Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Mass Balance and Ice Dynamics of Antarctic Peninsula Glaciers for IPY2007-2008.  (APY)

Outline
Antarctic Peninsula temperatures have risen six times faster than the global average in recent decades, triggering glaciological and ecological events unique in the history of this region in the last 1,000 years. In particular, this warming was responsible for the collapse of Larsen A ice shelf in 1995 and Larsen B in 2002. Further south, Larsen C has thinned and continued warming could lead to its breakup within the next decade. Few observations were available during the collapse of Larsen A, but satellite observations showed that Larsen B collapsed in 3 weeks, and tributary glaciers accelerated up to eightfold in a few months. With the advent of new satellites (MODIS, ASTER, ICESat, ERS-2, Envisat, Radarsat, Cryosat), and a growing scientific interest, it is timely to establish a research program in this region to estimate its mass balance and follow the glacier evolution prior to collapse. We propose a detailed survey of the glaciers draining into the lower part of Larsen C. This area hosts the largest outflow of ice from the northern half of the Peninsula. Available ice-thickness data suggest Mobil Oil Inlet leads to a deep channel between the two sides of the Peninsula, which could isolate the northern Peninsula if Larsen-C collapses. In 2002, CECS/NASA collected the first airborne laser altimetry data over this region and GPS-tagged ice thickness data. A second successful campaign took place in 2004. During IPY, we propose to acquire new airborne data as well as surface data to complement them. This will include detailed surveys of glacier thickness and annual layering using GPR, snow pits/shallow ice cores, melt events, local climate from AWS, and continuous GPS glacier velocities. The resulting data will be used for mass-balance estimates, the determination of the sensitivity of the glaciers to force perturbations ranging from tidal to progressive ice-shelf thinning, and to develop models capable of simulating observed changes. The program will give us an exclusive look at the glacier settings before, and perhaps after, ice-shelf collapse, providing a wealth of information needed to develop the models needed for reliable studies of future sea-level change. The data will be complemented by data collected on Larsen-C ice shelf by SPRI/BAS scientists on its melting/thinning regime. Real time access to AWS will be provided by RF links to Rothera. Our data will provide a baseline for future campaigns.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This project is relevant to IPY themes 1-2-4. We will establish a benchmark of ground and satellite data for studying the evolution of Antarctic Peninsula glaciers in a warming climate, which has important implications for understanding the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We will improve current estimates of the mass balance of this region, which has an important impact on sea level rise. We will bring a legacy of international cooperation in this region, in the wake of the CECS/NASA effort. .

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
This project combines teams from NASA Wallops, NASA JPL, Centro de Estudios Cientificos (Chile), and Chilean armed forces (cooperation for logistics). We are in contact with SPRI and BAS to discuss sharing some of the logistics.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The field operation will take place near Mobil Oil Inlet, at 68.5 South, 66 West, and spreading from the Larsen C ice shelf on the east coast to the glaciers draining into Marguerite Bay on the west coast. Access to the glaciers is planned to be carried out with Chilean Twin Otters or other small aircrafts and snowmobiles.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: 11/06 – 12/06      11/07 – 12/07      11/08 – 12/08

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
CECS has solid experience working with the Chilean armed forces in both small and large airplanes. Contacts will be made with the Chilean armed forces to secure field logistics. We envision new airborne campaigns with the Chilean Navy P3 following the 2002 and 2004 campaigns; and operations in the field with Twin Otters or other small aircrafts, with fuel depot from long-range ski-equipped aircraft. Contacts will be made with SPRI and BAS – and other interested scientific parties – to share logistical resources with this project.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The project will leave a legacy of field logistical procedures, e.g. the deployment of small field parties by small aircraft to access this part of the Peninsula. It will leave AWS stations with real time relays to research stations and the internet for at least 1-2 years beyond IPY based on experience accumulated with the Greenland AWS network.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

CECS is funded to pursue research activities in this region. NASA has committed funding for airborne surveys of this region in the past. NSF’s OPP has expressed interest in seeing teams of scientists getting access to the east coast of the Peninsula. We will seek a combination of funds from CECS, NASA and NSF for this project.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
N We plan to submit a proposal for a proposal to NSF’s OPP in June 2005, and a companion proposal to NASA in a 2005 NRA.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?


This project has links with APICs (T. Scambos), and ongoing glaciology research by H. Rott’s group in Austria, Skvarca’s group in Argentina, Shepherd’s group at SPRI and Jenkins’ group in England. This project started in 2002. Its activity should culminate in IPY. We are open to sharing logistics with other international parties.

How will the project be organised and managed?
Project leaders will be determined by activities (field deployment, climatology, radar sounding, remote sensing, GPS, snow accumulation, etc.). A lead scientist will represent our project during field missions, airborne deployment, and science meetings. Most of our team members have extensive experience organizing complex field projects and large research programs, and have collaborated closely in recent years in Antarctica or Greenland. We will hold regular science meetings to coordinate activities, plan deployments, meet with other research groups, national and international agencies, and outreach the broader community. Our project will involve students both in the US and in Chile.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
We seek to deploy AWS with RF links to Rothera for real time downlinking of data (climate data, GPS velocity), which will be made accessible to students and the public by the internet. This will provide real time access to glaciology data to the broaded community as well as continuous observations of glacier and climate beyond field campaigns. The program will involve the participation of students both in the field and at the laboratory.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Airborne/spaceborne remote sensing data and field data collected and analyzed in this project will be public domain per NASA and NSF’s policy. Airborne radar sounding data and laser altimetry data are routinely posted on the web since the early 1990s. Glacier velocity data will be distributed to NSIDC. Climate data collected by Univ. Colorado are routinely posted on the web.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
We propose to combine funds from NSF OPP (glaciology), NASA (cryospheric science program), and international partners (CECS, BAS, SPRI) to fund the project. Project success relies on long-term cooperation between NASA, CECS and Chilean armed forces. A research proposal will be submitted to NSF OPP in June 2005. A companion proposal will be submitted to NASA in 2005.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr. Eric Rignot
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
MS 300-321
4800 Oak Grove Drive
Pasadena CA 91109-8099
USA

Tel: +1 818 354 1640
Mobile: +1 818 653 2531
Fax: +1 818 393 5184
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation