Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

The Study of Short-Term Sea Ice Predictability in Greenland Waters: Sea ice forecast research in support of International Ice Chart Working Group (IICWG) requirements  (IICWG – Sea Ice Forecast Research)

Outline
The objective of the proposed IPY activity is to: 1) find the optimal combination of sea ice model, assimilation scheme, assimilation data etc. for Greenland, 2) extend the selected model to cover all Greenland waters and to implement suitable assimilation techniques to improve forecast skill. The project will focus on assimilation of satellite derived sea ice data such as ice drift, ice concentration and ice type/thickness. The activities will have elements of basic research such as understanding the interaction mechanisms between sea ice, ocean and atmosphere and applied research for improving sea ice forecast in Greenland waters. The Danish Meteorological Institute is responsible for sea ice mapping around Greenland for the safety of navigation. The institute is operationally running a sea ice forecast model for southern Greenland. Sea ice in Greenland waters is diverse with respect to both ice types and concentration. Most Arctic ice types and ice regimes e.g. ice edge and inner pack ice is represented there. It should therefore be possible to extrapolate the use of algorithms developed for Greenlandic sea ice to other parts of the Arctic. Greenland is hence a suitable study region for a more general purpose. Coupled ice ocean models describing a complete set of large scale sea ice parameters i.e. thickness, deformation, concentration, extent, thermodynamic state and drift are improved by satellite data assimilation [e.g. Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research 108(C6), 3170, doi: 10.1029/2001JC001041, 2003]. This proposed IPY activity is a specification of the Danish contribution to ‘The study of Short-Term Arctic Sea Ice Predictability: Sea ice forecast research in support of International Ice Chart Working Group requirements’. It will further collaborate with other proposed IPY activities such as CAMPARI concentrating on data collection and development of satellite measurement techniques.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
If successful, this project would result in an accurate near-real-time sea ice forecasting system (predictions) for Greenland waters that would support the needs of commerce and transportation in Greenland, as well as the people living in Greenland (Theme 2). An assimilation system with optimal use of ice observations in a coupled ice ocean model can also be an efficient tool for climate monitoring in polar areas. It would also likely lead to improvements in northern hemisphere weather forecasts such as DMI-HIRLAM, because sea ice is an important, but poorly specified boundary condition in these models. The resulting datasets would support studies of polar-global linkages (Themes 1 and 3).

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
This letter is specifying the Danish contribution to the expression of intent: ‘The Study of Short-Term Arctic Sea Ice Predictability: Sea ice forecast research in support of International Ice Chart Working Group (IICWG) requirements’ submitted on behalf of IICWG [a recognized technical advisory group to the WMO JCOMM Expert Team on Sea Ice (ETSI)]. IICWG will be used as a platform for collaboration among the eight countries participating in this science activity.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The goal of the system is to develop sea-ice forecast capabilities in Greenland waters. No specific fieldwork is proposed to support this activity. Rather we propose to leverage off of the abundant observations planned for the IPY e.g. CAMPARI.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Broad bandwidth data communications, rapid data access, and appropriate computing facilities will be required. This activity could be located at DMI to leverage existing resources and infrastructure.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
It will leave an operational forecast system that will support international interests in “safety at sea”, commerce, and transportation. It will lead to advances in our sea ice data assimilation knowledge and ability to forecast sea ice. It will leave a network of expertise for future projects.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
National agency

An international effort such as this would most benefit from individual national contributions combined with international funding that would bring together an international team of researchers to address these issues.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
This proposal has been “endorsed” and is being submitted as a specification of Danish activities in the International Ice Chart Working Group (IICWG) IPY expression of intent.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New

This is a new project. That would benefit from start-up during the IPY.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The program sponsors would need to be involved in the management of national Danish program. Broader oversight and international coordination for the project would best be accomplished through a science steering committee chaired by the co-chairmen of the International Ice Chart Working Group (IICWG).

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The sea ice products will be provided to the public in near-real-time via the existing web pages. In addition, the products will be made available to customers via the European Space Agency supported PolarView program interface.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
DMI has an existing production and dissemination and archiving of sea ice products such as these.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
It is proposed that the programme is sponsored by Danish research funds. However, international funding from the IPY project office would allow true international collaboration and would significantly enhance the quality and effectiveness of this effort.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
The full letter from the co-chairmen of the IICWG to the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) stating the collective unmet needs of the international organizations charged with provide sea ice forecasts to the public is available at: http://nsidc.org/noaa/iicwg/GEO_DATA_Utilization_060904.doc It is important to reiterate, products from this system will be made available to the broader community in near-real-time, and in that way should support the broader IPY effort.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Rasmus Tonboe
Lyngbyvej 100
Copenhagen Ø
2100
Denmark

Tel: +45 39 15 73 49
Mobile: n/a
Fax: +45 39 15 73 00
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation