Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

CANADA# 65: International Conference devoted to a scientific synthesis of state-of-the-art understanding on the topic of "Polar Climate Stability”, led by the CFCAS sponsored Polar Climate Stability Network.  (ICPCS (International Conference on Polar Climate Stability))

Outline
With the recent publication of the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA), awareness of the importance of ongoing climate changes in the Arctic has been raised significantly. In Canada, a variety of polar scientific initiatives have been undertaken, including ArcticNet focussed primarily upon biospheric aspects of the polar ocean, and PEARL (for Polar Environmental Atmospheric Research Laboratory), a newly equipped laboratory at the Eureka station in the Canadian Arctic for the study of atmospheric change. These efforts may be further augmented by the initiation of a new network devoted to Arctic science in which the goal is to place Arctic climate change in a global perspective through the application of both large scale and regional climate models tested against paleoclimatic data derived from ice cores, deep sea cores, lake sediments and other proxy climate archives. This network is scheduled to begin activity early in 2005 and is entitled “The Polar Climate Stability Network”. The International Polar Year will coincide with the mid-point of operation of the 5 year plan of this CFCAS sponsored Network and with a major phase of scientific integration of its research programme. Our proposed IPY activity is an International meeting on the topic of Polar Climate Stability at the Banff Centre for Conferences in 2007, to be hosted by the Canadian Polar Climate Stability Network. By that time significant new results will be available from ArcticNet, from PEARL and from the PCSN and the proposed international meeting would provide an excellent means of highlighting the accomplishments of this suite of Canadian scientific programmes focussed upon the Arctic component of the global climate system. This meeting could be coupled to the PCSN plan to publish a special issue of the Journal of Climate of the American Meteorological Society as the first step in the synthesis of the findings of this programme. Since the incoming Chief Editor of the Journal of Climate is a PCSN PI, this aspect of the plan will undoubtedly go forward and will serve to give prominence to Canadian IPY activities. Scientists would be invited to report their findings to this meeting upon the following themes: Theme 1. Mechanisms of rapid climate change: Effects of altered Arctic freshwater balance on the Atlantic overturning circulation. Theme 2. Polar cryospheric stability. Rates and processes of degradation of sea ice, glaciers (including ice caps and ice sheets) and land fast sea ice. Theme 3. The role of Arctic Ocean in the climate system. Theme 4. Low latitude-High latitude teleconnections. Theme 5. The polar atmosphere: troposphere and stratosphere. Special Session: Global Climate in the absence of an Arctic Cryosphere The proposed International Conference on Polar Climate Stability would clearly constitute a "truly Canadian" contribution, as it focuses on the Arctic and would serve to highlight Canadian scientific contributions in an arena in which its excellence is widely acknowledged. From a national policy perspective, the impending Conference would result in further enhancing our efforts to provide improved predictions of climatic change in the Arctic and of the impact of such changes to be expected upon global climate in coming decades.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
ICPCS addresses four IPY themes in providing essential information on: i) linkage of processes between land, ice, atmosphere and ocean in the Arctic and surrounding lands (Status), ii) rates and trends of on-going climatic and ocean changes, through access to a wide range of time scales, thus leading to improved models for climatic change prediction (Changes) iii) all scales of climate-ocean Linkages and interactions between the Arctic and the rest of the globe, and of the processes controlling these interactions. It aims at promoting New Frontier research between a large group of disciplines: polar atmospheric science, oceanography, glaciology, paleoclimate and paleoceanography.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The proposed conference is aimed to provide an international forum for Arctic climate scientists. Leading scientists of the international Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project will be invited to serve on the program committee. This will include representatives of most European countries as well as the USA, Japan and other interested countries. ICPCS will also secure formal support from the American and Canadian Geophysical Unions.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
No field activities.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 05/07            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
The Banff Centre for Conferences would offer all needed facilities. Costs for attendance and for ancillary conference equipment that would be needed might be reduced through joint organization with the annual meeting of the Canadian Geophysical Union q2_4_Legacy : The legacy will not consist in a physical infrastructure, but in better climate models and a special publication of the Journal of Climate to insure broadest possible impact of the ICPCS initiative.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
National agency
Own support
Other sources of support

The cost of the Conference and of its organization will be covered by contributions from: i) the CFCAS sponsored PCSN ii) the European MOTIF program (cf. PMIP 2) and the WCRP sponsored CMIP iii) Funding agencies and sponsors (e.g., NSERC, NR-Can, Environment-Canada) iv) Participants in the Conference

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
The project has already been inserted into the program of the Canadian PCS network. It will be presented, December 15, 2004, to the international PMIP2 scientific committee, and, early in 2005, to all other supporting organizations (AGU, CGU, NR-Can, Environment-Canada...) This pre-proposal has been reviewed and is being submitted by the Canadian Steering Committee (CSC). Ongoing discussions will integrate this pre-proposal into a larger network of related national and international initiatives. The CSC has initially sorted this pre-proposal into: THEME: Educ, Out & Comm SUB-THEME: Conf & Workshops

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New

The symposium would be an outgrowth of the Polar Climate Stability Network initiative, a multidisciplinary collaboration involving scientists from nine Canadian universities and two federal departments. Funding has been solicited from the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences and this proposal is contingent on a successful outcome. (To be announced Dec 2004)

How will the project be organised and managed?
The organizing committee of the conference would include ex-officio members: - The PI of the Canadian PCS network - The PI of the MARGO (PMIP2) international project - The PI of the International CMIP project - Representatives of Canadian supporting agencies and 5 full scientist-members in charge of developing each theme of the conference, prior to its occurence, in order to promote research activities in the field. Each member will provide input into the corresponding program of the conference (invited speakers, review sub-committee , etc.).This committee will be formally established during the next (first) scientific meeting of the Canadian PCS network (May 2005).

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Recommendations will be diffused through IPCC channels (decision makers) and a special issue of a scientific journal. Other target audiences include: i) new polar researchers (student travel support), ii) the broader education community (sponsoring high school teachers, in particular those from Arctic communities, would be a highly desirable additional activity).

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
The project does not involve major data management issues. Coupled model results are usually made available to other researchers through the supporting scientific group web-gates (MARGO-PMIP2, CMIP, PCSN) and the new data bases on paleoclimate and paleoceanographic records in the Arctic and surrounding lands will be archived through existing international data bases (PANGAEA, NOAA)

How is it proposed to fund the project?
A total budget of 100 k$ (CAD) has been estimated for organizing the conference. The three major working groups concerned (PMIP2-MARGO), CMIP and the PCSN are expected to devote both funding and human resources to the project and the balance will be sought from supporting agencies and sponsors.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
The conference should attract a very large audience. The topic is timely and will provide a forum in which linkages between climate change measurements and climate change modelling are fully explored in a polar context. The keynote session on global climate in the absence of an Arctic cryosphere will attract very broad interest. The international community requires a careful assessment of the risks associated with the related changes to surface climate especially associated with the impact upon the circulation of the Arctic Ocean.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Prof Richard Peltier
Department of Physics
60 St. George Street
Toronto, ON
M5S 1A7
Canada

Tel: 1.416.978-2938
Mobile: no
Fax: 1.416.978-8905
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation