Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

CANADA #16:Global Warming and Arctic Marine Mammals  (GWAMM)

Outline
The increasing effects of global warming are amplified in polar environments, an example being how observed climate changes in Arctic environments are already impacting abiotic and biotic processes. Environmental forcing on physical parameters, such as freshwater input, sea ice formation/breakup/stability, will affect marine mammals in Arctic regions for all or most of the year. Shifts in oceanographic processes impacting sea ice and prey availability may reduce or destroy suitable habitat in that marine mammals depend on ecological conditions unique to Arctic ecosystems. We propose to study the coupling between physical environments, particularly sea ice dynamic and thermodynamic processes, and marine mammal fitness. This will be achieved using remote sensing and marine mammals as oceanographic samplers to provide oceanographic information (depth-temperature & salinity) over a greater spatial and temporal period than could be expected using traditional methods (Lydersen et al. 2002). Depending on the species/populations involved, this could provide polar basin wide inputs into global atmospheric-ocean coupled climate and circulation models. The scale improvements to these models that could be achieved in turn would assist in better understanding expected productivity and habitat changes, their impacts on marine mammals, and ultimately resource users. Most marine mammals are apex predators in Arctic food webs and have evolved to migrate, forage, reproduce and survive in highly seasonal conditions. Although adaptable to the variability characteristic of polar environments, extreme alterations in physical surroundings as projected by climate change models will have fitness consequences at both the individual and population level. The GWAMM programme would be a global collaboration directed at understanding the fitness consequences of oceanographic changes and recently observed reductions in sea ice cover (Barber et al. 2004) on selected Arctic marine mammals. GWAMM Researchers will use remote sensing and telemetry to follow environmental changes as well as the movements and activity of polar bears, narwhal, beluga, bowhead, walrus, and ringed, bearded, harp and hooded seals through their annual cycles. Scientific teams will explore the species-specific fitness consequences of observed foraging behaviour, reproduction, migration, and ultimately survival. Long-term data on polar bears, ringed seals, and belugas from Hudson Bay and eastern Beaufort Sea are archived by DFO and EC and will be used to estimate survival through cohort analysis. Through comparative analysis of past and present reproduction and survival, this programme anticipates uncovering demographic forcing behind biological and physical coupling of the ecosystem, ultimately resulting in distributional shifts constrained by Arctic climate variability and change. We will compare regional differences in resource selection to regional patterns of oceanographic regimes and sea ice structure to understand the factors associated with habitat use, reproduction and survival. At the end of this 3-year research program, at a cost of approximately $6.03 million (externally funded at a ratio of 3:1), polar scientists will have a better and more comprehensive understanding of how Arctic marine mammals may adapt to currently observed and projected changes in both dynamic and thermodynamic processes of the Arctic ocean/ snow/sea ice system.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Status: provide baseline data on marine mammal resource selection related to physical environmental parameters in the high Arctic Change: understand how changes in the physical environment, e.g., changing sea ice dynamic and thermodynamic processes, will influence arctic marine mammal fitness through alterations in foraging behaviour, migration, reproduction, and survival. Linkages and interaction: document how top predators interact with their Arctic environment, and; quantify critical linkages in the trophic cascade (Inuit-bear-seal-fish-zooplankton-phytoplankton-physical environment), by linking migration patterns to the formation and retreat of sea ice, water masses, and upwelling zones. Investigating new frontiers: marine mammals instrumented with depth and salinity/temperature recorders will provide additional cost efficient inputs to relay oceanographic data for ice-covered areas, previously inaccessible to improve spatial and temporal resolution over larger areas than achieved using traditional means..

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Denmark/Greenland: Kristin Laidre (narwhal), Mads Peter Heide-Jørgensen (beluga, bowhead), Erik Born (walrus, seals, polar bears), A. Rosing-Asvid (hooded and harp seals) U.S. Alaska: Roderick Hobbs (bowhead), Greg O’Corry-Crowe (genetics), Robert Suydam (beluga), Kathy Frost, Brendan Kelly, Sofie Van Parijs, Peter Boveng (seals), Steven Amstrup (polar bears) Norway: Christian Lydersen, Kit Kovacs (seals), Jon Aars (polar bears) Russia: V. Svetocheva Sev-Pinro Archangelsk (seals, beluga), Dennis Litovka (marine mammals Chukotskoye) Canada: see list 4.2

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Beaufort Sea, Bering Sea, Barents Sea, Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay, Canadian Archipelago, Greenland, Svalbard , White Sea, Chukchi Sea, Davis Strait Circumarctic region defined by AMAP contaminant research.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: Field captures April-October      Research 01/2006 – 12/2008      Telemetry 06/06 to 06/09
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Helicopters/twin otters - transport scientists and gear to marine mammals for tagging. Field camps and community housing - for capture operations depending on species and location. Resources can be shared with other projects (e.g., ArcticNet). Satellite remote sensing data - through partnership with international space agencies (NASA, ESA, CSA, etc).

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
This project offers an opportunity to implicate northerners in planning, execution and analyses of satellite data and transmitting this data to the community through interviews, community meetings, and development of a web-based site to provide real time recording of marine mammal locations and dive behaviour.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Tagging of the 6 species at 10 tags/yr for 3 years for a northern and a southern population (10X5K for diving and CTD tags). Costs are similar for all species and estimated for each population/year = 50K for tags + 30K (3K/tag) for ARGOS processing and tariff + 40K for capture + 10K for travel and analyses = 130K/population. For 6 species (combines 2 seal species) and 2 populations each = 1.56M/yr (4.68M for the 3 years of tagging). Also, funding is required for satellite analysis, ocean and atmospheric analysis, and integration of these data with the telemetry data. The University of Manitoba would be the centre for the physical/biological coupling requiring 300K per year in satellite data, 100K/yr in people costs, and 50K/yr in computing costs (total 1.35M over 3 years). We expect individual population projects and the centre to raise 75% of the total funding (2.01M/yr) through other funding avenues. For example, research funding nationally includes: ArcticN! et, DFO, EC, NSERC, Nunavut Wildlife Management Board, provincial Hydro companies, Oil and Gas companies, Universities (University of Alberta, University of Saskatchewan, University of Manitoba, Trent University, University of Saskatchewan, Laval University). International funding includes NOA, and NASA resources.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
The project has been linked to a Canadian marine birds IPY preproposal titled “Arctic Marine Alert System (AMAS)” providing an early-warning system for detecting Arctic marine ecosystem change through the use of top predators. Also, a Danish IPY submission “Pan-Arctic Tracking of Beluga Whales (PATOB)” is linked to this work. Another connection is with “Arctic Wildlife Observatories Linking Vulnerable EcoSystems (Arctic WOLVES)” which will assess terrestrial mammal response to global warming. This pre-proposal has been reviewed and is being submitted by the Canadian Steering Committee (CSC). Ongoing discussions will integrate this pre-proposal into a larger network of related national and international initiatives. The CSC has initially sorted this pre-proposal into: Ecosystems Terrestrial Processes

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
yes

Further details: There are several marine mammal tagging projects that are currently coupling the physical environment in relation to habitat use (e.g. beluga, narwhals, polar bears, walrus, seals, bowhead whales), as well sea ice and physical data is being collected across the arctic using several different organizations (e.g., CASES, ArcticNet).

How will the project be organised and managed?
An elected project manager who will be responsible for coordinating and planning field projects. This person would oversee a scientific research team of leaders (Principal Investigators): one for each species (n=6) and one for each physical link (oceanography, sea ice, climate, n=3). Additionally, a managing board, consisting of individuals from industry, government, northern communities, and international agencies will align research with their requirements. The two teams would insure coordination of the biological and physical studies in an international setting. Network investigators will be selected to represent the different individual field projects and will be responsible for site-specific scientific planning/logistics and translating findings to the Principal Investigators. In 2005 GWAMM will convene workshops where dozens of marine biologists, oceanographers, and engineers will meet to design a research program wherein hundreds of animals will be simul! taneously tagged and tracked as they crisscross the Arctic and northern regions of Pacific and Atlantic Oceans used during winter migrations.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Many marine mammal tagging projects depend on the participation of the local community members who are familiar with the animal behaviours and regional geography. Current tagging projects involve northern students who will partake in field and laboratory activities as part of a northern initiative. Community consultations will be expanded outside of community governments to school classrooms. Data from the satellite tags will be transmitted back to research locations and then made available to the scientific community at large, northern communities, the public, and students and teachers (i.e., via world wide web). Furthermore, many species in this program are important subsistence resources for Arctic communities and colleges and documentation of important ecological linkages with respect to climate change will be important for predicting shifts in subsistence resources in the future.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Video images of field tagging along with video clips of satellite tracking of marine mammals will be sent to local government and community agencies and put online for public viewing. As well, local community tours will be done to address local support. Progressive data will be presented in real-time using a website hosted at the University of Manitoba and Fisheries and Oceans Canada where satellite remote sensing data will be integrated in near real time with satellite telemetry from each of the species. This network node would then act as a focal point for creating local community interest, and engaging the media of our circumarctic partnerships in highlighting the marine mammal species and their connection to changing sea ice and climatic conditions. We would also propose to connect the telemetry data to schools through public outreach and education via this central node.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
We are requesting 25% (503K/year for 3 years) of the costs associated with field studies and computer-based research to be covered by IPY funding plus administrative costs for an annual conference @ 45K/year. Additional funds will be secured by each NI for individual project administration and to cover 75% of costs of the purchase of tags, deployment (capture), telemetry processing, satellite image, computing, and people costs. All projects are currently funded for local research (e.g., ArcticNet, FJMC, Devon, NWMB, NSERC, NSF, EC, DFO, NSF, NOAA). However, additional funding would be required to organize studies into a cohesive pattern aligned with project objectives. As well, funding is required to initiate some studies, such as high arctic tagging which is currently prohibitive due to logistic costs. Much of the requested budget would be to support the incremental costs of people and field travel to integrate the existing projects into a cohesive GWAMM network. International partners would be expected to comply with the 3:1 funding requirement using sources such as NOAA, Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Norwegian Polar Institute, North Slope Borough and national research councils.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
Marine mammals travel extensively in remote habitats where traditional oceanographic sampling is limited. Deployment of multi-sensor transmitters provides an opportunity to overcome some of these constraints. Earth Observations Satellites provide detailed information on sea ice processes, surface temperatures, chlorophyll and the spatial and temporal patterns in habitat related variables. The GWAMM research program is a collaborative international venture aimed at understanding the physical-biological coupling between marine mammals and their changing environment. This project will be aligned with the Census of Marine Live (CoML) that seeks over a 10-year period to understand aspects of life in the oceans.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Mr  Steven Ferguson
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
501 University Crescent
Winnipeg, MB
R3T 2N6
Canada

Tel: 204-983-5057
Mobile: no
Fax: 204-984-2403
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation