Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Glaciers, Climate and Sea Level  (GLACSL)

Outline
The potentially large contribution to rising sea level from global melting of glaciers (not including the polar ice sheets) was first estimated by Meier (1984), who concluded the largest contributions can likely be attributed to thinning and retreating glaciers in the mountains (i) bordering the Gulf of Alaska; (ii) of central Asia, including the Karakorum and Himalayas; (iii) of the southern Andes, including the Icefields of Patagonia; (iv) of Iceland, Svalbard and Franz Josef Island, Novaya Zemlya; and (v) of the Canadian high arctic, including Ellesmere and Baffin Islands. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) estimates that melting glaciers were among the largest contributors to rising mean sea level during 1910 to 1990. The uncertainty of this contribution is large, however, as is the uncertainty of the probable contribution from glaciers to rising sea level during the coming century. We propose to extend the interdisciplinary research program on glaciers, climate, the ocean and solid-earth deformation in southern Alaska that is now in progress at the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, in collaboration with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, to a global scale involving international collaboration. A central objective will be to reduce the uncertainty of the global contribution from melting glaciers to rising sea level during the past century by more accurately measuring glacier mass balances using state of the art technology, in particular in the regions noted above. A closely related objective will be to reduce the uncertainty of estimated sea-level rise from melting glaciers during the coming century, using state of the art atmospheric models in conjunction with glacier mass balance models calibrated to the measured glaciers in each region. The technology we anticipate using will include small-aircraft laser altimetry, which has been used successfully in NW North America (e.g., Arendt et al., 2002); NASA’s airborne DC-8 AIRSAR system, particularly in remote, high-altitude regions such as the Karakorum and Himalayas, and NASA’s P3 airborne scanning laser altimeter system, which has been used successfully in regions such as Greenland and the Canadian arctic archipelago (e.g., Krabill et al., 2000). We propose to carry out this program via a distributed network of glaciologists and other collaborators in the nations governing the regions of interest. Educational and public outreach programs will be included (see section 3.3, below). References Arendt, A.A., K.A. Echelmeyer, W.D. Harrison, C.S. Lingle, V.B. Valentine. 2002. Rapid wastage of Alaska Glaciers and their contribution to rising sea level. Science, 297, 382-386. Meier, M.F., 1984. Contribution of small glaciers to global sea level. Science, 226, 1418-1421. Rignot, E., A. Rivera, and G. Casassa. 2003. Contribution of the Patagonia Icefields of South America to sea level rise. Science, 302, 434-437. Krabill, W., W. Abdalati, E. Frederick, S. Manizade, C. Martin, J. Sonntag, R. Swift, R. Thomas, W. Wright, J. Yungel. 2000. Greenland ice sheet: high elevation balance and peripheral thinning. Science, 289, 428-430.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
As noted in the project outline (section 1.3, above), we anticipate this project will (i) reduce the uncertainty of the global contribution from melting glaciers to mean sea-level rise during the past century by more accurately measuring glacier mass balances using state of the art technology, and (ii) reduce the uncertainty of the estimated contribution from melting glaciers to rising sea level during the coming century by employing state of the art atmospheric models in conjunction with glacier mass balance models calibrated to the measured glaciers in each region.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
We expect to collaborate with scientists in Chile regarding assessment of the mass balances of glaciers in the southern Andes, including the Patagonian Icefields; in Nepal regarding mass balance assessments in the Himalayas; in Pakistan regarding glacier mass balance measurements in the Karakorum, and in other countries as needed. Potential collaborators (TBD) may include: Gino Casassa, Centro de Estudios Cientificos, Valdivia, Chile; Andres Rivera, Centro de Estudios Cientificos, Valdivia, Chile; Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal. Our Napalese liaison will be: Birbal Rana, formerly of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Kathmandu, Nepal. Mr. Rana is now working with Wendell Tangborn (a participant in this proposed project) at Hymet, Inc., Vashon, Washington, U.S.A.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
(i) Alaska (U.S.A.), Yukon and NW British Columbia (Canada); (ii) the high mountains of central Asia, including the Karakorum and Himalayas; (iii) the southern Andes, including the Icefields of Patagonia; (iv) Iceland, Svalbard and Franz Josef Island, Novaya Zemlya; and (v) the Canadian high arctic, including the glaciers of Ellesmere and Baffin Islands. *Field work is defined here to include – and in most cases, will consist primarily of—airborne laser altimetry carried out with a small aircraft; airborne scanning laser altimetry carried out with NASA’s P3-based system; and high-accuracy airborne mapping using NASA’s DC-8 AIRSAR system, with accurate positioning in each case obtained with coupled onboard (kinematic) Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements including differential postprocessing of the data.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: Late spr (15 d) and late sum (15 d), Alaska/Yukon/BC      2007-08-09; Late sum, up to 20-30 d w/ transit for other N Hemisphere areas,      2007-08-09.
Antarctic: Late austral sum, 15 d w/ transit, for the Patagonia Icefields      2007-08-09      

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
In Alaska/Yukon/NW British Columbia, logistical support will consist of our small airplanes for laser altimetry, combined with existing ground transportation used for the projects summarized in section 3.1, below. In other regions, the required logistical support will consist of NASA’s DC-8 (for AIRSAR mapping), and NASA’s P-3 (for scanning laser altimetry). Both of the latter are and will continue to be used for many projects other than ours.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The legacy of this project will be datasets consisting of accurate, geolocated, digital glacier elevation profiles (in the case of laser or scanning laser altimetry), and high-resolution digital elevation models (in the case of AIRSAR mapping), acquired in the main glacierized areas of the world, that will serve as baselines for future measurements, i.e., mass balance assessments.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own national polar operator
National agency
Commercial operator
Own support
Other sources of support

Ancillary logistical support will be arranged with glaciologists and other collaborators in the nations governing the glacierized regions of interest. This may involve making arrangements for flights from local airfields and, possibly, remote airstrips. It may be necessary to reach selected glaciers for ground observations, and this will be worked out with local scientists and/or others as required in each case.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
This expression of interest is in the process of being considered by the US National Committee for IPY.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Expansion

This proposed IPY project will build on four research projects now in progress at the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks (GI/UAF), and at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). These projects are funded by NASA and NSF. They are: (1) “Glaciers, Climate, the Ocean and Solid-Earth Deformation in Southern Alaska: an Interdisciplinary Study,” NASA grant NNG04GH64G, 3 years. The PI is Craig Lingle, with Co-I’s Uma Bhatt, Keith Echelmeyer, Jeff Freymueller, Chris Larsen, Roman Motyka, Jing Zhang (all of GI/UAF), Wendell Tangborn (of Hymet, Inc., Vashon, Washington), and Erik Ivins (of JPL, Pasadena, California). (2) “Contribution to Sea Level Rise of Changes in Ice Volume and Ice Flow Dynamics of Alaska Glaciers,” NASA grant NAG5-13760, 3 years. The lead PI is Eric Rignot (of JPL); the Alaska PI is Keith Echelmeyer, with Co-I’s Roman Motyka and Craig Lingle. (3) “Volume Change of North American Glaciers by Repeat Airborne Profiling,” N! SF grant OPP-9876421 plus a follow-on grant for data analysis, 4 + 2 years. The PI is Keith Echelmeyer; the Co-I is William Harrison (of GI/UAF). (4) “Contribution to Rising Sea Level from Thinning Glaciers in South America,” PI Eric Rignot (funded by NASA). In addition, this EOI is related to the EOI submitted by Dr. Rignot to study the glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula (APY). The above funded projects have end dates prior to the beginning of IPY, and thus will not be ongoing in their present forms during IPY.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be organized and managed as a set of linked subprojects, each with a coordinator who will be a Co-I with expertise in that subproject area. The overall budget will be subdivided among the Co-I’s, making each the principal investigator, in effect, of his or her component of the project. Overall coordination will be carried out by the PI, via personal interaction with Co-I’s at the Geophysical Institute, UAF, and mostly by e-mail (almost certainly) with distant collaborating scientists. The project is envisioned to last at least 3, and if possible 4 years because of the significant time interval that is needed between repeat measurements of glaciers. Meetings among project personnel will be held during the second and subsequent years; these may be at scientific conferences such as European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assemblies, or National Fall Meetings of the American Geophysical Union (AGU).

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Our initial plan is to carry out community-based outreach involving K-12 students, scientist mentorship, and indigenous knowledge, oriented toward Alaska native students who are lacking in scientific knowledge and technological skills. Our outreach program will be coordinated through the Geophysical Institute’s ongoing educational outreach program that is supported by the U.S. Dept. of Education and the National Science Foundation; the PI is Kathryn Berry-Bertram. This program, which is oriented toward volcanoes, global climate change and the aurora, has been highly successful. It is now mandatory throughout the middle schools of interior Alaska. We envision augmenting it by adding glaciers and their relationships with climate and sea level via a curriculum that will include personal interaction with the students and field observations. A possible venue for public outreach will be the Geophysical Institute’s “Science for Everyone” lecture series, consisting of lectures by Geophysical Institute faculty presented in Fairbanks, Anchorage and Juneau, Alaska, each winter. This lecture series is popular and attracts audiences of significant size.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Our initial data management plan will include making use of the existing organization and management structure established at the Geophysical Institute for handling small-aircraft laser altimeter measurements on glaciers. This data management scheme has proven to be well-organized and effective, and includes adequate backup. The altimeter data are archived at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder. This may prove to be the best archive for all of the project data.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Funding will be sought via proposals submitted to NASA’s Cryospheric Sciences Program (or it’s successor, given NASA’s current reorganization), and/or the National Science Foundation’s Office of Polar Program. It will be necessary for participants in other countries to obtain funding from their home agencies, in accordance with the policies of the U.S. government regarding international collaboration in federally funded research.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
Not at this time.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Prof Craig Lingle
University of Alaska Fairbanks
903 Koyukuk Drive (P.O. Box 757320)
Fairbanks, AK (Alaska)
99775-7320
USA

Tel: +1-907-474-7679
Mobile: no
Fax: +1-907-474-7290
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation