Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Arctic System Reanalysis  (ASR)

Outline
As the first reanalysis to incorporate multiple components of the climate system, the ASR is built around three primary activities:a) Development of a high resolution (30 km horizontal or finer) coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-terrestrial data assimilation system optimized for the Arctic region (north of 45ºN, to include the complete terrestrial Arctic drainage). b) Use of this optimized system in conjuction with a quality-controlled assimilation data base (enhanced as much as possible through “data mining” efforts) in a reanalysis framework (the “Arctic System Reanalysis”, or ASR) in order to produce high-quality, physically consistent fields of climatically relevant variables extending back several decades, fostering Arctic climate research on seasonal to interdecadal time scales. c) Evolution of the ASR into an operational analysis system with optimal near-real time data assimilation. This effort will foster Arctic climate monitoring, provide improved short- to medium-range weather forecasts in the Arctic, and provide improved seasonal climate outlooks. The ASR requires an on-going observational program to provide the data required for model testing and operational use.The upper ocean model should ideally allow for assimilation of biological variables so that ecological forecasts are possible in the future.Interaction with global reanalysis activities will be necessary to ensure that optimal lateral boundary conditions are imposed on the ASR.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
A concerted effort during the IPY (2007-2008) to construct pan-Arctic atmosphere-ocean-ice-land data sets, and to assimilate and enhance these with a high-resolution (coupled) reanalysis system optimized for the Arctic region, will provide researchers with an unprecedented description of the Arctic environment over the past several decades. The operational analysis system (post 2008) expected to be a legacy of this activity would provide constantly updated depictions of the Arctic environment, and foster improved short- and medium-range weather forecasts as well as seasonal climate outlooks. Improved understanding of Arctic climate processes resulting from development of the ASR will lead to better global climate models, in turn reducing uncertainty in projected future climate states of the Arctic. The ASR will also serve as a vehicle for diagnostic evaluation of ongoing changes in the Arctic system.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Links will be developed with the developing international THORPEX (http://www.wmo.int/thorpex) that is interested in IPY activities that overlap those of interest to ASR, namely model development, data assimilation improvement, numerical weather prediction, and expansion of high latitude atmospheric monitoring, especially for the Arctic.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The atmospheric domain for the ASR will likely be all regions north of about 45ºN to encompass the complete terrestrial Arctic drainage for closure of the Arctic freshwater budget.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: TBC            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
One or more modeling centers will be needed to develop the appropriate sub-models of the integrated system, and one or more data centers will need to develop data ingest and archival routines. Concerted efforts will be needed to develop optimal strategies for the assimilation of satellite data.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The legacy will be of several types: a) high quality, physically consistent multi-decadal data sets of Arctic atmospheric and ocean climate variables; b) a high resolution numerical weather prediction model for the Arctic leading to improved forecast skill; c) an operational system for analysis and monitoring of Arctic processes and change, and for the provision of seasonal outlooks.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
National agency

yes, This project has been submitted to the U.S. National Committee for the IPY for review.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Yes

Preliminary work has been done in the U.S. to build upon the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) performed by NOAA and the ERA-40 global reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This preliminary work has included evaluation of the Arctic performance of existing reanalysis efforts and initial data assimilation experiments.

How will the project be organised and managed?
It is proposed that an international Project Steering Committee for the ASR be established, composed of climate scientists and modelers who are interested in developing the ASR. The U.S. envisions supporting some members of the Steering Committee and providing partial financial support for it. Support for the ASR itself will be sought from U.S. national agencies. Additional science expertise and financial support will be needed from other nations. The ASR concept fits well with the goals of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) program, so the WCRP is an obvious avenue to help coordinate international participation. It is envisioned that ECMWF could take an active role. The ASR would benefit from efforts to improve Arctic physics in the ERA-40 system. Ongoing reanalysis activities in Japan represent another potential bridge to international participation.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The ASR is an activity ideally suited for entraining graduate students and young scientists from participating countries and from the developing nations. It is assumed that much of the activity will take place in academic institutions that will involve students in the project. The ASR will provide a rich source of material for diagnostic studies by students and other Arctic researchers. NOAA and likely others will employ web-based data analysis/visualization tools for disseminating results to the broad community. This may be built upon tools already developed by the NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC, Boulder, Colorado) for support of the existing NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research). The Project Steering Committee will develop more detailed approaches for this issue.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
By definition, data management is an intrinsic component of the ASR. Existing data centers will perform the long-term archival functions and will work closely with the involved observing programs and modeling centers to obtain data for archival.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
A mix of research and operational agencies should fund the project. The Project Steering Committee will stimulate submission of coordinated proposals in late 2005 and early 2006 to meet various agency deadlines.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
The concept of the ASR has been developed within the U. S. as a key element of the interagency Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH). Implementation requires access to climate data from throughout the Arctic to enhance the exiting assimilation database. While a single modeling center (such as NCEP) might be able to run the reanalysis, system development will need input from the most skilled atmosphere, terrestrial, ocean and ice modelers from many countries. For the operational (near real-time) analysis, several modeling centers may wish to participate, tailoring the system to their own special needs. Improved short- to medium-range weather forecasts will benefit all circumpolar nations. Seasonal outlooks for the Arctic represent a potentially valuable cutting-edge application of the ASR in conjunction with global climate prediction activities. Furthermore, a common modeling framework, available to all interested nations, can serve as a focal point for exchange of ideas and further coordinated model development.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr John Calder
NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research R/AR
1315 East West Highway, Room 11362
Silver Spring, Maryland
20910-3282
USA

Tel: 301-713-2518 ext. 146
Mobile: 301-938-8847
Fax: 301-713-2519
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation