Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Antarctic Climate Evolution  (ACE)

Outline
ACE is a new international research initiative, just recently approved and funded by SCAR, to study the climate and glacial history of Antarctica through palaeoclimate and ice sheet modelling investigations, purposefully integrated with terrestrial and marine geological and geophysical evidence for past changes.Antarctica has been glaciated for approximately 34 million years, but its ice sheets have fluctuated considerably and are one of the major driving forces for changes in global sea level and climate throughout the Cenozoic Era. The spatial scale and temporal pattern of these fluctuations is subject to considerable debate. Determination of the scale and rapidity of the response of large ice masses to climatic forcing is of vital importance because ice-volume variations impact global sea level and also alter the capacity of ice sheets and sea ice to act as major heat sinks/insulators. It is thus important to assess the stability of the cryosphere in the face of rising CO2 levels, particularly as modelling of the climate shifts from a warm, vegetated Antarctica to a cold, ice-covered state 34 Myrs ago has shown the powerful influence of greenhouse gases on the Earth’s climate systems. As Antarctica is a major driver of Earth's climate and sea level, much effort has been expended in deriving models of its behaviour. Some of these models have been successfully validated against modern conditions. Modelling the past record of ice-sheet behaviour in response to changes in climate (inferred from ice cores for example), palaeoceanographic conditions (inferred from palaeoecology and climate proxies in ocean sediments) and palaeogeography (as recorded in landscape evolution) is the next step. ACE aims to facilitate research in the broad area of Antarctic climate evolution over a variety of timescales. The programme will link geophysical surveys and geological studies on and around the Antarctic continent with ice-sheet and climate modelling experiments. ACE is designed to determine both climate conditions and climatic changes during the recent past (i.e., the Holocene prior to anthropogenic impacts, as well as at the last glacial maximum and other Quaternary glaciations, when temperatures were cooler than at present) and the more distant past (i.e. the pre-Quaternary, when global temperatures were several degrees warmer than today). This new cross-disciplinary approach, involving climate and ice sheet modellers, geologists, and geophysicists will lead to a substantial improvement in the knowledge-base on past Antarctic climate, and our understanding of the factors that have guided its evolution. This in turn will allow us to build hypotheses, examinable through numerical modelling, as to how Antarctic climate is likely to respond to future global change. Equally important, the development of data-driven models for Antarctic climate will allow us to extend our results to the analysis and prediction of global climate variability.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The broad outcomes of ACE will include an appreciation of how the Antarctic ice sheet responds to climate change. Specifically, the project will identify the form and flow of the ice sheet during past time slices in which there is geological evidence of past climate change. This will allow us to better understand the ice sheet history of Antarctica, as well as to develop ‘test cases’ in which models of present ice sheet variability can be tested and calibrated.The ice-sheet modelling undertaken through ACE will be directly relevant to understanding changes in the polar regions, and their global connections.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
ACE is an international programme, which will facilitate and encourage modelling and data acquisition projects funded by individual nations. Through its involvement in SCAR, ACE is connected to many nations. Those specifically involved in ice sheet modelling include France, Italy, Germany, Spain, New Zealand, UK and USA.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
ACE is a model/data intercomparison and analysis project. It fully encourages data acquisition efforts such as ANDRILL, SHALDRILL, SOIMAGES, IODP, however, to take place within the IPY period. Planned work will take place on the Ross Ice Shelf, off Wilkes Land, near the Antarctic Peninsula, and in the Scotia Sea, but other activities could occur throughout Antarctica.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: 2006-2008      2006-2007      2005-2008

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
ACE is an ice sheet modelling and model/data intercomparison and analysis project. Logistics support is required to the extent needed to facilitate active international collaboration and data exchange. The major data collection projects are separately funded.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The models developed and tested by ACE will have a significant legacy for future investigations of past climates and ice sheets of Antarctica (and elsewhere).

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Yes. ACE is a new Scientific Research Programme of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research. The proposal was submitted in 2003 and went through 2 rounds of revison and review before being officially approved in 2004.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Yes

How will the project be organised and managed?
ACE will manage its research through the committee of the SCAR Scientific Research Programme, co-chaired by Dunbar and Siegert. ACE will be organised into a series of sub-programmes, each taking responsibility for a specific ‘time-slice’ of Antarctica’s history, and each having a named chairperson. Time slices to be examined include:Eocene-Oligocene events (34 million years ago)Oligocene-Miocene boundary Mi-1 glaciation (24 million years ago)Middle Miocene record (~10 million years ago)Pliocene record (5-1.8 million years ago)Pleistocene glacial cycles and intervals of extreme warmth and cold (last 1.8 million years)Last Glacial Cycle and Deglaciation (last 120,000 years)The Holocene (last 10,000 years)IPY activities requiring ice sheet modelling over these timescales will benefit greatly from collaboration with ACE.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
ACE will endeavour to support the next generation of Antarctic scientists in three ways. First, an online lecture series paralleling the findings and outcomes of the ACE programme will be made available to schools, colleges and universities via the ACE website. Second, we will encourage young scientists to take part in ACE workshops by offering bursaries for travel and subsistence. Third, we will facilitate the exchange of scientists and students between our respective institutions. We are actively raising funds for this outreach component.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
As a modelling and model/data intercomparison project ACE will not necessarily generate ‘data’. It will, however, generate models, which will be available to the wider palaeoclimate communities via its website (www.ace.scar.org) and its symposia. It will also generate tangible products in the form of model/data comparative analyses. These results will also be archived.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
SCAR will fund the ACE programme management ($15,000 per year). However, individual subprojects will need to secure monies from individual funding agencies and research councils. We wish to apply for IPY funding to organize several thematic activities, to occur during the IPY.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Robert Dunbar
Stanford University
Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences
Stanford, CA
94305
USA

Tel: 650-725-6830
Mobile: 650-799-8708
Fax: 650-799-8708
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation