Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Search for Key-Events in Polar regions TrIggering abrupt Climate changes  (SKEPTIC)

Outline
SKEPTIC is an international activity based mainly on modelling efforts supported by existing observational data, aiming at exploring the interconnections between North-South pole dynamics in triggering abrupt climate changes through small scale key-events, such as shallow shelf down slope flows (SSDF) of dense water or open ocean deep convection (OODC). The admitted intention of the EOI is to exploit data acquired and models developed within other projects already carried out (Polar DOVE , CANOPO) or that will be forwarded during the IPY, such as SASSI, CASO, VEnICE, BIAC and CARE.While it is generally accepted that ice-age periods in the poles have not always been synchronous, the reasons of this different behaviour are still unknown. In order to address these issues, a careful blending of global, coarse resolution, eddy-permitting models and regional-local, high-resolution, eddy resolving ones is needed. Indeed there arise the need of dealing both with long integration periods at a global scale, and very high spatial resolution simulations with complex dynamics as well.This objective will be pursued through the development of a hierarchy of state-of-the-art numerical models (e.g. ROMS, OPA, PISCES) including the whole Atlantic ocean domain and the whole Southern Ocean one, in a way that they can be run separately or nested. Within these coarse resolution numerical domains, higher resolution models focused on dense water formation sites will be implemented, this activity will be proposed for selected Arctic and Antarctic regions such as the Svalbard islands (Barents Sea) and the Balleny islands (Ross Sea). SKEPTIC will use also a lagrangian diagnostics applied to OPA to study the fate of the water masses of the Mixed Layer in the area of the SO where intermediate water forms. The aim is to quantify the role of the Mode Waters in the transportation of nutrients and to identify where the SO behave as a sink of nutrients. In particular this approach will be used i) to estimate where and when the water formed in the SO resurface; ii) to study the time characteristics of the propagation of an anomaly flowing on the ACC. Data collected in the three checkpoints will be interpreted and analysed using this modelling approach.The results of these cross-correlated model studies should help investigating how the relationships between variability in deep-water formation sites, in produced volumes, in the ratio between OODC/SSDF events can trigger gradual or abrupt changes in the THC pathway.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Theme 3: - Polar-global linkages and interaction SKEPTIC will improve the knowledge on the global circulation and the influence of selected small distributed areas on the global climate and on the polar ecosystems (tele-connections). Theme 4: - Investigating new frontiers SKEPTIC will try to address if THC is the Achilles Heel of the Earth climate system and how small key-events are important in abrupt climate changes episodes.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The SKEPTIC activity will be carried on by research groups of different countries (Italy, Norway, U.S.A., France). SKEPTIC will interpret also collected data using global OGC and biogeochemical models used in the project CANOPO

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
SKEPTIC activity is intentionally optimizing already existing data, then foresees a limited field work activity. Antarctic: new data provided by ongoing Projects (CASO, SASSI, VEnICE, etc.) Arctic: besides the proposed field activity of the Norwegian-driven CARE and BIAC, the Italian National station (Svalbard) will be employed for process oriented studies.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 06/07      06/08      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
SKEPTIC activity is intentionally optimizing already existing facilities, then foresees only shared resources with ongoing Projects (CASO, SASSI, VEnICE, CARE, BIAC, CANOPO, etc.). The Italian National station (Svalbard) will be employed for process oriented studies.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
SKEPTIC will leave a legacy of a design for a modelling system on the Arctic/Antarctic margin and a framework for comparative studies, in order to explore correlations in abrupt climatic changes.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
Own national polar operator
Another national polar operator
National agency

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
SKEPTIC proposal is an improvement of iAnZone and BONUS strategies which are endorsed internationally by CLIVAR/CliC/SCAR Southern Ocean Implementation Panel

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New

SKEPTIC is a project improving the iAnZone and BONUS strategies, addressing scientific questions that are main topics for international programs as CLIVAR, CliC, PAGES, IGBP.

How will the project be organised and managed?
SKEPTIC project will interact with the CLIVAR/CliC/SCAR SO Panel and with the other partner projects and will improve iAnZone and BONUS strategies, it will work in cooperation with this group of experts and the existing Italian POLARNET and ENEA initiative.SKEPTIC project will plan regular meetings and workshops during the two years long activity, also associated with the ongoing Ross Sea International Conferences sponsored by the Italian project.Annual international meetings to review the progress of the project will be needed.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
SKEPTIC will add value to the education improving the outreach activities to the national Antarctic Museums. Workshops and summer schools will be organised as well as young scientists exchange program and new students within the Italian PhD for Polar Science (Italian and Norwegian Universities).

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Different data set already acquired and stored will be pooled together with other Project data in a common data bank managed by the partner projects.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Each partner project of SKEPTIC will seek funding at national and international level.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
SKEPTIC project will use data from past observations in the Ross Sea acquired at least from Italian-Norwegian programs (e.g. BIOSESO, CLIMA, Polar DOVE and CANOPO of PNRA).

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Andrea Bergamasco
CNR ISMAR
S.Polo Venice
1364
Italy

Tel: +39 041 5216811
Mobile: +39 339 466 7388
Fax: +39 041 2602340
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation