Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Canada #33: Synchrony in circumpolar lemming and vole cycles: what are the patterns?  (Lemming cycles)

Outline
This project will address the scientific question: what is the scale of synchrony among independent small rodent populations in the circumpolar arctic? Lemming and vole populations form the backbone of the terrestrial food web of the arctic. Populations of these small rodents fluctuate cyclically in many arctic locations, reaching peaks every 3-4 years. These cycles are reflected in cyclic abundance of specialist predators such as arctic fox, snowy owls, jaegers, and weasels. These predators in turn affect goose production when lemmings decline. While many local studies have been carried out on these polar rodents, there have been few attempts to make quantitative regional surveys to investigate synchrony among independent populations. Early questionnaire analyses indicated some regional synchrony within North America, but some areas have always been anomalous (Krebs et al. 2002). There has been little attempt to integrate the Siberian and Russian data on rodent cycles with those of North America. In particular we do not know how much synchrony occurs between continents or within continents, and this information will affect how predators like snowy owls can operate within these polar ecosystems. If synchrony is patchy, predators can take advantage of high populations by extensive movements. The International Polar Year 2007-8 provides an opportunity to design and apply a standardized protocol for the global assessment and mapping of lemming and vole densities across the arctic. This mapping must be carried out on a relatively fine scale with approximately 100-200 km between sites, and must include island as well as mainland sites. Trapping and indirect census techniques have been worked out such that a single site can be analyzed in 2-3 days by 2 people. Much of this work could be coordinated with other studies planned for the International Polar Year. The Swedish Tundra Northwest Expedition of 1999 is a good general model for this type of cooperation (Krebs et al. 2003). In the western hemisphere it would be desirable to map rodent abundance on the Alaskan north slope, the Yukon north slope (including Herschel Island), the Mackenzie delta islands and areas to the east, the central arctic coast, the southern Canadian arctic archipelago, Ungava, and Greenland. Documenting the geographical pattern of synchrony is crucial evidence for understanding which factors drive whatever synchrony exists. Weather events and movements of specialist predators are the two most likely agents. The project will document local predator abundance at sample sites, and establish remote temperature recording devices to monitor the ground-level and aerial temperature regimes during the northern winter separating the two summer sampling periods. We are exploring the potential of spring, snowmobile surveys for predator abundance with local communities. Krebs C. J. et al.. Terrestrial trophic-dynamics in the Canadian arctic. Canadian Journal of Zoology 81: 827-843. Krebs C. J. et al.. 2002. Synchrony in lemming and vole populations in the Canadian arctic. Canadian Journal of Zoology 80: 1323-1333.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The project aims to clarify the Current State of northern arctic terrestrial food webs. The geographical and temporal patterns in abundance of small mammals are key to food web dynamics, but have not been well documented. Describing the current state will provide substantial insights into processes of Change in these systems, particularly the role of weather events (such as ground ice following rain or thawing) associated with climate change. The work also helps understand Linkages between polar and temperate regions in that many of the predators are migratory birds, and their numerical responses to arctic small mammal irruptions influence trophic dynamics in temperate systems.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
We aim to include field sampling in at least five countries: Canada, USA, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Greenland and Russia. The confirmed team includes Canadians (Charles Krebs; Elizabeth Hofer; Scott Gilbert; Alice Kenney; Don Reid, Gilles Gauthier, Suzanne Carriere), and Scandinavians (Kjell Danell, Anders Angerbjorn, Nigel Yoccoz, Rolf Ims, Heikki Henttonen, Harald Steen). Most have worked together on similar studies in the recent past (see references above). We are currently working to include American and French researchers who have previously worked in Alaska and Greenland respectively.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The field work will take place at many arctic tundra sites, principally in western North America (Alaska and Yukon north slope; central Canadian arctic & archipelago), and in Scandinavia. We hope to engage partner teams who could sample Greenland, Siberia and the Ungava peninsula of Quebec.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 06/07 – 08/07      06/08 – 08/08      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
The field work will require substantial helicopter and fixed-wing aircraft time to move field crews and their mobile camps around. Crews would also ideally use established northern research bases for expediting, storage and accommodation when coming and going from the field. There would ideally be a regional communication centre for each Team to expedite helicopter flights. This would happen in both northern summers. We are exploring the potential of spring, snowmobile surveys for predator abundance, with local communities. The project would benefit from sharing flight time with other projects if the temporal and spatial sampling regimes for projects could mesh tightly.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
here will be no legacy of physical infrastructure. Sample sites will be geo-referenced and marked for future monitoring, and a digital photographic record will be created for each site.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own national polar operator
Another national polar operator
National agency
Commercial operator
Other sources of support

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
This pre-proposal has been reviewed and is being submitted by the Canadian Steering Committee (CSC). Ongoing discussions will integrate this pre-proposal into a larger network of related national and international initiatives. The CSC has initially sorted this pre-proposal into: Ecosystems Terrestrial Processes

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project is a collaborative effort of a number of academic researchers, each of whom is interested in arctic community dynamics, and has direct experience with field work in each region to be sampled. The full international project is based on seven Teams, each of two people, sampling 8-10 sites separated by 100-200 km, in each of 7 Regions (Alaska; western Canadian mainland arctic; central Canadian mainland and archipelago; Ungava; east coast Greenland; Scandinavia; eastern Siberia). The Principal Investigator will convene a Committee with representation from each Regional Team (e.g., the leader of a Regional Team). The Committee will deal with shared concerns such as sampling design, funding, training protocols and data management. Regional Team leaders will then be responsible for organizing the logistics, field work and reporting from their area.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Each Regional Team will engage with the nearest community(ies) to the area sampled (e.g., through Hunter and Trapper Associations), prior to field work, to talk about the project, solicit input, and recruit and train field assistants. We will develop digital communications materials, such as web-based presentations and DVDs, explaining the project and its ecological rationale, providing means for input of current field based observations from community members, and presenting results.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
The Project Committee will develop standard databases, and data collection protocols for use by all Regional Teams. These will be designed in collaboration with the organization IPY chooses as a data repository, and with national data depositories for arctic work, so that the data can be readily integrated into these systems. The Project will also maintain a web-page with data storage, downloading and presentation options.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
The project will require funding from whatever national or international bodies are chosen to administer IPY funds. The Project Committee will solicit funds or assistance in kind from the European Union, national scientific research bodies (e.g. Canadian NSERC and Polar Continental Shelf Project), other government agencies (e.g., Parks Canada, territorial bodies). The annual budget for each Regional Team is estimated at: community liaison and training ($5k); field access ($7k); chartered helicopter and fixed-wing aircraft time for field transit sampling 8 – 10 sites (60 hours @ $1k/hr = $60k); salaries for hired staff ($10k); equipment including traps, weather recording and camping equipment ($5k); administration including database administration , webpage and publication ($1k). Total international cost (7 Regional Teams) per annum is $616,000, and for the 2 years $1,232,000. None is secured at present.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
We are keen to collaborate with any other Project that: (i) is proposing to do similar work with small rodents, so as to broaden the international scope; (ii) has a sampling regime that requires visiting many different, quite widely separated, sites, whereby we could share helicopter(s).

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Charles Krebs
Department of Zoology
6270 University Boulevard
Vancouver, British Columbia
V6T 1Z4
Canada

Tel: (604) 828-1647
Mobile: no
Fax: (604) 822-2416
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation