audience. Authorities in the Arctic nations responsible for Arctic policies and the Arctic Council participants will be particularly focused. Results from the economic studies will furthermore be communicated to conferences and organisations focusing on the natural science aspect of a changing climate in the Arctic.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Data is to be distributed to the Statistical offices of the Arctic countries.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Funding through Nordic Council of Ministers, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Research Council of Norway is sought.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Director of Research Knut Halvor Alfsen
Statistics Norway
P.O.Box 8131 Dep
Oslo
0033
Norway

Tel: +47 21 09 49 14
Mobile: +47 920 33 466
Fax: +47 21 09 00 40
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation