Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Social Vulnerability to Climate Change in Arctic western North America and eastern Russia  (SoVaCC)

Outline
This project proposes to assess ongoing and projected climate change impacts on marine and river coastal communities in a focus region consisting of Alaska, northwestern Canada, and far eastern Russia, and to work with the communities to develop response plans. To accomplish this overarching objective the project is organized around eight major sub-components. The thematic sub-components, with objectives and linkages, are grouped into three broad themes: climatic, climatic impacts on ocean, hydrology and ecosystems, and human/societal considerations. Specific sub-components are as follows: 1. Assessment of trends and patterns in storminess and atmospheric circulation for the focus region and (in less detail) the circum arctic using observed data from weather stations. 2. Assessment of trends and patterns in storminess and atmospheric circulation for the focus region and (in less detail) the circum arctic using reanalysis data. (A reanalysis is a meteorological forecast model run using observational data) 3. Examine AOGCM (atmosphere-ocean general circulation models) prediction scenario data to determine trajectories in climatic regimes and oceanographic response to predicted changes in sea-ice regime, including ocean swell and tides. 4. Impact of changing climate on coastal wave energy in the focus region. 5. Impact of changing climate on watershed hydrology 6. Impact of changing climate on ecosystems 7. With reference to the existing and anticipated changes identified in sub-components 4-6 above, determine the costs to the communities in terms of infrastructure damage, economic interference, and loss of social/cultural identity. 8. Considering the impacts identified in sub-component 7 above with reference to future trends identified in 3 above, work with communities to the extent possible to plan response strategies. Climate change issues have the potential to burden regions with significant costs if arising problems are left until crisis situations develop. Costs will come, in areas directly affected, from an erosion of economic base and the diversion of community attention to the addressing immediate problems, and for larger jurisdictions, from the expenditure of potentially significant resources to rescue areas from impending crises. Using results obtained from this project, costs incurred in the short-term with planning guided by information can defray long-term crisis spending. This project inherits an existing legacy concerning coastal processes, especially that stewarded by the Arctic Coastal Dynamics Project. Results from all relevant projects will be brought to bear and built upon. This proposal is currently under development as a US Federal Initiative and team members have not been finalized at this time.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Theme 1: Parameters such as storminess and circulation are not usually represented in climate discussions; calculating these parameters will improve understanding of climatic variability. Theme 2: Consideration of the human element in climate change discussions, including full range of potential impacts and consideration of mitigation strategies, is only beginning to emerge in a coordinated fashion. It is hoped that this project will establish a template for moving from primary observations through to response plans. Observational theme 2: Datasets of derived results (e.g. coastal storminess or wave energy) represent new sources of insight into modern and recent climate.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
This US led project will collaborate with data collection agencies, research groups, regional jurisdictions and communities in Alaska, Canada and Russia.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Site visits to specific communities in Alaska, Canada (Yukon Territory, Northwest Territory) and Russia (East Siberia, Chukotka) will be required and will be coordinated with the communities and jurisdictions involved. A physical science field component is not planned.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
None

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
No – this project will seek to utilize existing data and model projection results and will not be establishing observatories.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

No field logistics. Community work will involve small operator flights and lodging expenses that do not require a full logistics provider and which will be covered as regular items in proposal budgets.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Project has been submitted but not officially endorsed at the US or international levels.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New

Although this proposal is a new project, it will seek to utilize results from other projects or provide them additional funding to continue their work to support this proposal. There are a variety of existing projects currently investigating storminess issues, Alaskan hydrology, Siberian communities, Siberian and Alaskan ecosystems, amongst others, that can be incorporated.

How will the project be organised and managed?
Subcomponent leaders, drawn from faculty and research staff at IARC and the University of Alaska (UA) system, will be identified and assembled to form a project steering committee that will develop a project implementation and objectives plan. Full proposals from each sub-component will then be developed. A 4-5 year time frame is anticipated, a reflection of the general logical progression the project has. Project operations will be run by an office established in the IARC. Budgets will be set up and managed using the existing financial management infrastructure at IARC. Oversight committees will help guide project execution.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
This is a large project that will involve many units in the Univesity of Alaska system; there will be many opportunities for students, ranging from senior undergraduate to doctoral level and post-doc. Students from the communities will be invited to participate in project aspects.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Assembly of results from trends and impacts analyses conducted by the sub-component groups will be coordinated by a central project office (at IARC). From there they will be posted on a project web site and submitted to the major US arctic data center (National Snow and Ice Data Center – NSIDC).

How is it proposed to fund the project?
National funding – US Federal Initiative.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
This project is in early stages of development. While potential sub-component leaders have been tentatively identified, formal requests for participation have not been fielded. As such, other project members will not be listed at this time.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Prof  David E. Atkinson
Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Fairbanks
99775
USA

Tel: +1.907.474.1126
Mobile: no
Fax: +1.907.474.2643
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation