Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Future changes of climate, chemical composition, and UV at high latitudes  (CCMProg (Chemistry-Climate Models for the Prognosis of Atmospheric Changes))

Outline
There was no Antarctic ozone hole at the last International Geophysical Year (IGY) in 1957-58, the ozone hole during the 2007-08 IPY will be close to as bad as it has ever been but perhaps with some indication of recovery, and possibly there will be no ozone hole by the 2057-58 IGY/IPY. Therefore, we propose a study to investigate how the largest environmental impact on the polar regions will evolve over this crucial period centred on the 2007-08 IPY. Interactively coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) of the troposphere and the stratosphere will be used to investigate past and to assess future changes of climate and atmospheric chemical composition at higher geographical latitudes of the Earth’s atmosphere, particularly of ozone in the stratosphere. Related changes of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation will be determined. Stratospheric ozone continues to decrease significantly, at least at high latitudes in spring. Not only is the area of the Antarctic ("ozone hole") affected, but, to a smaller extent, the area of ozone depletion at higher northern latitudes. The reason for the ozone decrease has been the release of long-lasting halogen containing compounds from man-made (anthropogenic) activity. Although it is expected that ozone depletion is likely to be at or near its maximum (due to the control of ozone depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments and adjustments), the timing and extent of ozone recovery in the stratosphere is uncertain (due to considerable natural variability and feedback with climate change). CCMs will be used to simulate first atmospheric dynamics and chemistry of recent decades and the current state of the atmosphere. In addition to “free-running” CCMs, so-called ‘nudged’ CCM versions (i.e., forced by observed dynamics) will be employed to investigate short-term episodes in detail, for example campaign measurements. The model results will be evaluated against observations, in particular additional observations made as part of the IPY, to validate the models and to determine their strengths and weaknesses. This is the basis for further model developments. Improved CCMs will be used to estimate the possible future change of climate and ozone, especially considering the feedback mechanisms of dynamical and chemical processes. The model results will be the basis for scenario calculations of expected UV changes, with particular focus on latitudes poleward of 60 degree of both hemispheres.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The focus of the proposal will be on detection and attribution of polar ozone recovery, and early signalling of other potential threats to the polar atmosphere. We will provide much more reliable predictions of ozone recovery in the Arctic and Antarctic due to decreasing CFCs since the feedback of changes in climate and chemical composition of the Earth’s atmosphere will be included in the model simulations. We further intend to clarify the opposing effect of climate change on polar stratospheric ozone. Estimates of future UV changes will be more comprehensive: Not only will the expected changes in ozone concentration be considered, but also changes in relevant meteorological parameters, e.g., cloud cover, cloud/ice water content, droplet/particle size.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Evaluation of the CCMs is strongly linked to the SPARC-Project CCMVal which brings together all CCM groups world-wide. The main goal of CCMVal is a process-oriented validation of CCMs. Additionally, 10 European CCM groups are involved in the Integrated Project SCOUT-O3 within the 6th framework programme of the European Commission (2004-2009). The main focus of SCOUT-O3 is directed on the tropics/tropical processes. A number of troposphere-stratosphere CCMs are involved in the EC Network of Excellence ACCENT.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Validation of models will make use of measurements from a number of polar stations; most satellite instruments cannot make measurements during polar night.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Model validation and improvement requires observational data from polar regions. Enhanced IPY observation campaigns are most welcome for the objectives of this EoI. For example, one participant of this EoI (FMI) intents to increase the polar O3 sounding frequency for IPY. The project will make use of High Performance Computing (HPC), because very efficient computers are needed to run CCMs. These computers are already available at different institutions.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Yes, CCMs which will be used in the project will be part of so-called Earth-System models, which are currently under development. Such models will also include other components, like the ocean, the biosphere, the hydrosphere, the upper atmosphere. Model validation will improve quality control of the enhanced observational campaigns of IPY.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Other sources of support

Currently, computer power is partly freely available (i.e., no extra costs) due to contracts between governmental institutions and research institutes, e.g. DLR can use the computers of the German Climate Computer Centre (DKRZ) for free.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Yes! The SCOUT-O3 project is funded within the 6th framework programme of the European Commission.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Expansion

Modelling activities during the IPY will be strongly connected with the SPARC-Project CCMVal. It is planned to extend the work plan of the SCOUT-O3 project with particular focus on polar regions.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The management structure of SCOUT-O3 Activity 1 (CCM modelling) will be taken as the basis for this project. This SCOUT-O3 activity (lead: Martin Dameris and Ulrike Langematz) is organised in nine work packages, each work package has two leaders. In addition, the SPARC-project CCMVal and its international cross-linkage will help to reach the goals of the project.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The project is highly suitable for the education of young scientists. It is planned to have masters and PhD students working on the project. Areas mainly covered are meteorology, chemistry, physics, mathematics, computer science. The project has also relations to biology.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Data from the SCOUT-O3 project will be collected and made available to the participants. Therefore, a data protocol has been agreed. It is planned to add the data of this project which then would be available to all participating groups and institutions. Beside data collected at polar stations, data for validation from data distribution networks such as the NDSC and WOUDC will be used.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
The plan is to increase the money available within SCOUT-O3 by sending requests to national science foundations. It is likely that additional funding will be made available by national science foundations to support IPY related activities.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
It is an intention to include the human dimension to this EoI through the Arctic and Antarctic Research communities dealing with the effects of UV-radiation on human population and natural life.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr  Martin Dameris
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre
Oberpfaffenhofen
Wessling
82230
Germany

Tel: +49-8153-281558
Mobile: no
Fax: +49-8153-281841
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation