Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

The stability of floating glaciers of northeast Greenland in an era of increased wave height and diminishing sea ice conditions.  (STABILITY)

Outline
It is clear that significant changes in the Arctic environment have occurred over the past few decades. Moreover, accelerated change is predicted, including a warming of 4-7°C over the Greenland ice sheet by 2100 and a near-disappearance of summer sea ice . A major decline in sea ice extent has already occurred in NE Greenland Sea. The already increasing wave heights in north Atlantic coupled with a substantial loss of sea ice in the Greenland Sea will inevitably have interrelated repercussions to other areas of the Arctic environment. For the first time, possibly in hundreds of years, the coastal areas of north-east Greenland, including fast ice regions and floating glaciers, are exposed to the open sea or with a much reduced ice cover. Recently considerable attention has been focused on the climatic implications of the breakout of huge Antarctic icebergs. The north Atlantic region however, is of critical global importance as there is an increasing consensus amongst modellers that a shutdown in deep water formation will be associated with a reduced northward transport of heat in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The triggering mechanisms for this shutdown are unknown, but an increased fresh-water flux through iceberg discharge (Heinrich events) is a possibility. Observational records suggest there has been a sudden increase in the discharge of icebergs from the floating glaciers of northeast Greenland. In summer 2003 and 2004 an unusually large number of icebergs, both floating and grounded were seen in the region of the Belgica Bank. This breakout, whilst not on the scale of the Antarctic, is a significant shift in the already diminishing mass balance of the glaciers in north-east Greenland. Although the exact mechanisms responsible for this highly unusual breakout are unknown, significant changes in the mass balance of the glaciers coupled with a decrease in sea ice extent, influx of Atlantic water and increase in open-ocean wave energy suggest further investigation is urgently needed. This project will determine the underlying mechanisms behind breakout events by a combination of remote sensing, in situ observation, and modelling. Field parties will be flown in via Station Nord to install ice tethered moorings (to determine the evolution of the regional water masses). At this stage tilt meters will be installed on the fast ice and floating glaciers (to determine their flexure with respect to wind, wave and tidal forcing). Ice strengthened ships will perform oceanographic work in summer.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Climate related issues generally have a larger dimension and thus can not be tackled by one nation. For this project a scientific team was chosen in such a way that the scientific objectives within this proposal, as well as any problems encountered during the programme, can be addressed properly and successfully. In this way the proposal will deliver a world-class programme which aligns itself completely with the IPY themes and targets 1,2,3,4,6 (see section 1.4).

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The scientific value of this programme is enhanced by international co-operation with groups with substantial expertise and experience in the polar environment of NE east Greenland, who have models and methods that complement the proposal. This proposal brings together groups from the UK, Denmark, Germany and Norway. q2_1_Location : The geographical location of the proposed work with be the fast ice and floating glaciers in the Belgica Bank region of NE Greenland.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The geographical location of the proposed work with be the fast ice and floating glaciers in the Belgica Bank region of NE Greenland.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 2007 - 2009            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
As with all field work in the polar regions logistics support is needed. This will be in the form of airborne (helicopter and twin otter) and ship-borne (ice strengthened). Remote sensing, moored and ice tethered platforms will also be utilised. Logistics are sharable.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Continued long term monitoring of the glaciers and sea ice off NE Greenland is an aspect of this programme. Instruments developed and deployed during this proposal will have a mutli-year lifetime beyond the IPY. Interested parties will be invited.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
Own national polar operator
Own support
Other sources of support

The UK component of this proposal has already been submitted for national funding.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
General project endorsement by the Danish National Committee for IPY.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Exp

A number of national and international programmes have concentrated on the glaciers, sea ice and oceanography of NE Greenland. These programmes have given us a snapshot of complex processes that were occurring at the time of the survey. However the long term variability have not been established. Long-term monitoring as proposed by the programme will enable the processes that underlie the stability of these floating ice shelves to be determined.

How will the project be organised and managed?
A project steering committee will be formed, with one representative from each of the partner organisations. The chairman of the steering committee will be the project co-ordinator. The steering committee will decide on matters relating to project management, including technical, financial, budgetary control and task scheduling matters. The committee will meet every six months, but will keep in contact frequently by e-mail and telephone. Members of the IPY committee will be encouraged to attend meetings.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
A core component of this programme we will be making the full use of the knowledge and experience of our international collaborators in the training of younger scientists. An essential part of the dissemination process will be the reporting of results at major journals, conferences as well as publication of articles in popular press, and media interviews.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
A continuously updated web site for this project will include background, results, as well as relevant satellite imagery and short digital films of the field programmes. Data will be stored at the usual World Data Centers.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
The project will be funded through the usual channels via each partners national funding agency. The UK component of this proposal has already been submitted for national funding.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
This project complements the SAMS NORTHERN SEAS - ARCTIC IPY programme.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Jeremy Wilkinson
Scottish Association for Marine Science
Dunstaffnage Marine Laboratory
Oban
PA37 1QA
UK

Tel: 44 (0)1631 559 279
Mobile: no
Fax: 44 (0)1631 559 001
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation