Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

History of the Arctic Climate in the 19th Century and the Beginning of the 20th Century Based on Early Instrumental Data  (The Arctic Climate in the Early Instrumental Period (ACEIP))

Outline
The key role of Polar regions in shaping the global climate is now very well known. This awareness has prompted many scientists to undertake detailed climatic studies in this area and, as a result, variations of the Arctic climate in the 20th century are quite well understood (though with the exception of climatic variations in the central Greenland and central Arctic regions). One of the main aims of contemporary climatology is to describe the range of natural climate changes in the last few centuries and to identify reasons for these changes. For the Arctic, it is possible to estimate the natural variation of climate using existing meteorological data gathered by different land and marine expeditions organized in this area (including data gathered in posts kept by the Hudson Bay Company) during the 19th century and in the first two decades of the 20th century. These instrumental data are an important additional source to long-term proxy data series that may have poor resolution and uncertain dating. Reliable climate data reflecting long-term climate variability for the Arctic also facilitate control runs of climate models. Main Aims 1.Collection of all available meteorological data for the Arctic from published and unpublished sources for the study period (including the creation of an electronic database). Climate-related data (water temperature, sea-ice extent and thickness etc.) will also be collected. The search for the data will be carried out mainly in libraries and archives located in different institutions in Canada, the USA, Great Britain, Norway, Sweden, Russia etc. 2.Verification of data quality using modern statistical methods 3. Re-establishing of early instrumental stations during the IPY-period (2007-2008) by using automatic weather stations. Parallel measurements will enable early data to be adjusted to currently running series obtaining longer climatic series ready for analyses 4.Comprehensive and detailed description of the Arctic climate and its changes in the 19th and at the beginning of the 20th centuries 5. Comparison of Arctic climate reconstructions, based on proxy data as well as existing gridded data sets, with the early instrumental data available from the ACEIP 6. Comparison of the historical and the modern Arctic climate: similarities and differences.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The improvement and extension of our knowledge concerning the climate of the Arctic from the beginning of the 19th century will allow a more reliable estimation of its natural variability. Preliminary results published by the authors of this project reveal a discrepancy between the Arctic climate reconstructions based on proxy data compared to those based on instrumental data. More data are needed to explain this discrepancy. More detailed climate data gathered for the 19th century also permit a more reliable estimation of the changes of different aspects of the climate (not only mean values) between historical and present times. These, in turn, should help to explain observed environmental changes. q1_7_collab : In the present project the following researches agreed to work: Dr V. Lagun (Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Petersburg, Russia), Dr. Jacek Majorowicz (Northern Geothermal, Edmonton, Canada) Dr Ø. Nordli (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway), Dr J. Overland (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory/NOAA Seattle, the USA), Prof. R. Przybylak (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Toruń, Poland)

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
In the present project the following researches agreed to work: Dr V. Lagun (Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Petersburg, Russia), Dr. Jacek Majorowicz (Northern Geothermal, Edmonton, Canada)Dr Ø. Nordli (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The work will be done in the libraries and archives located in the countries which were engaged in the exploration of the Arctic during 19th and the beginning of 20th century (e.g. Canada, the USA, Great Britain, Norway, Russia, Sweden, Austria etc.). Some limited fieldwork will have to be carried out in connection with the re-establishing of some meteorological stations (Svalbard) and borehole temperature measurements (Canadian Arctic).

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: March 2007 – February 2009            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Automatic weather stations are planned for the Svalbard area. Support by ship is needed for transportation to the observation sites. This transport may also support other IPY-activities. Transport may also possibly be needed in the event of finding some abounded wells in the Canadian Arctic and other places.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
No

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
National agency

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
The project is (or will be) endorsed by national funding agencies. For example, in Poland the project has been endorsed by the IPY National Committee and has obtained financial support from the Ministry of Science Research and Information Technology.For the Norwegian, Canadian and American parts of the project there will be applications for endorsement.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Expansion

As an international project, it is an autonomous proposal. On the other hand, in particular countrieAs an international project, it is an autonomous proposal. On the other hand, in particular countries (e.g. in Poland) the project is a component of a wider project, coordinated by the IPY National Committee, which was run as a preparatory project for the IPY 2007-2008.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be self-managed. The coordinator - Prof. R. Przybylak - responsible for gathering data for the whole Arctic and their scientific elaboration Principal investigators: Dr. V. Lagun - Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Russia - responsible for gathering data mainly from the Russian Arctic and their scientific elaboration Dr. Ø. Nordli - Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway - responsible for gathering data mainly from the Norwegian Arctic and Greenland and their scientific elaboration Dr. J. Overland - Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory/NOAA Seattle, USA - responsible for gathering data mainly from the American Arctic and their scientific elaboration.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
1. Lessons (in national languages) describing the Arctic climate history and its role in the global climate will be prepared. 2. Results will be presented both in the forums of scientific organisations, and in public and social bodies. 3. Press releases for newspapers and other print media will be prepared and radio/ television interviews will be given.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
1. The source data (including metadata) will first be gathered by the principal investigators, and their quality will be assessed. 2. The data will then be transferred to the coordinator where a data bank for the whole Arctic will be created. 3. The data will then be freely available on conditions established just after finishing the project.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Financial support is expected from:1. the home institutions of the all participants in the project,2. the national funding agencies of the all participants of the project,3. international funding agencies (e.g. European Union etc.)

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
The coordinator and each principal investigator of the ACEIP project are responsible for the organisation of teams of researchers which will be working in the project.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Pro Rajmund Przybylak
Nicolaus Copernicus University
Department of Climatology
Danielewskiego 6, Torun
87-100
Poland

Tel: (+4856)6113179
Mobile: 0692256416
Fax: (+4856)6113144
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation