Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Canada #31: Northern Regional impacts and Sensitivity to Climate Change  (Northern RiSCC)

Outline
Observations over the 20th century and numerical simulations of future climate trends have drawn attention to the extreme vulnerability of northern ecosystems to global change. The greatest changes in climate over the last few decades have taken place in the polar regions, but with large variations between different sectors. The western Canadian Arctic has warmed substantially while the eastern Arctic has shown little change or even cooling. Despite variance in predictions among global circulation models, all converge on the central conclusion that future climate change will occur earliest and most intensely at high northern latitudes. This is likely to have substantial, but as yet poorly understood impacts on north polar ecosystems. Northern RiSCC will bring together Canada's leading researchers in the terrestrial/freshwater sciences and collaborators from many of the IPY nations to examine how northern ecosystems will respond to future climate change. The scientific approach will be a nested design of complementary time and space scales: 1) paleo-environmental studies to establish Holocene records and thus a historical context for interpreting modern-day variability; 2) observations and experiments at land-based stations (including lake monitoring sites) to investigate coupling and feedback processes. Emphasis will be on the influence of freeze-thaw cycles as critical thresholds for water supply, energy transfer, solute and sediment mobilization and other terrestrial and freshwater processes. 3) coastal transects using the Canadian research icebreaker CCGS Amundsen and aircraft-based logistics to define climate-related gradients, to elucidate mechanisms via onboard experiments and measurements, and to ground-truth satellite data including MERIS and RADARSAT-2. The research transect region has been selected to encompass the broadest range of ecozones in Northern Canada, from boreal forest to extreme polar desert (53 to 83 oN), and to use this striking gradient of climates, from a mean annual temperature of –2 oC at the southern end of Hudson Bay to –20 oC at Ward Hunt Island, northern Ellesmere as an approach to elucidate climate impacts on ecosystem coupling processes and feedbacks throughout the circumpolar Arctic region. The program will interface with other IPY initiatives that interact via the network ArcticNet, specifically CANCO, CANTEX and Arctic WOLVES. Unlike these latter programs , however, Northern RiSCC will place special emphasis on comparisons with analogous measurements in Antarctica in the SCAR program RiSCC (Regional sensitivity to climate change in Antarctic limnetic and terrestrial ecosystems; see their website at website at www.riscc.aq).

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This project will deliver a novel, integrated synthesis of terrestrial ecosystems (including lakes) in the eastern Arctic within the context of climate change in the past, present and future (IPY Themes Status and Change) . The transect approach combined with the breadth of research expertise offers an extraordinary opportunity to examine climate-related effects and impacts, and will lead to new insights as well as practical recommendations applicable throughout the circumpolar Arctic. This will especially allow close comparisons with researchers working in the south polar region through the sister Antarctic program RiSCC. The use of novel technologies (RADARSAT 2 and MERIS remote sensing data) and the Amundsen icebreaker facility will open up New Frontiers.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Expressions of interest from Antarctic colleagues working in USA, Netherlands, Denmark, Italy, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Belgium and Spain. The latter two countries have submitted parallel program proposals to their national funding agencies.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The work will be at coastal sites in the eastern Canadian Arctic, from lat 53N (James Bay) to lat. 83N (Ward Hunt Island). In 2008 a full transect cruise on the CCGS Amundsen is planned, with researchers from Antarctic as well as Arctic programs to facilitate a bipolar transfer of expertise, protocols and knowledge. This will be combined with aircraft based logistics in this and the other years.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 06/07 – 09/07       06/08 – 09/08      06/09 – 09/09 (post IPY)
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
PCSP aircraft support. 6 weeks of CCGS Amundsen ship time in 2008; new laboratory facilities where possible

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Ramp up period will produce terrestrial and freshwater observing systems (e.g., moored instrument packages in lakes) that will continue operating for long term records of environmental change. Long term laboratory facilities may be possible at some sites.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own national polar operator
National agency

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Has been well received and endorsed by the Antarctic RiSCC program for bipolar collaboration, and now included in their science plan. This pre-proposal has been reviewed and is being submitted by the Canadian Steering Committee (CSC). Ongoing discussions will integrate this pre-proposal into a larger network of related national and international initiatives. The CSC has initially sorted this pre-proposal into: Ecosystems Terrestrial Processes

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Expansion

This program builds on the logistic framework and resources of ArcticNet, with new elements such as the 2008 ArcticNet cruise which cannot be funded directly by ArcticNet.

How will the project be organised and managed?
Northern RiSCC will be coordinated through the management infrastructure of Theme 2 ArcticNet, with the science coordinator of that theme (Dr. Milla Rautio) also taking responsibility for the day-to-day coordination of this IPY program. She will report to Vincent and Henry, and a steering committee of project leaders will ensure the timely setting, execution and completion of science activities.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
This will primarily be through the considerable resources of ArcticNet including 'Schools on Board', web-based materials, regular media contact and our usual consultation and participation with northern communities.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Data will be collected and archived in the ArcticNet database system, with public access after validation.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Estimated budget (2007-9): 3.5 M$ Funding to PIs: 20 PIs x 50K each = 1M$ (excluding foreign collaborators) Ship logistics = 2 months (incl helo) = 2M$ Helo and fixed wing logistics = 0.5M$ NSERC Discovery Grants; ArcticNet NCE; FQRNT, PCSP; and all other available agencies. An LOI has been sent to CFCAS for the paleo-component called PROCEAN: Paleo and recent observations of climate in an eastern Canadian network; PIs = Scott Lamoureaux (Queens) & Grant Ingram (UBC). In addition, a large amount of in-kind support will be sought; e.g. station and logistics at Kuujjuarapik from Centre d'Études Nordiques.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
IPY provides an unprecedented opportunity for this comparison between terrestrial and limnetic environments in the north and south polar regions, and of their sensitivity and responses to environmental change.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Warwick Vincent
Dépt de biologie
Université Laval
Sainte-Foy, QC
G1K 7P4
Canada

Tel: 1-418-656-5644
Mobile: no
Fax: 1-418-656-2043
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation