Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

CANADA #90: ARCTEC: A Cumulative Effects Toolbox for Northern Ecological and Social Systems  (ARCTEC (Arctic Cumulative effect Thresholds for Ecology and Communities))

Outline
We propose to develop a suite of cumulative effect assessment and management tools using real-world ecological and social Arctic case studies. Northern regions are facing unprecedented rates of change from resource extraction, climate change, technological innovation, and population growth. Northern communities and governments of all levels wish to plan for the future by understanding likely changes and by identifying and implementing cumulative effects tools that manage these changes in an integrated way. The science of cumulative effects theorizes that ecological, social, and economic conditions respond to increasing doses of natural and human-induced changes in ways that can be measured empirically (see Section 3.6 for additional information). Ecological and social outcomes have largely been considered in isolation. Practical options to manage cumulative effects can be identified by integrating or analyzing relationships between landscape change and ecological, social, and economic outcomes. Such models help empower northern governments, aboriginal groups, and communities to understand and accept the trade-offs associated with cumulative effects management. Canadian scientists are at the forefront of development and application of an integrated cumulative effects toolbox that includes three tool types: 1) ecological and socioeconomic dose-response relationships; 2) trade-off analyses informed by integrated landscape modelling tools; and 3) implementation frameworks that support desired ecological and socio-economic outcomes (see attached NEI CE Threshold Project Overview for additional information). In the north, this approach is hampered by: (a) a lack of empirical northern data with which to build dose-response relationships; (b) the need to incorporate local and traditional northern knowledge and understand regional preferences; (c) a shortage of knowledgeable and skilled northern practitioners; (d) lack of a unified approach across disciplines; and e) the need for innovative instruments to address fiscal and regulatory barriers. International Polar Year provides an unprecedented opportunity to make significant headway in addressing thesegaps by levering Canadian and Scandinavian work to develop integrated tools that can be readily used by Arctic decision-makers and industries. This will be achieved through a cooperative program that incorporates the data, knowledge and experience gained in other regions and countries (potentially including Canada (Mackenzie valley; southern Mackenzie Mountains; northwest British Columbia; Labrador); Russia (Karelia; Siberia); and Scandinavia). The ARCTEC project will leave a legacy of informed and skilled practitioners by: emphasizing community-based approaches that involve and train residents; educating graduate students; establishing permanent field sites and research infrastructure at northern institutions; developing targeted education, training, and modelling tools; and hopefully an endowed research position in sustainability of northern social and ecological systems.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Under Change, we will undertake work to quantify and understand past, present, and probable future conditions relative to a continuum of landscape change as a basis for developing predictive ecological, social, and integrated models. Under Human Dimensions we are involving communities to relate individual and group well-being (to landscape changes and will disseminate culturally appropriate information to increase the ability of decisionmakers to make informed planning and management decisions. Our project contributes to Current State by establishing a unified framework to quantify present conditions. Global linkages will be established by combining data, knowledge and experience gained in different Arctic regions and countries to develop dose-response relationships and frameworks for ecological and social sustainability in northern systems. New Frontiers in integrated socialecological systems analyses will be investigated.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
CANADA - Yukon, Northwest Territories, northern British Columbia, Nunavut, Labrador See confirmed project members in Section 4.2. Yukon College Aurora College, to be confirmed Nunavut Arctic College, to be confirmed College of the North Atlantic, to be confirmed Indian Affairs and Northern Development, to be confirmed (several existing and proposed initiatives are complementary) Environment Canada, to be confirmed (several existing and proposed initiatives are complementary) Fisheries and Oceans Canada, to be confirmed (several existing and proposed initiatives are complementary) Yukon Territorial Government, to be confirmed (several existing and proposed initiatives are complementary) Government of the Northwest Territories, to be confirmed (several existing and proposed initiatives are complementary) Government of Nunavut, to be confirmed (several existing and proposed initiatives are complementary) Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, to be confirmed (several existing and proposed initiatives are complementary) UNITED STATES Dr. Rabel Burdge (Western Washington University, potential) Dr. Robert Gramling (University of Southeastern Louisiana, potential) EURASIA – Karelia Per Angelstam (Swedish University of Agricultural Science; confirmed), Christian Nellemann (United Nations Environmental Program, Norway; confimed) Paula Horne (Finnish Forest Research Institute; potential) Lars Carlsson (Lulea University of Technology, Sweden; potential) EURASIA – Siberia Peter Lee (World Resources Institute)

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The project will focus on ecological and socio-economic systems in the northern boreal forests, taiga, and tundra of North America and Eurasia. We anticipate Case Studies and research in western (Karelia) and eastern (Siberia) Russia, and the northern boreal / taiga forests of Yukon, northern British Columbia, western NWT (e.g., Mackenzie valley), tundra of central NWT, Nunavut and Labrador, and perhaps Alaska.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 03/07 – 03/09            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Our requirements are: existing field stations; potentially new field stations (or mobile camps); helicopters; snow machines; commercial scheduled aircraft; community meeting rooms and accommodations. As noted in Sections 2.5 and 3.2, field logistics and community initiatives can be shared with other existing programmes and projects.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Field projects will establish long-term monitoring plots and community-based monitoring programs with trained community research assistants and liaisons. We anticipate establishing (i) research facilities at northern institutions for future logistic, analysis and teaching support around cumulative effects and social-ecological systems analysis; (ii) a legacy of permanent or semi-mobile field camps with links to appropriate organizations that can manage these facilities after IPY; and (iii) an endowed academic position focused on cumulative effects and integrated social-ecological systems analysis.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own national polar operator
Another national polar operator
National agency
Commercial operator
Own support
Other sources of support

We will partner with appropriate northern institutions to share existing facilities and help expedite logistics (e.g. Northern Research Institute of Yukon College; Parks Canada Parkbased infrastructure; First Nations field camps; the Fisheries and Oceans field facilities; the Science Institute of the NWT; U of A facilities; Hunter and Trappers’ Associations, species and land claim initiated management bodies commercial operators).

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
This pre-proposal has been reviewed and is being submitted by the Canadian Steering Committee (CSC). Ongoing discussions will integrate this pre-proposal into a larger network of related national and international initiatives. The CSC has initially sorted this pre-proposal into: THEME: Educ, Out & Comm SUB-THEME: Ref tools & Matls

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New

This project represents a novel initiative that provides a framework to integrate existing, disparate efforts among individuals and agencies. It will provide the resources and synergies necessary to make substantial contributions in natural and social sciences as well as develop capacity in communities and institutions to support efforts beyond the IPY timeframe.

How will the project be organised and managed?
We envisage an alliance of Case Studies/research projects managed by a full time Coordinator or Director and receiving overall direction from a Project Council. Each Case Study or project would have representation on the Council. An Interim Council comprised of key players behind this proposal will select the Coordinator. In conjunction with community leaders, the Council and Coordinator will choose the location, scope and content of Case Studies and research projects. Case Study and research project leaders will agree on common variables and measurement methods, and subsequently have a large degree of autonomy. Such autonomy allows community participants to tailor the research for their specific interests, and researchers to pursue other important variables unique to their region or discipline. Case Studies will be selected preferentially in areas with government-mandated planning processes to provide an established implementation framework and build upon existing partner projects.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The project will produce a legacy of education and communications tools including: (i) hiring and training community participants; (ii) one or more user-friendly landscape models for classroom use; (iii) legacy infrastructure of field camps that can be used by communities (e.g., Rediscovery camps); (iv) training northern scientists in application of cumulative effects tools; (v) documenting the approach in film and software formats; (vi) identifying practical implementation frameworks for each Case Study; (vii) establishing a repository of data, academic, and culturally-appropriate information; and (viii) attempting to establish an endowed academic position for cumulative effects analysis and sustainability of northern social-ecological systems at a northern research institution.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
We plan a well documented digital data collection and management system, under the supervision of the project Coordinator. The project will develop its own, peer-reviewed data collection and management protocols to ensure necessary quality in replicated, georeferenced sampling across case studies, and in establishment of geo-referenced permanent plots. The project will develop its own web-based database administration system, with published digital data capture and storage protocols. The exact format of the data administration will depend in part on how the Canadian IPY Secretariat plans to coordinate administration among IPY projects (e.g., use of ICSU World Data Centres). Social and economic data will be collected, used, and stored according to Tri-Council and Northern guidelines.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
None of the funding is secured at present. The project cannot proceed without a substantial novel funding source associated with IPY. The project would raise funds for the high-cost Legacy Infrastructure items (new research lab, and endowed academic position) separately from IPY funding sources (e.g., Canadian Fund for Innovation for a new research lab). However, IPY endorsement is crucial to success in legacy fundraising. Of the budgeted items linked to IPY ($14,800,000), we estimate that approximately 25% ($3,600,000) can be raised from government, NGO and foundation support, independent of IPY through government-facilitated planning exercises that would become Case Studies in this project (e.g., British Columbia LRMPs, Yukon / First Nations land use planning process, Northern Ecosystem Initiative funding in Yukon / NWT). Partner funding could also come through NGO / foundation / industry support for other community based initiatives that become Case Studies (e.g., CIDA in Russia; EU in Karelia; Canadian Boreal Initiative in the Mackenzie valley). Dr. Krogman intends to apply for standard grant SSHRC funding to support the sociological portion of this project. Before IPY Cdn $ Workshops to Scope Project and Case Studies (2005 & 2006) 120,000 Coordinator Salary & support (incl. fund-raising) (2006-07) 160,000 During IPY (2007-2009) Coordination and Administration (Salary, support, travel) 240,000 Case Studies ( 6 multiples of each line item) Field facilities (camps or buildings, and support) $100,000 600,000 Data collection (salaries / travel / equipment) $1,000,000 6,000,000 Modelling (salaries / travel / office support) $600,000 3,600,000 Community workshops (travel, accommodation) $200,000 1,200,000 Data management (salary / computer facilities) $250,000 1,500,000 Education & Public Outreach Model module for school curriculum 150,000 Film / video production 300,000 Web-page(s) & periodic publications 180,000 Public presentations (travel / accommodation / facilitation) 500,000 Final reports & publications 250,000 Legacy Infrastructure Research lab / offices / storage – new buildings 3,500,000 Endowed academic position in social-ecological systems 12,000,000 Total (not incl. Legacy Infrastructure) 14,800,000

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
Some Case Studies may start before 03/07 depending on how they fit with government and community activities, and with funding. Most field work will be in northern summer, but community consultation will be year-round. ______________________________ Tool Building Using Dose-Response Relationships Clear and defensible information relating landscape disturbance to ecological or social conditions will be required for Arctic decision-makers and communities to make informed decisions about appropriate planning and management structures. Dose-response curves provide a scientific framework that can be used across disciplines to unify change measurement. By examining responses along a continuum of natural and human-induced landscape change, relationships between ecological and social indicators can be integrated in a unified concept. This approach can be used to define thresholds between acceptable and unacceptable conditions before they actually occur. Several types of dose-response curves will be applied here and integrated with landscape modelling tools: • Ecological dose-response curves that relate human and natural disturbance to species, community, or ecosystem response. • Social and economic dose-response curves that relate changes in social and economic well-being to landscape change. • Trade-off curves that relate ecological response to social and economic value. • Welfare or social preference curves that compare preferences for different outcomes within and between communities and document the heterogeneity in preferences.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Mr Fritz Mueller
91780 Alaska Highway


Whitehorse, Yukon
Y1A 5B7
Canada

Tel: 867-393-6898
Mobile: no
Fax: 867-393-7970
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation