Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Cyclogenetic Forcings in the Polar Atmosphere and Interactions with Mid-Latitudes  (Factors Governing Polar Cyclogenesis)

Outline
Cyclogenesis in the polar atmosphere produces small-scale (horizontal scales of hundreds of kilometres), short-lived (lifetimes of a day or two) features. These "mesocyclones" may be responsible for damaging surface winds and heavy precipitation and constitute high-impact weather events, particularly for coastal communities. Their dynamics are rich and wide-ranging, the mechanisms governing their formation and evolution continuing to attract debate. Processes typical of both mid-latitude (baroclinic instability) and tropical (convective instabilities) cyclones have been implicated in their development. The complex dynamics of polar mesocyclones, combined with the relative sparsity of observations over the high-latitude oceans, means that cyclonic activity in polar regions is not currently well understood. Contributions from possible forcing mechanisms require quantification. In this project, the "potential vorticity inversion" method will be applied to the northern polar region. The action of baroclinic, convective and boundary-layer dynamics can be recognized from characteristic potential vorticity structures. Inversions then attribute wind, temperature and geopotential features to each contributing physical mechanism. The method has proved highly successful in studies of mid-latitude and tropical cyclones, and its suitability for elucidating and comparing various forcings has been amply demonstrated. Inversions will be performed for a range of case studies identified from ECMWF operational analyses. While instructive in their own right, these will be conducted with a view to automating the calculations and ascertaining the pertinent diagnostics. Objective climatologies would then be constructed. The role of topography for the interplay of polar and mid-latitude cyclones (see below) demands that careful attention first be given to the coordinate system. Synoptic analyses on pressure levels are notoriously problematic over high orography. Possible advantages of using sigma surfaces and an "equivalent isobaric geopotential height" (as advocated by Chen and co-workers) will therefore be addressed. Results from the project will be diagnostics describing the relative importance of cyclogenetic forcings, and their relationships to mid-latitude cyclone activity and geographical factors. Cyclogenetic forcings in the polar regions are believed to possess significant dependencies on mid-latitude cyclonic activity. Surface heat fluxes are important for convective initation and are strongest during cold-air outbreaks, which are themselves induced by the tracks of mid-latitude cyclones. In the North Atlantic, the tracks are strongly influenced by the presence of Greenland and other significant topography. Baroclinic dynamics are also sensitive to geographic factors including coastlines and the ice edge. The effects will be determined of mid-latitude weather systems on the relative contributions of forcing mechanisms to polar cyclogenesis.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Under Theme 3, the IPY framework document states that "forcing of the polar environment by low-latitude patterns of variability ... requires investigation." The project will do so by advancing knowledge of: 1. the development of polar mesocyclones; 2. the influences of mid-latitude cyclones on the frequency and character of polar cyclogenesis; 3. the role of Greenland and other topographic features in mediating these influences. It is also well suited to meeting the aims of the WMO, whose priority activity 4 refers to "assessment of global-to-regional influences on the initiation, evolution and predictability of high-impact weather events."

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
We welcome the statement in the IPY framework document that "submitted expressions of intent ... will be posted on the IPY 2007-2008 website ... to offer opportunities for all prospective participants to link to other related projects."

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The project is a modelling study and as such the remainder of this Section on Field Activities has been intentionally left blank.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New

The techniques to be employed in the project are familiar from previous and ongoing research conducted by the proposer and various colleagues. While the project is a new one, it will build upon this experience.

How will the project be organised and managed?
Funding will be sought to enagage a postdoctoral researcher to work exclusively on the project. The researcher will be supervised by the principal investigator (PI) and work in collaboration with the PI and other colleagues. Supervision will seek wherever possible to facilitate career development of the researcher, thereby encouraging a new polar researcher to reach their potential.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Communication to the academic community will be via peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations. A website will be established to inform interested parties of progress. This will include material targetted at different levels of expertise, ranging from the general public through to researchers in the field.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
It is envisaged that project data will be managed by making use of the experience and expertise of the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC). This is a facility dedicated to data archiving and dissemination and is supported by NERC, the same body from which project funding will be sought.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Funding will be sought through an application to a dedicated Arctic Science initiative from NERC (Natural Environment Research Council), a UK research council supporting research into Earth System Science. They have announced a 5.3 million pound programme "Arctic-IPY" for which an Announcement of Opportunity is expected in February 2005.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Robert Plant
Department of Meteorology
Earley Gate, University of Reading
Reading
RG6 6BB
UK

Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5587
Mobile: no
Fax: +44 (0)118 378 8905
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation