Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Canada #208: Socioeconomic determinants of land use-land cover change (LULCC) in the declining single-industry northern resource communities and their environs in the Russian Far Eastern North and western sector of the Canadian North during the structural economic crisis of the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.  (Socioeconomic factors of LUCC, Canada/Russia, 1987-2007s)

Outline
Overall purpose: Remotely sensed detection, spatiotemporal monitoring and modelling of LULCC and landscape dynamics in declining northern single-industry communities and their environs in 1987-2007 based on the study of socioeconomic factors of LULCC. The problem of declining communities of single industry is crucial for the Circumpolar Region and it is likely to persist, especially in Canada and Russia. However, there is still not enough understanding of how the interruption of industrial activities and departure of population impacted LULC patterns in the settlements’ immediate environs, nor it is known what efforts should be implemented to make the decline ‘sustainable’. Based on elaborated comparative analysis, the study anticipates obtaining sufficient materials for further development of sustainable strategies for declining former single-industry communities in the two countries. The study focuses on selected settlements in Magadanskaya Oblast' in Russia and Yukon and NWT in Canada. Data collection, production and management: Existing data collection, retrieval and management: satellite imagery (USGS), existing cartographic materials in the study areas. Socioeconomic statistics from the national (Statistics Canada and Goskomstat) and local statistical sources; New data collection and management: 1. Multispectral moderate resolution satellite imagery taken during the IPY. 2.. Ancillary and ground truth data collection in the field. 3.. Field local surveys to obtain missing or non-existing information on social and demographic composition, infrastructure development, household economic status and land use dynamics. 4. Field local surveys of change in socioeconomic conditions, community well-being and spatial structure perceived by residents, including changes in human capitalization, community satisfaction and coping strategies. Analysis and anticipated results: Detection and spatiotemporal monitoring of the land cover change within the area of influence of declining “single-industry” settlements using classified multiseasonal satellite (tentatively Landsat TM and ETM+) imagery (1987-(1997)-2007), including imagery taken during the IPY; Analysis of the LULCC impact on landscapes (transformation, fragmentation, biodiversity); Assessment of the socioeconomic change using specifically designed methodology (community well-being and change assessment index) based on the experience of the previous ‘impact studies’ in the Canadian and Russian Arctic; Analysis of planning history and major community planning activities as related to the establishment, spatial development and deterioration of the resource settlements in the study areas; Determination of socioeconomic factors of land cover/land use change and planning practices impacted LULCC; Analysis of common and distinct patterns of LULCC in communities with the defined types of planning history and current socioeconomic conditions. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the existing planning strategies and coping experiences in deteriorating Canadian and Russian northern communities. Modeling LULCC in the nearest future (until 2025) based on selected scenarios of the socioeconomic change, planning practices and communities typology. Modeling method - the joint Cellular Automata-Markov process.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
1. Detection of the current state and monitoring of LULCC in Russia and Canadian in rapidly changing sectors of the North; 2. Evaluation of socioeconomic changes (human dimension) as factors of LULCC in deteriorating single industry towns; 3.The study explores interrelations between socioeconomic change and dynamics of natural environment. 4.Collection and management of remotely sensed, socioeconomic and other ancillary data from international, Russian and Canadian sources.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The study will be conducted in the Russian and Canadian polar regions (as specified in 2.1) with participation of Canadian and Russian scholars. The study also anticipates the exchange of knowledge and experience between the two sides and aims to elaborate sustainable planning perspectives that could be used in both countries.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Magadanskaya Oblast’ (Susumanskiy Rayon – a site for the federal northern resettlement program), Yukon and Inuvik-Fort Smith regions of NWT.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 06/06 – 08/07            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Satellites (Landsat or similar) Existing stations (for ground truthing) Conventional transportation

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
An international system for regular monitoring of LULCC in the deindustrializing Arctic and Subarctic areas

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own support

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
This pre-proposal has been reviewed and is being submitted by the Canadian Steering Committee (CSC). Ongoing discussions will integrate this pre-proposal into a larger network of related national and international initiatives. The CSC has initially sorted this pre-proposal into: Ecosystems Terrestrial Processes

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New

How will the project be organised and managed?
Through the University if Toronto and a Russian Institution (tentatively the Herzen State Pedagogical University of Russia)

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The project anticipates educational, outreach and communication components. The universities involved will use the results in their work. The project will involve graduate and potentially undergraduate students. Further EOS activities will be negotiated with national and international organizations (e.g. Russian Geographic Society).

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Data collection and management are primary goals. Data collection, production and management: Existing data collection, retrieval and management: satellite imagery (USGS), existing cartographic materials in the study areas. Socioeconomic statistics from the national (Statistics Canada and Goskomstat) and local statistical sources; New data collection and management: 1. Multispectral moderate resolution satellite imagery taken during the IPY. 2.. Ancillary and ground truth data collection in the field. 3.. Field local surveys to obtain missing or non-existing information on social and demographic composition, infrastructure development, household economic status and land use dynamics. 4. Field local surveys of change in socioeconomic conditions, community well-being and spatial structure perceived by residents, including changes in human capitalization, community satisfaction and coping strategies.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
At the moment, the suitable sources of support are uncertain. We plan to submit proposals to national (Canadian) and international funding agencies

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Mr Andrey Petrov
100 St. George Street, Sidney Smith Hall, Rm 5047
Toronto, Ontario
M5S 3G3
Canada

Tel: 416 978 3375
Mobile: no
Fax: 416 946 3886
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation