Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

CANADA #76:Improved Processes and Parameterisations for Atmospheric and Hydrological Prediction in Cold Regions  (IP3)

Outline
The main objective of this study is to: Advance our understanding and description of land surface cryospheric processes in order to improve the predictive capacity of Canadian atmospheric, cryospheric and hydrological models at small to medium scales in cold regions. Activities are as follows: 1.Conduct multiscale observations of snow accumulation, over-winter ablation processes, snowmelt, runoff, soil thermodynamics, infiltration and water redistribution in frozen and thawing soils and cold regions water balance components in non-frozen periods 2.Test and evaluate hypotheses concerning the behaviour, rates and interaction of cold regions land surface processes under various boundary conditions and scales using experiments and off-line tests of coupled algorithms. 3.Develop, adapt and evaluate numerical descriptions of cryospheric processes suitable for small to regional basin modelling scales (CRHM). 4.Incorporate cryospheric process numerical descriptions into land surface schemes coupled to a hydrological model to produce a coupled modelling system that will provide a comprehensive simulation of the terrestrial cryospheric system and its interaction with hydrology and climate (WATCLASS). 5.Simulate terrestrial water and energy cycles using coupled atmospheric, cryospheric and hydrological models (RCM-WATCLASS) at small to meso-scales for selected cold regions environments in Canada. 6.Evaluate simulated fluxes and states of key variables such as discharge, surface water storage, water balance, snowcover, soil moisture, soil frost, soil heat flux, evaporation (ALL). Field observations in established research basins will identify, develop and parameterise process descriptions that will be incorporated in a suite of cryospheric, land surface schemes and then coupled, regional and mesoscale models with a direct improvement of modelling capability. The observations will be necessarily spatially distributed at the mesoscale and will involve intensive observation periods with teams of investigators. Research basin observations will not only be used to improve cryospheric process representations but to evaluate meso-scale representations in models and assess model performance and sensitivity in multi-criteria prediction. The improved models with various levels of coupling will better predict water resources in the cryosphere as well as to simulate the surface climate directly. The study will specifically evaluate and improve the cryospheric aspects of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme CLASS and these improvements will be available for use in hydrological, regional climate, numerical weather forecasting and climate change predictions in WatCLASS, CRCM, GEM and CGCM.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Theme 1 – The current state of the polar environment Documentation of processes controlling development and depletion of snow cover, thaw and drainage of seasonally frozen soils, and the polar hydrological cycle. Better techniques to simulate current snow and cold regions hydrology Theme 2 - Change in the polar regions Better predictive techniques for regional climate and hydrology in cold regions with particular emphasis on snow, frozen ground and runoff prediction. Theme 3 - Polar-global linkages and interaction Improving the linkage between surface and near-surface cryospheric processes, and global climate processes, by improving land surface scheme characterisation in polar regions.. Theme 4 - Investigating new frontiers Improved understanding of the complex cryospheric surface and near surface processes that control the seasonal flux and storage of snow and water in polar regions, and how cold regions water cycling and storage processes will respond to warming.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Richard Harding, NERC-UK – fieldwork and modelling Richard Essery, Univ of Wales, UK – fieldwork and modelling Glen Liston, CSU, USA – fieldwork and modelling Lev Kuchment, Academy of Sciences, Russia – modelling Vladimir Shutov, State Hydrological Institute, Russia – comparative observations O’Hata, Institute of Low Temperature Science, Japan – comparative observations

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The research basins will range up to about 200 km2 and will cover major land surface types (e.g. Inuvik, NWT: Trail Valley Creek – low arctic tundra, Havikpak Creek – arctic taiga forest, Yellowknife, NWT: Baker Creek – sub-arctic boreal shield, Ft. Simpson, NWT: Scotty Creek – boreal permafrost wetland, Whitehorse, Yukon: Wolf Creek - boreal forest-sub-arctic tundra cordillera. We will compare with Russian sites.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 01/06-09/09            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Research basins are already established but will need upgrading for intensive investigations It is intended to use existing CFI for some of this but additional resources will also be needed and are being sought.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The research basins will be renewed and will operate for at least another decade after IPY. This is essential for examination of the long term variability of cold regions hydrology and for detecting emerging trends due to global change.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Anticipated NERC, NASA and national studies for collaborators. NSERC has funded complimentary research projects at the study sites through Discovery grants to individual co-Is. CFCAS has also supported preliminary aspects of the proposed project for the period 2001-04. Submitted CFCAS study for co-investigators. Would be enhanced significantly by Canadian IPY support. Regional offices of the Yukon, NWT and Canadian governments (e.g. Yukon College, Aurora Institute, Water Survey of Canada, etc.) located near the study sites provide valuable logistical support for the field, and space needed for the storage and repair of equipment.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Yes, NSERC (MAGS network grant; Discovery grants to individual co-Is) and CFCAS (2001-2004) have funded complimentary research projects at the study sites. An LOI has been reviewed by CFCAS and is under ongoing assessment. This pre-proposal has been reviewed and is being submitted by the Canadian Steering Committee (CSC). Ongoing discussions will integrate this pre-proposal into a larger network of related national and international initiatives. The CSC has initially sorted this pre-proposal into: Freshwater Flux in Canadian Terrestrial and Oceanic Polar Regions

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
yes

How will the project be organised and managed?
The study will be directed by a Principal Investigator backed by a Science Committee composed of co-Is and a Management Committee composed of the Science Committee plus representatives from the major user organisations. There will be an international advisory committee. The structure will be based on the successful Mackenzie GEWEX Study experience.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The study includes Northern scientists (Yukon, NWT) as full co-Is, and will continue to liaise with northern researchers, train northern researchers and present findings to local communities and groups in the tradition of MAGS. Materials will be used in University coursework and will be extensively published and presented at scientific meetings.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
The study will employ an information manager who will compile and disseminate information. The Network will collect substantial observational records on land surface and cryospheric processes that will be managed and archived. As well it will produce model products from the cryospheric, coupled land surface, mesoscale atmospheric and regional climate model runs. The data policy will be based on that developed in MAGS. Archiving will follow that successfully used for the MAGS project.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
The study has applied for funding at the level of $3,750,000 from CFCAS for the years 2005-2010. Most of this will be applied in the polar region under the remit of IPY. It would be useful to expand polar activities by investment of a further $2,500,000 from sources as yet undetermined.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
While it functions well as a stand alone, with significant further investment in the range of $4,000,000 this study could expand into the comprehensive MAGS (i.e. Mackenzie GEWEX Study) follow-on. To do so would mean also involving a set of atmospheric scientists to examine feedback issues relating to the land surface cryosphere. The PI has been asked by MAGS to develop a follow-on study of this nature but funds have not yet been located due to the recent cancellation of the NSERC Collaborative Research Grants program.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Prof  John Pomeroy
University of Saskatchewan
Centre for Hydrology, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan
S7N 5C8
Canada

Tel: 306-966-1426
Mobile: no
Fax: 306-966-1428
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation