Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Future Polar Human Activities in a changing global and regional setting  (Future Polar Human Activities, FuPoHA)

Outline
Living conditions in the Earth's polar regions are harsh; the most northern (and southern) distribution limits of human civilisation can be found there. Only by complete adaptation to the extreme conditions have human populations been able to survive. Fringe populations like the polar communities are sensitive to changing conditions in general and to climate change in particular. The same holds for key economic activities in the polar regions such as fisheries, marine transport and tourism, in which also many non-polar communities are involved.Evidence for global climate change is overwhelming and still mounting, and the rate of change in the polar regions is among the highest in the world. Besides by climate change, polar communities are being affected by other global and more regional changes, such as ozone depletion, air pollution, and technological advancements in mobility and other fields. Such changes will undoubtedly alter the lives and means of living in the polar regions. Some traditional (ice-based) activities and cultures will be lost at the expense of new (land or sea-based) activities. It is essential for the local communities and the countries involved to be aware of possible changes and their implications, and to get a sense of the most salient uncertainties involved. In the FuPoHa umbrella project we propose to apply the tool of integrated scenario analysis to explore the future of the polar communities. Scenarios are defined as "descriptions of possible futures that reflect different perspectives on past, present, and future developments (Van Notten et al., 2003)." The adjective "integrated" refers to the inclusion of multiple sectors, developments on different temporal and spatial scales in the envisioned scenarios.The main building blocks of the FuPoHa project are scenario development, policy development and assessment, and development of management strategies. Scenarios will consist of developments external to the regional community and decision-makers. This set of scenarios, covering a wide range of possible futures, will act as the terms of reference for evaluating policy options, such as investments in the portfolio of economic activities. Policy options differ from external developments in that they are partially or fully controlled by the local communities. The policy options will be confronted with the scenarios to identify any robust options that do well in all or most of the futures sketched by the scenarios.In the polar regions, many of the resources can be qualified as common pool resources. To foster their sustainable use, coordination and international cooperation are essential. Co-operation has been arranged with the ForSociety ERA-Net, which is proposing a series of foresight studies of regional seas around Europe with the aim of wealth creation through sustainable development of marine resources. The Barents Sea is chosen as an example of a polar sea in a rapidly changing setting. Governance of the sea will be addressed from a system science and transition approach.Van Notten, P., Rotmans, J., van Asselt, M. B. A. and Rothman, D. (2003). “An updated scenario typology.” Futures, 35(423-443.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Theme 2. The studies assess through a stakeholder process possible future developments in the Arctic region and will result in possible policy options.Theme 3. This research explores the possibilities and consequences of human activity in polar regions, with an emphasis on the Arctic.Theme 4. The research builds on the ACIA report by developing future studies of the consequences of human activities such as tourism in polar regions.Theme 6. The proposed studies will give insight in the effects of global change on human activities in the polar regions

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
This project is a joint activity the Norwegian Research Council and Ocean Futures in Norway. Discussions are ongoing with other institutes such as the Arctic Centre of the University of Lapland and the UK Marine Foresight Panel (John Griffiths) for participation.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Svalbard, Greenland, Barents Sea rim countries. Antarctic Peninsula, possibly Ross Sea area

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: Summer 2007 and 2008            
Antarctic: Austral summer 2007/08            

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Transport to and from the research sites (and places for scenario workshops) in the Arctic and Antarctic.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
No infrastructure is envisaged

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
Own national polar operator
Military support
Own support
Other sources of support

Logistics will need to be arranged through the national operator and through the national funding agencies. At this stage it is not feasible to identify the required specifically at a national level. This will be addressed in the appropriate proposals, and will be optimised and shared with other research projects.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Currently, it has been endorsed by the Dutch National IPY committee. Endorsement will in due time also by the national IPY Committees of partner countries and the relevant international organisations

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New

The project partly builds on existing research in the Antarctic (tourism) and is partly a new activity of the ForSociety ERA-Net and the EuroPOLAR Network of Excellence

How will the project be organised and managed?
It is proposed that the project will be co-ordinated at an international level. While the subprojects will be operated at a national level and will include international participation.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Education: it is envisaged to include universities where and when possible (for instance Univ. Centre Svalbard and Arctic centre in Finland, University Maastricht, Open University Heerlen) Outreach: Focus will be placed on outreach to local Inuit communities in the Arctic region as they will also be involved in the scenario studies. Furthermore decision-makers will be targeted in co-operation with the IPY EOC-subcommittee and the ForSociety ERA-Net. Moreover, where possible an Education and Outreach toolkit will be used by the partners of the project.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
In general data will be open to the public after finalising the project. The individual partners will manage data of the sub-projects, but these data will also be available to all other partners. Data will be published on the web site of the project.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Each sub-project will need to seek funding by the national programmes. This will need to go trough the designated proposal routines.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
At this stage, we are still presenting the project to interested parties and are in the process of making a larger consortium in which especially Russian partners should be involved.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Prof  Jan H. Stel
Universiteit Maastricht
P.O. Box 616
Maastricht
6200 MD
Netherlands

Tel: x 31 43 388 3943
Mobile: no
Fax: +31-43-3884916
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation