Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Cold Land Processes in Northern Eurasia and its Coastal Zone: Regional and Global Climate and Societal-Ecosystem Linkages and Interactions  (Cold Land Processes in NEESPI)

Outline
Proposed activity is an indispensable part of Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI; http://neespi.gsfc.nasa.gov). To study Cold Land and Coastal Zone processes, we will use modeling, targeted field campaigns, and data assimilation. The legacy of modern observations (in situ and remote) and models will allow monitoring, projecting and assessing consequences of these processes, and their changes.Cold Land Regions (CLR) comprise more than half of the Northern Eurasia area. Paleodata, instrumental observations, and model simulations of future climate changes suggest significant and rapid changes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and land cover occur in Northern Eurasia particularly over the CLR. It is critical to develop the ability to measure, monitor, and model the processes that will provide accurate future projections of climatic and environmental changes in these regions because these changes have the potential to impact the Global Earth System and human society. We need to understand how the changes in these regions affect regional and global biogeochemical, surface energy and water cycles, as well as human societies and how to develop the capability to predict changes to support global projections, informed decision making, and numerous applications in these regions. Changing properties of permafrost are an important driver of the ecosystem balance and affect the carbon, energy, and water cycles in the CLR, especially in very sensitive Arctic coastal zone. The robustness of the infrastructure and ecosystems in the CLR relies on the stability of ice that maintains these systems. Thawing permafrost puts these systems at risk. Therefore, we need to: establish (restore, develop, utilize) an observational system to retrieve and properly interpret information about the current state and changes of the environment in the CLR; assess their interactions with global climate and society; and enhance the predictive capability of Earth System models to account for environmental changes over Northern Eurasia and the globe.Objectives: · Establish and support a comprehensive permafrost monitoring system in the CLR of Northern Eurasia and its coastal zone. · Develop reliable models accounting for changes in permafrost and its interactions with terrestrial ecosystems, hydrology, atmosphere, and society in the framework of integrated change assessment and incorporate them into emerging global Earth System models. · Assess societal-ecosystem interactions within the CLR to: (a) include the societal feedback loop in Global Earth models, (b) determine the impacts of permafrost changes on humans, and (c) develop mitigation strategies for the populations negatively affected by permafrost thaw.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Projected environmental changes may include significant feedbacks to · Global Carbon Cycle: Shifts in ecosystem distributions, changes in the net ecosystem exchange and resultant CO2 and methane atmospheric emissions.· Global Energy Cycle: Land cover changes affect the entire surface energy budget· Global Water Cycle: Changes in the fresh water Arctic budget control the World Ocean thermohaline circulation. · Global Climate: All the above.· Human Societies: Changes in key life support systems caused by permafrost thaw, ecosystems’ and climatic change.We anticipate reducing the uncertainty of these projections. This will empower societies to react to deleterious changes with timely mitigation strategies.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Several U.S (UAF, NOAA-NCDC, NASA-GSFC), Russian (MGO, Sukachev Institute, FEBRAS), Japanese (Hokkaido University), and International Institutions (IARC, IGPO) comprise the research team. Collaboration with current NEESPI projects will be secured. Proposed activities will be open to all IPY research teams. Collaboration in field campaigns and data sharing is guaranteed.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Selected network of meteorological stations and research sites in Siberia with enhanced observational program (new sites and established stations such as Russian Heat-Balance network).Pacific sector of the Arctic coastal zone: the Laptev, East-Siberian, Chukchi, and Bering Seas.These efforts will be co-ordinated with other IPY observational activities (e.g. CEOP).

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 07/07-10/07      07/08-10/08      01/07 – 12/08
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Oceanographic vessels will be required for Arctic Seas field campaigns. Resources could be shared with other IPY projects. Selected field stations and observatories (heat balance stations) will be equipped with modern soil temperature monitoring systems.Human societies studies need to be supported with GIS, remote sensing and special in-situ observations.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Yes. Project instrumentation will be transferred to the local authorities who will continue observation programs until the useful life of instrumentation expires.Models and data collections will become an indispensable part of the regional (and global) knowledge base available through the USA and Russian World Data Centers for Meteorology.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Logistics associated with data accumulation, quality control, management, and dissemination will be secured by the NOAA-National Climatic Data Center in the framework of the projects currently supported by NOAA Office of Global Programs. Field studies will be supported by FEBRAS, IARC and via proposals to national funding agencies.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
NEESPI Science Plan has been endorsed by International Panel of Experts in 2003/2004. Currently, endorsements are being sought from WCRP and IGBP projects (CliC, GEWEX, GCP, and GLP).Several NEESPI-related projects have been funded by NOAA, NASA, and RAS. Additional projects have been submitted to NASA and NSF

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?


NEESPI is a new international initiative that builds on and co-ordinates a number of existing national projects being conducted in Eurasia and incorporates new elements necessary to fully address issues in the NEESPI science plan.

How will the project be organised and managed?
Steering Committee of representatives of participating Institutions will be established.Field campaigns will be managed from one location (tentatively, IARC/UAF). Currently funded projects will corroborate their plans, information needs, and formats of data exchange. Planning activities and implementation will be co-ordinated by several national and one international NEESPI project offices. A set of linked proposals will be developed and submitted to agencies in the United States, Russia, European Union, and Japan. Based on the success of these proposals, the Steering Committee will develop the final implementation plan maximizing project output given the level of available funding.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Graduate and post-graduate students from Russia, Japan, and the United States will be involved in joint field and analytical work within the Project. Special programs for training of observers to maintain modern instrumentation at the land-based network in Russia will be developed. Publications in international and local journals/newspapers are planned.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Initial data management will be conducted at participating institutions using standard formats and common language (Bilingual with English as a preferred option) in the fist steps of the data gathering. Thereafter, a common database will be created at the NOAA NCDC and common quality control routines will be implemented.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Some components of proposed activities are already funded and/or considered by national agencies. Information and knowledge gaps requiring further study will be addressed in a set of linked proposals to national agencies in the United States, Russia, and Japan and to the World Bank and European Union.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) is an emerging broad-based international program in scientific collaboration, project sponsorship, and organizational leadership (http://neespi.gsfc.nasa.gov). It will draw upon and complement existing and planned national and international research programs with the goal of developing a multi-disciplinary, integrated understanding of environmental processes in this important region of the globe and how they relate to the functioning of the global Earth system. Studying of Cold Land Processes and processes in Coastal Zone make up 2 (out of 3) major cross-cutting themes of the NEESPI Science Plan.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Pavel Groisman
National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
Federal Building, 151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, North Carolina
28801
USA

Tel: 001828271-4347
Mobile: no
Fax: 001 828 271-4328
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation