Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Predicting the effect of climate change on the migrations and reproductive success of arctic breeding waders  (Climate change and arctic waders)

Outline
Shorebirds (Charadrii) form an important part of the avifauna and thus the biodiversity of arctic (tundra) landscapes. Most of the species breeding in the circumpolar region are long-distance migrants wintering either in temperate or tropical coastal habitats both North and South of the equator, congregating on the way in spectacular numbers in areas like the Wadden Sea and Copper River Delta. Global climate change may affect these birds both in their winter and migration stopover sites (sea level rise, availability of intertidal habitats), during the migratory flights (wind conditions) and in the breeding range (climatic breeding conditions, vegetation belts). To understand and predict the consequences of climate change at the population level, the cumulative and interactive ramifications of these effects need to be studied. Over the past years, ‘dynamic migration models’ have been developed that achieve this (Weber et al. 1994, 1998, 1999, Clark & Butler 1999, Klaassen 2001). A central point in the models is the relationship between arrival date and arrival condition on the one hand, and breeding success on the other (Ens et al. 1994). It is the interplay between this ‘terminal reward function’ and (mortality) factors operating in the wintering grounds and along the migration routes that determines the optimal strategy and its associated reproductive output. Climate change will affect the outcome of the models by changing the properties of staging sites (e.g. rate of fuel deposition) or wind conditions en route (e.g. fuel loss during flight), while changes in the breeding areas may affect the terminal reward function itself (e.g. the optimal laying date). Three years of fieldwork in Taimyr, Siberia (Schekkerman et al. 2003, 2004), yielded much information on the factors and constraints that shape this “terminal reward” function. Two seem to be of special importance: (1) survival of adult birds directly after arrival on the breeding grounds, when food resources are sometimes unavailable due to retarded onset of spring or cold spells, and (2) the timing of hatching of the chicks relative to the seasonal peak in availability of arthropod prey (Meltofte et al. MS, Tulp & Schekkerman MS). Peak dates of arthropod emergence turned out to be highly variable between years, depending on the temperature regime. Indeed, the effect of weather on arthropod activity is so strong that temperature records could be used to ‘postdict’ the seasonal patterns of insect availability from past temperature records some 30 years hence. These analyses indicated that birds appeared to time the hatch of their eggs to the ‘average’ food peak rather than changing their laying dates to account for yearly variation in food abundance. However, these analyses also showed that the timing of the food peak seems to have become earlier over the past decades, possibly causing a shift in the optimal laying date that may ultimately result in a conflict between factors (1) and (2) above (i.e., adult survival will have to be compromised to lay eggs to hatch with the new food peak). There are indications that in Siberia, weather-driven variation in arthropod availability limits chick growth of shorebird chicks much more often than in some other parts of the Arctic, e.g. Greenland and the NE Canadian archipelago which seem to have a more dependable summer climate (Meltofte et al MS). There is thus a clear interest in elucidating the interplay between weather variation, arthropod availability and chick growth in different parts of the circumpolar Arctic, to learn more about geographic variation in the terminal reward function. There are only few such places (N-Alaska, NE Greenland, NE and NC-Canada, W-Taimyr, SE-Taimyr, Central-Taymir) where data is already available. We envisage a joint research program consisting of a multiple number of site-specific studies that include daily arthropod sampling to link availability to weather, and measuring breeding phenology and chick growth. These sampling programs are then to be followed up by retrospective analyses of weather data to reveal long-term average patterns and changes. In addition, we will take blood samples from all captured birds and use DNA sequence information to infer historic population changes in relation to major climatic events further back in time. The final step in the enterprise is to incorporate this information in dynamic migration models of waders breeding in different areas and calculate the effect of climate change under different scenarios. Ens, B.J., Piersma T. & Tinbergen J.M. 1994. Towards predictive models of bird migration schedules: theoretical and empirical bottlenecks. NIOZ-rapport 1994-5. NIOZ, Den Burg. Clark, C.W. & Butler. R.W. 1999. Fitness components of avian migration: a dynamic model of Western Sandpiper migration. Evol. Ecol. Research 1: 443-457. Klaassen, M. 2001. The DYNAMIG simulation toolbox. In M. Klaassen & B.J. Ens (eds). Linking migration models to the real world. Alterra-report 304, Alterra, Wageningen / Netherlands Institute of Ecology, Nieuwersluis: 35-39. Meltofte, H., T. Piersma, H. Boyd, B. McCaffery, B. Ganter, R.E. Gill, V. Golovnyuk, K. Graham, R.I.G. Morrison, E. Nol, H-U. Rosner, D. Schamel, H. Schekkerman, M.Y. Soloviev, P.S. Tomkovich, D. Tracy, I. Tulp & L. Wennerberg. Arctic shorebirds and climate: a circumpolar review of breeding conditions. MS for Arctic. Schekkerman, H., I. Tulp & B.J. Ens. 2003. Conservation of long-distance migratory wader populations: reproductive consequences of events occurring in distant staging sites. Wader Study Group Bulletin 100: 151-156. Schekkerman, H. I. Tulp, J.J. de Leeuw & K. Calf. 2004. Studies on breeding shorebirds at Medusa Bay, Taimyr, in summer 2002. Alterra-report 922. Alterra, Wageningen. Tulp, I. & H. Schekkerman (ms). Seasonal, weather-related and geographical variation in the abundance of tundra arthropods as a food source for shorebird chicks on the Taimyr peninsula, Siberia. Weber, T.P., Houston A.I. & Ens B.J. 1994. Optimal departure fat loads and site use in avian migration: an analytical model. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 258: 29-34. Weber, T.P., Ens B.J., & Houston, A.I. 1998. Optimal avian migration: a dynamic model of fuel stores and site use. Evolutionary Ecology 12: 377-401. Weber, T.P., Houston, A.I. & Ens, B.J. 1999. Consequences of habitat loss at migratory stopover sites: a theoretical investigation. J. Avian Biology 30: 416-426.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Theme 1: The Committee for Holarctic Shorebird Monitoring (CHASM) has identified the need to expand existing monitoring programs of arctic breeding waders to include environmental factors important for interpreting the trajectories of population trends, including physical and biological parameters, such as climate, habitat, predator and alternative prey variables. This study goes a long way to begin coordinating not only research teams but the type and quantity of data collected. Theme 2: The project specifically aims to investigate the effect of climate change on the ecological synchrony and reproductive success of arctic breeding waders. Theme 3: The dynamic migration models deal with the migrations of the waders spanning the entire globe. They can be used, once properly parameterized, to study the impact of climate change on each of the links in the migratory chain. Theme 5: Because most avian population models indicate adult survival and reproductive success limit population growth, collecting data on these factors are essential first steps to understanding recent documented declines in shorebirds. Studies in the Arctic offer an unusual vantage point with which to explore factors limiting population growth. The prime target of this study is research in the natural sciences. However, the project will also contribute information on insect abundance to a decade-long database on the circumpolar breeding conditions of arctic birds http://www.arcticbirds.ru/. At present, the interactive website covers bird breeding success, rodent abundance (predation on wader nests is high in years of low lemming abundance) and climate. This site (or derivatives of the site) can also contribute to education and communication about the migrations of the arctic breeding waders.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The international collaboration involves different research groups spread throughout circumpolar Arctic, studying shorebird breeding chronology and chick growth, climate, and insect abundance. Sites will include several that have an existing long-term record of climate (and sometimes also arthropod abundance) measurements and bird phenology data. The program will link with a broader monitoring study (Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring) in Canada and a research study at Alert, northeastern Ellesmere Island, both of which have been proposed as IPY projects within Canada. In addition a similar initiative has been proposed by the Dutch government in the Netherlands. We will continue discussing the study with other research groups operating in the Arctic using avenues through CHASM and the International Wader Study Group to advertise and advance the project. In addition to the Arctic field work, several groups of international scientists will be involved in statistical analysis of the weather data, in genetic analysis, and in further development of the dynamic migration models.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Locations for field work include: 1. Barrow Environmental Observatory, Northcentral, Alaska 2. Zackenberg Research Station in Northeast Greenland 3. field station at Medusa Bay on NW Taimyre, Russia 4. field station on SE Taimyre, Russia 5. study site in Central Taimyre, Russia 6. study site at Alert on Ellesmere Island, Canada 7. study site at Southampton Island, Canada

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 06/2007 - 09/2007      06/2008 - 09/2008      06/2009 - 09/2009
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Financial and logistical needs will depend on the field site. In many cases, we will be supplementing existing work and thus funding needs will be minimized. Regardless, many of the sites are remote and helicopters and snow terrain vehicles many be needed for transport. In many cases these facilities can be usefully shared with other projects.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
It is hoped that one or more new field stations may be established during the study and that these sites will be maintained for future studies.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
National agency
Military support
Commercial operator
Own support
Other sources of support

Each group will secure its own logistics to reach and operate their field station or study site. In some cases this will involve commercial operators of helicopters and in other cases military support. Funds will be supplied by national agencies in most cases.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
The project has been endorsed by the Dutch IPY committee, and through overlap in study objectives, been tentatively approved by the Canadian IPY committee.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New

It is primarily a new project, but it also builds on existing and planned activities. For instance, at the Zackenberg Research Station on NE Greenland, insects and climate have been monitored for the last ten years and it is intended to continue this monitoring in the future. At other sites, especially in North America, this represents an augmented effort over existing study protocols.

How will the project be organised and managed?
Each group is responsible for organising the field work at their field station. Before the field work starts, one or more meetings will be organised to discuss field methods and decide on a basic protocol and data exchange. Field protocols are likely to follow recently prepared Arctic shorebird productivity and environmental protocols produced by CHASM (unpubl. Ms). At these meetings it will also be decided which group or groups will do the statistical analyses and which group or groups will do the modelling. The genetic analysis will be made at the University of Oslo. Coordination will be shared between the groups.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
At present information on the breeding conditions of arctic birds is made available on the following web site http://www.arcticbirds.ru/. This web site is primarily directed towards fellow scientists. We plan to augment this database by including monitoring data on insect abundance. Next, we plan on adding pages that explain to a wider public the importance of the Arctic for the breeding waders and explain how these waders depend on coastal sites throughout the world for their survival during the nonbreeding season. The site might also explain how the birds make their migrations and how these migrations might be affected by climate change. During the expeditions there might be regular contact with the media at home. Experience has taught us that the media are generally interested in covering these kinds of expeditions on a live basis.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Data will be made available on a web site, if possible the breeding conditions web site already in existence http://www.arcticbirds.ru/. Data can be extracted from this web site on the following conditions. Data are provided with the intent that they are readily available for personal and public non-commercial use and may be reproduced, in part or in whole and by any means, without charge or further permission from the International Wader Study Group. However, proper reference to contributors of original data to the database must be provided in all cases, and due diligence should be exercised in ensuring the accuracy of the materials reproduced. Data are provided on an end-user basis - that is, data are provided to users, but are not to be passed on to third parties or otherwise redistributed.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Each group intends to obtain funds primarily from their own national granting agencies. We may also approach international funding agencies and private sources.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
The proposal is truly international and so many groups have already indicated their interest in the project that this space is used to give all the extra names, as the space under 4.2 does not suffice: Name 7 Dr. Ingrid Tulp Organisation Animal Sciences

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Bruno J Ens
Alterra-Texel
P.O. Box 167
NL-1790 AD Den Burg
The Netherlands

Tel: +31 222 369750
Mobile: no
Fax: no
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation