Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Arctic Climate Modeling and Teleconnection Studies  (Climate and Teleconnections)

Outline
The general goal of this project is to improve predictions of the arctic environment on timescales ranging from seasonal to climatic. Thus, our research will focus on analyzing and modeling physical processes and teleconnections in the Arctic. The four main activities are: (1) Evaluating physical parameterizations in global weather forecasting and climate models. This will be achieved by running single-column versions of the global models at the Arctic Atmospheric Observatory locations, and comparing the results with measurements. Presently, we are planning to evaluate single-column versions of the GFDL and NCAR climate models and the NCEP GFS weather forecast model. A significant component of this effort is the creation of an integrated dataset for forcing and validating the single column model. (2) Analyzing the sensitivity of the arctic climate system in the GFDL and NCAR coupled climate models. Special attention will be paid to internal feedbacks, such as the surface albedo and ice dynamics feedbacks, and also to interactions with between the Arctic and the global circulation. (3) Upgrading and testing of the sea ice model in the NCEP Climate Forecasting System. Specific areas of improvement include snow cover and thermodynamics, rheology, and coupling of the sea ice with the atmosphere and ocean. (4) Analyzing teleconnections patterns involving the Arctic. Both observational and model derived datasets will be used in this analysis.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
These studies will improve models used for seasonal and climate-change predictions, and will increase the general understanding of atmospheric phenomena that are unique to the Arctic.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
We plan to invite others to become involved in activities (1) and (2). Potential institutions include modeling centers from Germany, Canada, France and Great Britain.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
This project has no field component, although some data will come from field activities conducted in other projects (e.g., satellite data and measurements from the Arctic Atmospheric Observatories).

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The integrated forcing/validation dataset created in the single-column modeling study [activity (1)] will be made available to the public via an internet website.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
National agency

This project has no field program.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
The project has not yet been submitted for approval or endorsement.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Exp

The project includes both new and already planned activities. Data will be acquired from ongoing projects, such as satellite measurements from NESDIS and observations from the Arctic Atmospheric Observatories.

How will the project be organised and managed?
A program committee will be formed.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The project will use existing educational and outreach programs in US agencies (primarily in NOAA).

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
The project will abide by the Framework developed by IPY Program. Integrated datasets from the Arctic Atmospheric Observatories studied in activity (1) will be available via the internet.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Research grants from US agencies.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Tony Beesley
201 Forrestal Road
Princeton
New Jersey
08542
USA

Tel: 609-452-6500 ext. 69
Mobile: no
Fax: 609-987-5063
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation