Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Antarctic Peninsula Ice and Climate System Initiative  (APICS)

Outline
Recent events in the Antarctic Peninsula demonstrate that ice and climate systems can change rapidly in a warming world. To date, access to the most active regions has been limited, and little baseline data exist. However, studies based on remote sensing and the available in situ data show that a complex interaction is underway, involving surface and basal melting of the ice; fracturing; melt percolation; seasonal changes in ice flow; and rapid glacial acceleration in the aftermath of shelf break-up. As the shelves disintegrate, they uncover a glacial history preserved on the sea-floor indicating the current retreats are rare to unprecedented in the Holocene. Biological and oceanographic studies are active along the western coast; but even basic ecosystem and oceanographic data are unavailable for the rapidly changing eastern side.We propose an international program of logistical cooperation and scientific collaboration to measure, model, and monitor the ongoing climate and glaciological changes in the AP, using the results to forecast future evolution of this and other shelf-glacier systems. Our field science program will aim to install new automated observing stations at selected sites, having a new array of sensors designed to monitor pertinent glaciological and geophysical parameters as well as weather. During the installations, we propose to gather baseline data on ice motion, thickness, structure, and internal temperature. We plan to further investigate the sea-floor sedimentary record, promote ongoing west coast ecosystem research, and initiate a program of biological and oceanographic observation along the eastern coast to track how ice and climate changes are affecting ecosystems there. Remote-sensing-based studies will continue, using both new and existing tools.We propose a coordinated logistical plan combining US, UK, Chilean, and Argentine airborne and ground assets in an innovative way, and make use of already-planned US research vessel cruises. It is our hope that the logistical paths established as part of IPY will lead to continuing cooperation in the Peninsula in following years.We will establish an APICS web forum, and convene APICS workshops (building on recent meetings at Hamilton College and SPRI) that will provide a venue for discussing results, promoting outreach, and planning research activities.The Antarctic Peninsula may well be a model for a future, warmer Antarctica. What we see there are events of greater scale, speed, and magnitude than were considered possible before. APICS seeks understand this system and its responses to know what the future may hold.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Research and Themes 1, 2, 3, and 5: The Peninsula’s changes have major implications for future sea level rise. The most significant finding is the implied sensitivity and non-linear response of large shelf-glacier systems: events in the Peninsula suggest sudden, not gradual, changes. Geologically, a better understanding of past retreats and re-growth, and the biological effects of changes in temperature and ice extent, will provide a better foundation for outlining the future of Earth’s ice and peri-glacial ecosystems.Theme 4: We propose to use up-to-date off-the-shelf technology to integrate several sensors and data recording/ data transmitting devices to significantly upgrade the automated observation of ice, climate, and geophysical parameters.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The co-signing investigators and their collaborators include scientists from the US, UK, Chile, Argentina, and Germany, representing all major research groups that are active in the region. Logistically, we plan to merge US-program aircraft (Twin Otters) with support and fuel at the UK’s Rothera station. Research personnel and research equipment may be delivered via Chilean or Argentine C-130 aircraft to the Teniente Carvajal and Marambio bases.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
We plan ground based field work at the remaining Larsen B shelf, and northern and southern sites on the Larsen C. We intend to survey the Crane, Flask, Leppard, and a Larsen C glacier, and the Mobiloil inlet region. Two sites on western Peninsula glaciers, (e.g. Fleming Gl.) are also proposed. Access to some glacier sites may come via ship-based helicopter (on the N. B. Palmer), operating from the eastern coast. Associated biological work will be conducted at the Sobral Peninsula, Robertson Island, and Jason Peninsula.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: 09/2007 – 10/2007      (02/2008 ship+helo)      09/2008 – 10/2009

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
US Twin Otters will be used early in their transit to the McMurdo area, with minimal impact on the ~Nov1-Jan30 season there. Ship time on the NPB is already planned for the Peninsula area, but helo ops have yet to be allocated for this cruise; helo support if approved could be shared. Rothera air facility would stage AN-8 fuel delivered by both/either US and UK supply ship; Palmer/McMurdo would provide weather forecast support for the Peninsula flight ops in Sept/Oct.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Yes, in the form of long-term automated observing stations, new lines of research in biological changes on the eastern Peninsula, new international logistical and scientific linkages, and a new forum (workshop and website) for discussion and outreach.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
National agency
Military support
Commercial operator
Other sources of support

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
No, The APICS concept has been discussed with program managers at US-NSF, and a closely related project, ‘TRAPIS’ has been reviewed at British Antarctic Survey. TRAPIS is being re-submitted, linked to APICS. (TRAPIS: Thinning and Retreat of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet.)

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?


In truth, it is a little of both. APICS represents a new level of coordination among existing and planned research in the AP, and at the same time seeks to put together (for the first time, in the case of the US) the logistical components necessary for a significant international field effort on the ice.

How will the project be organised and managed?
In a manner similar to the WAIS Initiative, a steering committee will meet regularly to discuss and develop the APICS science plan (with contributions from all), maintain communications with the several international funding agencies and program managers, and evaluate how to best use the limited logistical resources to address science questions. More broadly, the interested science community will meet at annual APICS Initiative meetings to present recent work and identify the current best questions to pursue.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?

How is it proposed to fund the project?
•Funding sought via separate national science funding organizations. •Much already underway, or planned for 2005. •APICS proposals would cite ICSU/WMO ‘IPY’ approval and APICS science plan. •Initial funding (meetings, science planning, and development of automated instrumentation) proposed to NSF-OPP in June 2005; •NASA and CECS funds for continued remote sensing work are pending•US Vessel research is ongoing•BAS funds are being solicited under ‘TRAPIS’, 2005.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
APICS seeks to emulate the success of the WAIS Intiative, combining that forum of scientific exchange with an international logistical structure to support field activities in the AP. It will promote innovative measurement approaches (remote sensing, lightweight field programs, automated in situ obs.) to compensate for the difficult logistical hurdles.The list of interested scientists is much longer than can be shown below. At the two previous meetings, in Hamilton College (2002) and SPRI (2004), over 50 scientists attended and presented work. The 2002 meeting resulted in Volume 79 of the Antarctic Research Series; the 2004 meeting presentations may be seen at www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/AP2004. Many students and young scientists are involved.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr. Ted Scambos
National Snow and Ice Data Center, CIRES
University of Colorado
1540 30th Street Rm 218. Boulder CO
80309-0449
USA

Tel: 303 492 1113
Mobile: 303 378 4414
Fax: 303 492 2468
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation