Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

CANADA #98: Variability and Change in the Canadian Cryosphere  (Variability and Change in the Canadian Cryosphere)

Outline
Northern Hemisphere high latitudes have experienced rapid warming over the last two decades that is consistent with model projections of greenhouse gas-induced warming, although there is recent evidence (Bengtsson et al., 2004) that internal mechanisms are capable of generating similar warming events. The cryosphere (sea-, lake-, and river-ice, snow cover and solid precipitation, glaciers, icebergs, ice sheets, ice caps, and frozen ground including permafrost) is an integral component of the climate system, and cryospheric-climate feedbacks contribute to the observed amplified warming over northern high latitudes. This has manifested itself in significant circumpolar cryospheric responses that include: a reduction in summer sea ice extent, earlier disappearance of snow and freshwater ice, an increase in the active layer depth, and negative mass balances for glaciers (Serreze et al., 2001). The human implications of these cryosphere responses are significant (see 2004 ACIA report). “Variability and Change in the Canadian Cryosphere” will: (1) provide near real-time information on the current state of the Canadian cryosphere during IPY; (2) document variability and trends in cryospheric elements; (3) examine cryospheric-climate linkages and feedbacks to understand and explain the observed cryospheric variability and change; (4) provide an assessment of future cryospheric conditions through regional and global climate modelling; and (5) examine the ecological and human implications of the observed/predicted changes. Item (2) will involve a study of the role of traditional knowledge in documenting and understanding changes in the coastal sea ice conditions. This project is proposed as a collaborative effort involving federal government and university researchers which will be coordinated by the Canadian CRYSYS project. This builds on the success of the CRYSYS-led assessment of the response of the Canadian cryosphere to the extreme warm summer of 1998 (Atkinson et al., 2005). Through the CRYSYS network, this project brings together the essential elements required to carry out this study: (1) access to key expertise and data from federal and provincial cryospheric monitoring and forecasting programs; (2) R&D expertise in remote sensing of the cryosphere which will allow new satellite information to be exploited (e.g. RADARSAT-2, CryoSat); and (3) an established mechanism for data management and outreach activities through the Canadian Cryospheric Information Network (CCIN) at U. Waterloo. The CCIN is fully compliant with the metadata standards required by IPY. The project will draw extensively on proposed IPY activities at NRCan (permafrost and glacier monitoring; remote sensing of glacier dynamics; Canadian Arctic Network of Coastal Observatories), EC/CRB (remote sensing of the cryosphere; historical variability in snowfall, solid precipitation and snow cover; snow-climate interactions; future snow simulations with CRCM), EC/CIS (enhanced sea ice observations during IPY; ice forecasting; future ice climate of the NW Passage), EC/NWRI (hydrology of northern Canada; climate change impacts on hydrology and aquatic systems; variability and change in river ice and river ice processes), EC/HAL (blowing snow forecasting), and DFO (in situ and helicopter-based ice thickness monitoring; sea ice flux through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago). The project also has linkages to the OASIS-Canada project and to projects on northern ecosystems. Key university activities include the ongoing University of Alberta GLIMS (Global Land Ice Measurements from Space) project to document variability and change in Canadian land ice and its contribution to sea level rise, ArcticNet cryospheric research at the University of Manitoba, the University of Waterloo Canadian Cryospheric Information Network, passive microwave remote sensing research at several Canadian Universities, and research at the University of Toronto on the application of Inuit traditional knowledge of sea ice in climate change studies.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Status: The project will provide through the Canadian Cryospheric Information Network near real-time information on the current state of the Canadian cryosphere during IPY. It will provide an ongoing integrated assessment of the Canadian cryosphere from surface observations and remote sensing, and will place this in the context of past variability and trends. This includes a number of the key variables identified in the IPY Framework document i.e. solid precipitation, ice thickness, snow cover, glacier mass balance, and Canadian Arctic land ice contributions to sea level rise. An integrated assessment of the cryosphere is important because of the feedbacks between components e.g. the amount and timing of snowfall affect sea ice growth, active layer depth, and glacier melt. The project also includes activities to evaluate cryospheric datasets (e.g. reanalysis products) and climate model output of variables such as solid precipitation, snow cover and sea ice. ! Change: The project will investigate observed variability and change in the Canadian cryosphere from analytical and modelling studies, and will also assess the results and performance of prediction models over a range of time scales. Global Linkages: The project will investigate surface-atmosphere interactions, large-scale feedbacks, and teleconnections involving the cryosphere. The role of the Arctic Oscillation in cryosphere-climate variability and change is of particular interest. New Frontiers: the project will apply new technologies (e.g. remote sensing) and modelling science to derive new understanding of cold climate systems and the ecosystems they support. Human Dimension: the project will examine the human implications of observed and projected changes in the Canadian cryosphere with a special focus on the coastal sea ice regime that is vital for transportation and hunting.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
International collaboration occurs at a number of levels through data exchange agreements (e.g. the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) and Glaciers (GTN-G), the International Arctic Buoy Project), contributions to international projects (e.g. the International Permafrost Association’s IPY/TSP project, the WCRP/Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project, the IASC Mass Balance of Arctic Glaciers and Ice Caps project, the international OASIS (Ocean-Atmosphere-Sea-Ice-Snow Interactions in polar regions) project, SEARCH (Study of Environmental Arctic Change), ArcticNet, and through international working groups (e.g. NASA Cold Land Processes Working Group) and model intercomparison projects such as SIMIP. In addition, the various federal and university projects that contribute to this project involve international scientists from a wide range of countries including the United States, Denmark, Norway, Russia, and Great Britain.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Observations and process studies will be carried out over a range of locations and scales. The Canadian permafrost study region includes sites in the Mackenzie Valley and Delta, southern Yukon, high Arctic and northern Québec. This includes coastal processes being monitored by the Canadian Arctic Network of Coastal Observatories (CANCO). Snow field studies will be carried out over the northern boreal forest and a number of tundra validation sites on the mainland (e.g. the Long-Term Ecological Research site at Daring Lake) and on the arctic archipelago. In addition snow on sea ice surveys will be carried out with proposed DFO helicopter GPR surveys. Sea ice studies will focus on ice thickness variability and change, and ice transport through the Arctic archipelago. Remotely-sensed and in situ information will be use to document variability and change in ice cover on large northern lakes, and to investigate river ice formation, break-up and ice jam processes. ! Investigations of the dynamic response of Arctic glaciers to recent warming will be carried out at several Canadian Arctic glacier monitoring sites as part of the IASC MAGICS program.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 04/06 – 10/06      04/07 – 10/07      04/08 – 10/08
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Most of the requirements are being met through ongoing logistical arrangements e.g. Polar Continental Shelf (PCSP) logistics, although additional PCSP support will be required during IPY. Ship support would be required for proposed helicopter-based GPR snow-on-ice and ice thickness surveys by DFO.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The project will leave a legacy of cryospheric monitoring sites (e.g. permafrost temperature, active layer depth, glacier mass balance, snow depth, ice thickness), as well as a data management and dissemination framework (CCIN) to support future research. Collaboration with other members of the Canadian cryospheric community will leave a legacy of integrated northern observatories.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Applications will be submitted to Polar Continental Shelf for logistical support. Dept. of National Defence provides support at CFS Alert. Other support will be funded through existing federal government (e.g. NRCan/GSC) funds, through collaboration with ongoing activities (e.g. ArcticNet) as well as from any new federal funds secured in future proposals related to IPY.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Yes- The concept of an overarching “Fate and Evolution of the Cryosphere” project has been endorsed by the WCRP CliC Programme This pre-proposal has been reviewed and is being submitted by the Canadian Steering Committee (CSC). Ongoing discussions will integrate this pre-proposal into a larger network of related national and international initiatives. The CSC has initially sorted this pre-proposal into: THEME: Education, Outreach & Communication SUB-THEME: Variability and change in the Canadian Cryosphere

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
yes

This project is mainly comprised of existing and ongoing departmental cryospheric monitoring, research and modelling activities. Additional funding and logistics support will be required for enhanced observing activities, field work, data management and outreach activities.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be coordinated through the CRYSYS project with data management provided by the Canadian Cryospheric Information Network at U. Waterloo. At a working level, the various project components will be managed through existing frameworks and management structures at the various federal departments involved. International coordination will occur through ongoing interactions and through coordinating bodies such as WCRP CliC.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The State of the Canadian Cryosphere website will be the main tool for communication, education and outreach activities. This will also link to websites of project participants (e.g. the GTN-P site managed by NRCan/GSC). Newsletters will be used where applicable to communicate project results e.g. WCRP/CliC and IPA. A communication plan will be developed in consultation with the various groups involved in the project. An initial idea for educational outreach is the development of an online, interactive learning module on the Canadian cryosphere and its response to warming. The Canadian Ice Service and NRCan have experience developing educational outreach materials for northern communities that can be used in this activity.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
The CCIN is the Canadian portal for cryospheric information in Canada. It will provide current information on the state of the cryosphere in Canada (including departures from “normal” where appropriate) from near real-time data streams, and by linking to partners’ databases and information e.g. the Canadian Permafrost Network and GTN-P and Canadian Ice Service archives. The CCIN is ISO 19115 compliant and supports XML4 for metadata queries. This allows the various databases involved in the project to link to World Data Centres (through NSIDC) and WCRP/CliC.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Components of the project, including activities leading up to IPY period will be funded through existing federal government funding obtained for the maintenance and enhancement of the monitoring network. Proposals are currently under development to secure further federal government funding to support components of the project through the IPY period. Additional funding will be required for enhanced observations, data management and outreach.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
The CRYSYS project has been an important force in Canada over the past decade in promoting an enhanced, integrated observing strategy for the Canadian cryosphere. Major accomplishments include the development of a National cryospheric observing plan for GCOS (Brown and O’Neil, 2002), an integrated assessment of the response of the cryosphere to the extreme warm summer of 1998 (Atkinson et al., 2005), and new remote sensing applications for monitoring the cryosphere. The proposed integrated observing strategy will help provide a more complete picture of the Canadian cryosphere, will facilitate the identification of important linkages and interactions, and will contributes to interdisciplinary science in northern Canada. It is important to stress that this project is more than observations: the goal is to make this a truly multidisciplinary effort by looking at cryospheric linkages to ecosystems, Arctic contaminants, and human activities. References Cited: Atkinson, D.E., R. Brown, B. Alt, T. Agnew, J. Bourgeois, M. Burgess, C. Duguay, G. Henry, S. Jeffers, R. Koerner, A.G. Lewkowicz, S. McCourt, H. Melling, M. Sharp, S. Smith, A. Walker, K. Wilson, S. Wolfe, M-k. Woo, K. Young, 2005: Canadian cryospheric response to an anomalous warm summer. Atmosphere-Ocean (accepted). Bengtsson, L., V.A. Semenov, and O.M. Johannessen, 2004: The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic - A Possible Mechanism. J. Climate, 17, 4045-4057. Brown, R.D., and D. O’Neill, 2002: National Plan for Cryospheric Monitoring. Meteorological Service of Canada, Climate Processes and Earth Observations Division, Downsview, Ontario, M3H 5T4, May 1, 2002, 85 pp. (http://www.socc.ca/gcos_cry_plan_canada.pdf) Serreze, M.C., J.E. Walsh, F.S. III Chapin, T. Osterkamp, M. Dyurgerov, V. Romanovsky, W.C. Oechel, J. Morison, T. Zhang, and R.G. Barry, 2000: Observational Evidence of Recent Change in the Northern High-Latitude Environment. Climatic Change, 46, 159-207.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Mr  Ross Brown
Meteorological Service of Canada
2121 Trans-Canada Highway
Dorval, QC
H9P 1J3
Canada

Tel: +1-514-421-4772
Mobile: no
Fax: +1-514-421-2106
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation