Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Framework for coupled models of the Antarctic climate system including terrestrial ice, oceans, sea ice and atmosphere.  (FRANSYS – Framework for Antarctic System Simulation)

Outline
We seek to develop a framework for modelling the coupled evolution of the Antarctic regional system. This aim will be achieved primarily by providing an international forum to discuss aspects of the modelling strategy. Tasks will include creation of coupling protocols, data formats, benchmarks for new models and identifying key data requirements. Within this umbrella, applications will be made to national funders to develop particular model components and project activities. A major outcome will be the development of a suite of community models of the Antarctic, including terrestrial ice, coastal oceans and meso-scale atmosphere with the potential for coupling between these sub-systems. We will seek to advance the discipline in four main areas. First, improve the physical representation of individual components of the system. Examples include the incorporation of realistic models of ice streams in large-scale ice-sheet models; the representation of the grounding-line motion; water-mass fronts in ocean models; and the inclusion of realistic sea-ice physics. We propose a series of collaborations (workshops, model benchmarking and staff exchanges) to focus effort in these areas. Second, it is becoming increasingly clear that the whole system is far more tightly coupled than previously thought. A good example is the very recent realisation that oceanic change is producing dramatic thinning deep in the interior of the ice sheet. The practical problems of coupling very different types of model for terrestrial ice, ocean, sea ice and atmosphere are largely technical in nature but would benefit enormously from the establishment of international protocols. Third, the data coverage for the model boundary conditions is very patchy in Antarctica. We therefore intend, as a community, to identify the most important data gaps and promote targeted funding applications to fill these gaps. Examples include the provision of data on subglacial bedrock topography for large areas of East Antarctica and the Amundsen Embayment, as well as constraints on the water mass characteristics of the Amundsen Sea. Finally, we will identify the types of data needed to validate our coupled models. It is clear that the Antarctic system exhibits important dynamics at a whole range of time scales. Different types of data are therefore needed to test these different aspects of the evolution of the coupled system. In some cases the appropriate large-scale data bases (e.g., satellite-based measurements of the ice surface) already exist, while in others (e.g., subglacial environment) the data available are wholly inadequate to test models.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This project is explicitly inter-disciplinary and will produce the tools necessary for us to model (and therefore hopefully both understand and predict) the coupled evolution of Antarctic climate (in the broadest definition). We will therefore address Theme 4 directly. In addition, such tools are a necessary precursor to our ability to understand the links between Antarctica and the rest of the globe (Theme 3) and will further our understanding of the processes responsible for past and future changes in and around Antarctica (Theme 2).

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Expertise in modelling various components of the Antarctic system (ice sheets, streams and shelves; coastal waters; atmosphere; and sea ice) is widely distributed internationally (e.g., USA, UK, Netherlands, France, Japan, Germany, Belgium and Australia). Our project aims to provide a focus, as well as access for researchers from other countries.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
No field work explicitly involved.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
None directly related to field activity.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The project aims to develop a modelling framework with shared data and programming protocols, as well as model benchmarks, which will serve the scientific community in years to come. In addition, it will serve the needs of global climate modellers who wish to include ice sheet dynamics in their simulations.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
National agency
Own support
Other sources of support

Further details – Not strictly relevant, see items 1.3 and 3.5 for further information.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) have indorsed a related model-based programme Antarctic Climate Evolution (ACE), which would benefit enormously from the resources to be developed in this project. The emphasis of ACE is on past climate evolution on geological timescales.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New

The project relates to a number of programmes at individual research institutions; however, the only international programme that it relates to is SCAR’s Antarctic Climate Evolution project (see 2.6). The activity also relates to on-going international efforts to establish protocols for Earth system models (PRISM and ESMF).

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be managed from Bristol. The four streams outlined in 1.3 will each have an assigned leader and small management group. An overall management group will be established comprising these stream managers and representatives of allied IPY projects (e.g., related ASEP proposals). It will be vitally important to have regular progress meetings, especially on the more technical objectives. We will endeavour to make full use of new technologies such as virtual conferencing and shared software management repositories. Our full proposal will outline how the individual objectives will map into specific funding proposals from the groups identified in 4.2.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
We will engage in existing outreach initiatives from Bristol University, which has strong links with BBC natural history centre (Bristol) and will aim to gain media coverage of our work. A website will be central to the project and facilitate exchange both between project members and with the wider community.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Initially we intend to distribute model initialization and validation data by means of a live-access server which we will organize and maintain. In later stages of the project we plan that our data will moved to national data repositories.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
The key activities within this framework are appropriate for funding via national funding organisations. The overall role of this project is to provide co-ordination for these activities. The small amounts of funding involved could be obtained from either national funders or international research organizations such as the World University Network or SCAR.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
The project is important to the overall aims of IPY because it will allow integration of the field-based IPY activities with the modelling community (providing a mechanism for prioritizing data requirements). In addition, it will also provide the necessary theoretical context for the quantum advances in our ability to understand and predict polar processes that is the aim of the IPY. In addition, this proposal has a bi-polar aspect in that progress made in modelling the Antarctic climate system can only aid advances in our understanding of the Arctic and, in particular, the Greenland ice sheet.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Antony Payne
School of Geographical Sciences
University Road
University of Bristol
BS8 1SS
UK

Tel: +44 117 954 5972
Mobile: no
Fax: +44 117 928 7878
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation