Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

The response of the Arctic Ocean to increasing river discharges  (The response of the Arctic Ocean to increasing river discharges)

Outline
The Arctic Ocean (AO) is an important component of the climate system through its link to the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The AO also plays an important role in the global hydrological cycle. Freshwater added to the AO via rivers is approximately twice that added by the excess of precipitation over evaporation at the ocean surface. Observations (Peterson et al 2002) show that river discharges to the AO have increased under global warming during the 20th century, and further increases are predicted with future climate change. This will not only affect the global hydrological cycle, but may also alter the freshwater balance in the AO and affect the THC. This project intends to investigate the response of the Arctic Ocean to increasing river discharges. We will use a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model(GCM) to investigate the sensitivity of the AO to increased river flow. The model will be the most appropriate Hadley Centre model at the time of the project, currently HadCM3. We will prescribe the flows of the major Arctic rivers, so that we can compare simulations in which all forcings are identical, apart from changed river flows. A control run will be compared with a series of runs that will examine the impact of different river flow scenarios. We anticipate performing several simulations of 25 years each – long enough to identify major changes and trends, whilst being short enough to allow several runs within a project of 12-18 months. Our analysis will concentrate on the freshwater balance of the AO and surrounding seas. We will also look for changes in the distribution of currents, salinity, sea surface temperature and sea ice, and for changes in the atmosphere at high latitudes. A key question is to what extent changes in the freshwater budget are simply explained by the change in freshwater inflow from rivers, as opposed to “secondary” effects such as altered sea ice export and feedbacks in the system. The system described here, with prescribed river flows, is designed to isolate the effect of changed river flows in a way that would be very difficult to do with a fully interactive GCM in which the river flows are affected by climate. This is an important step towards understanding the interaction of rivers and the AO in a changed climate.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The quantification of the impacts on the Arctic Ocean of changed river flows is an important stage in predicting the impact of climate change on the Arctic Ocean, since river flows are expected to increase significantly. Any changes have implications both for the state of the ocean itself and for the climate of the surrounding land masses (with consequent impacts on the people and animals that live there). There is global significance in this work since the Arctic Ocean is closely linked to the thermohaline circulation. Changed river flow in the Arctic thus has potential impacts on a global scale.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
No international collaboration has been identified at this stage. We will look for potential collaborators before writing a full proposal.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
None.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
None.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
None.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
No - no contact has yet been made with NERC.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New

New project, but with links to an existing PhD project and to existing work e.g. on the thermohaline circulation, sea ice and Arctic hydrology.

How will the project be organised and managed?
It is envisaged that this will be a small project, currently involving only 2 centres. The proximity of these means that regular project meetings are easily arranged. The project will be managed from CEH Wallingford.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The primary communication will be via one or more papers in the scientific literature, and attendance at scientific conferences.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Only model output is involved. This will be archived locally and made available to any interested parties.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
National funding agency – NERC’s Arctic-IPY initiative.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Douglas Clark
CEH Wallingford
Crowmarsh Gifford
Oxfordshire
OX10 8BB
UK

Tel: +44 (0)1491 692329
Mobile: no
Fax: +44 (0)1491 692424
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation