Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Advances in Satellite Products and Their Use in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction  (SATDAS – Satellite Data Assimilation)

Outline
Two important findings of our recent work on the development of a satellite-derived polar winds product and the use of that product in numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems were that (1) spatially comprehensive observations of the atmosphere in the data-sparse polar regions significantly and positively impact high latitude numerical weather predictions, and (2) errors in model forecasts for the high latitudes often propagate to the midlatitudes, implying that improvements to high latitude forecasts will result in better mid-latitude forecasts. These findings provide the motivation to improve our ability to measure the state of the polar regions with satellites and to expand the use of these data in NWP systems. We propose to do exactly that through * Advances in Satellite Retrieval Science – New products will be developed and current products will be improved, including polar tropospheric winds, sea surface winds, cloud properties, sea surface temperature, ice surface temperature, snow/ice albedo, surface infrared emissivity, atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles, polar stratospheric clouds, and surface radiative fluxes. Current and future sensors will be used such as MODIS, AIRS, VIIRS, CrIS, AVHRR, and QuikSCAT. * Data Assimilation – Model impact studies will be conducted and data assimilation methods will be developed at NWP centers in the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Japan. The investigators will explore how to improve the use of atmospheric sounder radiances over snow/ice, how to utilize satellite-derived ice surface temperature, radiative transfer models for cloudy radiance assimilation, error characteristics of the satellite products. * Satellite Product Validation - Data from existing and proposed atmospheric and marine observatories and from IPY field experiments (including ship and aircraft) will be used to validate satellite-derived quantities. * Retrospective Analyses – Products from new sensors will be combined with historical data to create a 25+ year dataset for climate studies. Potential studies include cloud feedbacks and the atmospheric heat budgets of both polar regions. The project will result in operational weather forecast systems that are better able to predict weather at high latitudes and globally, and new satellite-derived products for monitoring the current and past state of the polar regions, particularly the atmosphere and parameters that affect the surface radiation budget. The satellite products will support IPY activities in near real-time, while the improved weather forecast systems will benefit the public for years to come.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This project will generate new and improved satellite products and methods for using these products in numerical weather prediction systems, allowing us to better monitor the current state of the polar environment and predict the near-term future state. The use of satellite data in global models will provide the framework for investigating polar-global linkages and interaction, as we have demonstrated with our polar winds product. Combining new and improved satellite products with existing products that extend back to the early 1980s will yield a dataset that can be used to examine change in the polar regions over the last two and a half decades.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
This project will involve numerical weather prediction centers in the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Japan. It is closely link to THORPEX IPY work (two of the investigators of this project are part of THORPEX). Additionally, the satellite validation aspect of the project will require collaboration with scientists at atmospheric observatories in the U.S., Canada, and Russia, and with scientists participating in field experiments.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
No fieldwork is proposed to support this activity. Instead, we will work with data collected by others at atmospheric observatories, on ships, and by aircraft. This is a pan-polar study, Arctic and Antarctic.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
The primary “facilities” needed by the project are satellite systems, numerical models, and computer resources. No new facilities or logistic support are being proposed. The project will require data collected by other IPY investigators, as described above.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The project legacy will be: (1) operational weather forecast systems that are better able to predict weather at high latitudes and globally, (2) new satellite-derived products for monitoring the current and past state of the polar regions, particularly the atmosphere and parameters that affect the surface radiation budget.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
National agency

An international effort such as this would most benefit from individual national contributions combined with international funding that would bring together an international team of researchers to address these issues.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
This project has been submitted to the U.S. National Committee to the IPY for review. It is one of a group of proposals that was coordinated by NOAA.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Expansion

This is a new proposal, but one that overlaps to some degree with other IPY proposals. The data assimilation effort is also an important component in THORPEX (see the EoI from Z. Toth). Satellite dataset integration may also be viewed as part of one or more data management EoIs (e.g., Florence Fetterer’s EoI). The satellite retrieval science is an extension of planned activities that are independent of IPY, e.g., risk reduction efforts for the upcoming National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS). Without the IPY impetus, however, concerted efforts in satellite product development and data assimilation will not be possible.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The program will be managed by co-investigators from the agencies/institutions involved. We do not anticipate the need for a science steering committee. We expect to obtain guidance from the appropriate international organizations, particularly THORPEX and WCRP programs such as GEWEX and CliC.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
This project will support students and young scientists interested in satellite remote sensing and data assimilation. Much of the activity will take place in academic institutions and will therefore involve students at the undergraduate and graduate levels. Web-based data visualization and distribution tools (such as Live Access Server) will be used for disseminating results to the broad community.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Validated satellite products will be made available via the web (see for example, http://stratus.ssec.wisc.edu, which provides other polar satellite products) in near real-time. They will be archived at the appropriate national data center, e.g., National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and the National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC). Forecast products will be available to the public through the NWP centers. The IOOS and GOOS standards for data management will be considered.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
It is proposed that individual national research sponsors provide funding for their participation in the program. We anticipate that the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA will support the U.S. activities, with weather prediction centers in other countries supporting their own participation.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
It is imperative that new satellite systems expected to be in place during the IPY, particularly the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP), become a fundamental component of the integrated observing system for the polar regions. This is not automatic, but rather will require a concerted effort. Additionally, it is important to reiterate that this project builds on the collaborations we have forged with NWP centers in demonstrating the importance of polar satellite data in global weather prediction.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Jeffrey Key
1225 West Dayton Street
Madison, WI
53706
USA

Tel: 608-263-2605
Mobile: no
Fax: 608-262-5974
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation