Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

CANADA #108: Thorpex Arctic Weather and Environmental Prediction Initiative  (TAWEPI)

Outline
Weather and Environmental Prediction (WEP) is one of the most important technological and societal successes of the last century. The positive impact of WEP on health, wealth and economy competitiveness is recognized worldwide. The science of WEP, including its operational applications, has attained a degree of maturity that is unprecedented in the environmental sciences. The benefit of WEP applications in polar regions has somewhat been delayed historically due the high priority of the more dense populated southern regions. It is now time to bring to the Arctic's communities the advantage of WEP in collaboration with the scientific international community. An important component of this proposal is to develop a regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system (10-15km horizontal resolution) over the Arctic in support of the IPY projects, like THORPEX and field measurement campaigns. The proposed model will be a twin of the actual worldwide recognized operational Environment Canada regional GEM model (used for 1-2 day forecasts) but displaced and extended over the Arctic and surrounding regions. The new model is called Polar-GEM. (Contact: Dr. G. Brunet) One inevitable R&D thrust of TAWEPI will be to validate and improve Polar-GEM parameterizations/treatments of unique high latitude processes such as sea ice or flow over glaciers/ice-caps or high latitude clouds. This will demand that Polar-GEM drives finer horizontal scale (1-3km) limited-area model (GEM-LAM) over specific Northern regions in combination with field measurement campaigns and process studies. As an example, the Hydro-meteorological and Arctic Laboratory (Contact: G. Burke) will configure and operate a high resolution (2.5 km) NWP window that would cover southern Baffin Island, Hudson Strait and northern Quebec in support to the IPY Canadian and international research community. Follows a list of field campaign measurements, modelling, data assimilation and process studies that will help to enhance Polar-GEM weather and environmental forecasting capabilities, and improve our understanding of Arctic climate and influence on world weather: 1) In Baffin Island region, we will use of the EC research aircraft and ground observing systems (X-band radar, radiometer, POSS, etc.) to study Arctic storms. It is a project with a large compliment of surface based observing systems in the summer of 2005 and will be fully operational by 2007. Another field campaign is the NOAA SEARCH project that will begin to deploy instruments to Eureka observing station, Ellesmere Island, in 2005 and will be fully operational by 2006. It is essentially a U.S. ARM site for making long term Arctic observations. MSC want to use some of these observations for validating CloudSat and other space-based observation systems. (Contact: Dr. S. Cober) 2) The Polar-GEM will be coupled to a suite of environmental prediction systems for hydrological, ice, forestry applications and in support to GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) studies. This would needs examination of different surface and hydrological model runs that could feed into or make use of some of the proposed observational networks (both atmospheric and hydrological) and help validate and calibrate aspects of the land-surface models. (Contact: Dr. A. Pietroniro) 3) The Hydro-meteorological and Arctic Laboratory in collaboration with the Canadian Forest Service proposes to couple the EC lightning prediction and a fire occurrence model over the forested region of the Arctic. (Contact: Dr. B. Burrows) 4) To improve medium-range WEP forecasts we will take care of the meteorological component of the IPY both in terms of what can influence the meteorological forecast over the polar regions and of how the meteorological conditions over those regions can impact the quality of global forecasts on time-scales of one-day to two-weeks. In conjunction with this activity, there are several types of satellite data from polar-orbiting satellites that we will assimilate and validate with field measurement campaigns. (Contact: Dr. P. Gauthier) 5) We will study severe Arctic storms, their associated hazardous conditions like blizzards, blowing snow, severe wind chill and reduced visibility. (Contact: Dr. R. Stewart and Dr. J. Hanesiak) 6) We will investigate the important role of Greenland in modulating the structure and the predictability of both local and downstream weather systems. (Contact: Dr. K. Moore) 7) TAWEPI results will help develop new physics and land-surface packages for the next generation Regional Climate Model (based on GEM-LAM) developed at MSC for regional climate scenarios. (Contact: Dr. G. Flato)

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The TAWEPI project will generate all the meteorological, hydrological and ice information needed to continuously monitor and forecast the Arctic present environmental status at unprecedented accuracy that will permit quantifying their spatial and temporal variability on a wide range of scales (from 15km). • The TAWEPI project will improve weather and environmental forecasts from one-day to two-weeks. • The TAWEPI proposal will permit sensitivity studies that will advance our understanding of polar-global interactions by studying teleconnections on all scales with a state-of-the-art data assimilation and numerical weather prediction system. • The TAWEPI proposal will investigate and model different physical and dynamical processes that will advance our scientific knowledge of the polar regions. • The TAWEPI proposal will validate/use the surface and space-base observations system that gives a unique vantage point of the polar region atmosphere-ocean-ice system. • The TAWEPI Polar-GEM weather and environmental prediction system legacy will increase the sustainability of Arctic communities with improved weather and environmental forecasts.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
This is a Thorpex IPY initiative that will be coordinated with similar initiatives in the USA, UK, France and Germany. METEO-FRANCE plans to focus on the Antartica and we are already discussing and sharing information. We will rely on the Thorpex International Science Committee to advice us on other possible collaborations and coordination.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The three proposed field experiments are located at Baffin Island, Ellesmere Island and Greenland respectively.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 06/05-07/08            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
The Polar-GEM will be operated on the high performance computer and archiving infrastructure of MSC. The model output will be made available to collaborators. • MSC research aircraft. • Two aircrafts (UK and Germany) on forward base of Keflavik, Iceland. • Eureka station on Ellesmere Island.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The Polar-GEM could be made operational on a permanent basis for the Canadian and international Arctic communities after the IPY, if ongoing resources are available. This would be an international Canadian contribution as a provider of enhance environmental products in the Arctic. This legacy of this regional Arctic WEP system would provide all the meteorological, hydrological, ice and chemical information needed to continuously monitor and forecast the Arctic environment from scale of one day to two days. This would include the training of a group of expert meteorologists in WEP for Arctic applications. • TAWEPI will train scientists interested in Arctic environmental issues. • Another legacy is that the Canadian global operational data-assimilation and modelling system for medium-range forecasting would have been extensively validated and improved for Arctic forecasts for time scale of one day to two weeks. • We could also envisage post-IPY chemical applications, like monitoring the regional ozone distribution with unprecedented accuracy with a stratospheric extension of Polar-GEM.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
This pre-proposal has been reviewed and is being submitted by the Canadian Steering Committee (CSC). Ongoing discussions will integrate this pre-proposal into a larger network of related national and international initiatives. The CSC has initially sorted this pre-proposal into: SUB-THEME: Environmental Prediction

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
YES

The modelling and data assimilation component is new, but the field experiments are already planned missions.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The intention is to hire a scientist at RPN to lead the Polar-GEM project inside MSC with a core team of two meteorologists. • We propose to create a national/international steering committee to advice and assist the management of TAWEPI.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The education, outreach and communication will be coordinated with EC partners in the Hydro-meteorological and Arctic Laboratory, CMC and Canadian Universities.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
The data management will follows the usual framework for operational and R&D activities at MSC.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Miscellaneous funding agencies are already supporting partially these activities (CSA, ArcticNet, MSC, NERC, ESA, NSF). The project if fully accepted could ask additional new fund for 15PY (including support to the proposed fieldworks) with a capital (including high performance computer resources) of 850K per year. This would amount approximately to a total of 2725K per year for three fiscal years. New funding proposals will be proposed to CFCAS, NSERC and the Canadian Government.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Ayrton Zadra
Numerical Prediction Research, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada
2121, route Transcanadienne, Dorval (Quebec)
H9P 1J3
Canada

Tel: 514-421-4643
Mobile: no
Fax: 514-421-2106
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation