Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

The dynamic response of Arctic glaciers to global warming  (GLACIODYN)

Outline
Global warming will have a large impact on glaciers in the Arctic region. Changes in the extent of glaciers will effect sea level, and may lead to substantial changes in sediment and fresh water supplies to embayments and fjords. In ACIA, a simple approach was taken to estimate the runoff of all glaciers in the Arctic for a set of climate-change scenarios. In this static approach changes in the surface mass balance were calculated without dealing with the fact that glacier geometries will change. It was also assumed that the rate of iceberg production at calving fronts would not change. Those simplifications had to be made because knowledge about the dynamic response of Arctic glaciers is inadequate. To arrive at more accurate predictions, we propose an internationally-coordinated effort to study the dynamics of Arctic glaciers and develop new tools to deal with this dynamic response. The key elements of this effort are (i) to make better use of observational techniques to assess the detailed dynamics of a key set of glaciers, and (ii) to develop models that can be used to aggregrate data and that are sufficiently robust to have predictive power. A set of about 10 glaciers will be identified as key targets for intensive observations (in situ and from space) for the period 2007-2010. This set should cover a wide range of climatic/geographical settings and some will be chosen to take maximum advantage of prior long-term studies. Special attention will be given to tidewater glaciers. We want to look carefully at the interaction between surface processes and dynamics (e.g. the influence of meltwater supply on ice velocities and consequently calving rates). Model development will be conducted in parallel with the observational programmes. The modelling work will deal with processes acting on the smaller scale (parameterization of the calving process) and on the larger scale (global dynamics of tidewater glaciers, response to climate change, interaction with sediment dynamics). An important aspect of the project will be to develop a methodology for upscaling the results for selected glaciers to all glaciers in the Arctic. This is always a difficult step that tends to be postponed. However, since we have the ambition to make a sound contribution to future assessments on global change in the Arctic, including the contribution of arctic glaciers to sea-level change, we consider a methodology for upscaling as an essential component of our project.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
• Extensive datasets for target glaciers around the Arctic. • A better understanding of the factors that control the dynamic response of Arctic glaciers to climate change. • Improved techniques to retrieve glacier parameters from satellite data. • Models that can be used to predict glacier behaviour for imposed climate change scenarios. • Improved estimates of the contribution of Arctic glaciers to future sea-level rise

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Extensive international collaboration is assured because the project wil be run by the IASC Working Group on Arctic Glaciology. Many of the members of the Working Group will participate.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Svalbard, Franz-Josef Land, Greenland, Iceland, Alaska, Canadian Arctic, Northern Scandinavia

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 2007-2010            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Snow vehicles, Helicopters, Satellites (for acquiring data sets), Airborne Lidar and SAR for high-resolution topogaphic mapping

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
We plan to compile existing topographic maps of Arctic glaciers, including the new ones we plan to acquire, and make these available digitally in a long-term archive for future comparisons. A limited number of automatic weather stations at remote sites will be kept in place.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own national polar operator
Another national polar operator
Commercial operator
Own support

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
At this stage endorsed by the National IPY Committees of Finland, The Netherlands and Poland

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New

The project is new. Neverthless, it is a natural extension of MAGICS (Mass balance of Arctic Glaciers and Ice sheets in relation to Climate and Sea level changes).

How will the project be organised and managed?
The programme will be carried out under the auspices of the IASC Working Group on Arctic Glaciology (IASC-WAG). The annual IASC-WAG meeting and workshop will be the main occasion for discussion of results, planning of combined field work, analysis and synthesis of the results, and shaping of the output. A small Steering Committee (4 or 5 members) will be established to run and coordinate the daily matters (including the maintenance of a high-quality website).

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
We want to producWe want to produce an e-learning course (interactive website) with clickable models and other tools. This will have several modules at different levels. It will be possible for students to impose climate-change scenarios to model glaciers of different type and see how these glaciers react in time. State-of-the-art 3D visualisation techniques will be used to present information and results of research in an appealing way.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
After quality control and proper documentation data will be submitted to the relevant international databanks (e.g. World data Centers for Glaciology). Easy access for project members and their collaborators will be arranged by setting up a simple data facility linked to the website of the IASC Working Group on Arctic Glaciology.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Mainly from national funding organisations, possibly a contribution from the EU.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
This expression of intent is submitted by the IASC Working Group on Arctic Glaciology (IASC-WAG), with full support of all national representatives. Website: http://www.phys.uu.nl/%7Ewwwimau/research/ice_climate/iasc_wag/

PROPOSER DETAILS

Prof Johannes Oerlemans
IMAU, Utrecht University
Princetonplein 5
Utrecht
3584 CC
Netherlands

Tel: +31302533275
Mobile: no
Fax: +31302543163
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation