Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

CANADA #79: Development of Ocean Modelling Capacity for Simulating the Canadian North, and Arctic-Atlantic Links  (Arctic-Atlantic Links)

Outline
The climate of the North Atlantic and the Arctic are linked in a number of ways. Decadal variability in ocean properties, winds, precipitation, etc. have been linked to both the NAO and AO (Greatbatch, 2000) and to each other through feedback loops (Mysak et al., 1990; Wohlleben and Weaver, 1995). A key feature of all these loops is the export of fresh water (liquid form and ice) from the Arctic to the North Atlantic, where it can have a major effect on deep convection (Lilly et al., 1999). The main export source for this freshwater has been generally considered to be Fram Strait (Aagaard and Carmack, 1989). However, there is also a significant transport of freshwater from the Arctic to the Labrador Sea through the Canadian Archipelago (Aagaard and Carmack, 1989). The principle route and size of this export from the Arctic has varied significantly in the past and there is the potential for significant future changes in the freshwater (and ice) export. The North Atlantic is known to be sensitive to the input of freshwater, therefire it is important to develop models that can properly represent these processes. Modelling the Canadian Archipelago will be difficult, with its many narrow, shallow and ice-choked passages. At present, no ocean general circulation model is able to model the full three-dimensional circulation in this important Arctic region, never mind simulate correctly the exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and the Labrador Sea. Therefore, the goal of this project would be to develop a modelling capacity for this important, yet difficult to represent region. A high-resolution, ocean-ice ocean general circulation model would be built. One version of the model would be build using traditional finite difference methods, while another version would use the potentially advantageous finite element method (although more development would be needed, as this method is less developed).

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The significant advances would be the development of ocean general circulation models able to simulate the important but difficult to represent Canadian Arctic Archipelago and its role in linking the Arctic Ocean to the Labrador Sea and the North Atlantic. Such a model would enable much improved simulations of the present environments in the Canadian Arctic, as well as how these oceanic pathways may change due to variability in atmospheric forcing (e.g. Arctic Oscillation) and/or climate change. The connectivity such models would allow the Global Linkages between the Arctic and the North Atlantic (which have been speculated to affect the global meridional overturning circulation and thus global climate) to be examined in much more detail.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
As discussed in my cover letter, and below, nothing formal. But such a project (and the development of such a model linking the Arctic and North Atlantic) would fit nicely within the context of the ASOF (Arctic-Subarctic Ocean Fluxes) project, for example. This would also align with work being proposed to CFCAS on atmosphere-ocean predictability in the North Atlantic.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
None – modelling based – although it would be nicely supported by increased ocean measurements (for validation) in Baffin Bay, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Canada Basin.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Facilities needed would be computational facilities for the development and running of such models. Examples could be stand-along high performance unix workstations or supercomputing facilities (such as WESTGRID).

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
YES! The development of the first full ocean general circulation models will leave a legacy of these tools that can be used in many future studies.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Westgrid computing facilities in place. Also have my own modelling servers. Depending on the specific project details, additional computing resources may be needed.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
This is basically an individual proposal of something I think needs to be done and will provide a usual legacy for future studies in the Canadian North. It probably would be best linked to larger project(s) related to the climate in the Canadian North. This pre-proposal has been reviewed and is being submitted by the Canadian Steering Committee (CSC). Ongoing discussions will integrate this pre-proposal into a larger network of related national and international initiatives. The CSC has initially sorted this pre-proposal into: Freshwater Flux in Canadian Terrestrial and Oceanic Polar Regions

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
yes

As above, would probably be best linked to a larger initiative. But as proposed here, is an independent new project.

How will the project be organised and managed?
Depends on linkages with larger projects. If just a stand alone effort, will not need much individual management.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Scientific publications, project web page, scientific and general talks and presentations. Also, the goal would be the production of an ocean-ice model of the region that would be made available to the Canadian community.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Once developed, the plan would be to make the model (and the results of its simulations) freely available to the scientific community.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
No direct funding presently secured. I plan to work on aspects of this project on my own (using my NSERC Discovery grant) but that probably won’t lead to fast progress. Funding for elements has been/could be applied for through CFCAS, MITACS, etc. Again, I think this would depend if such a project can be made part of a larger initiative.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
Just in general, I’m not sure if IPY was looking for large scale observationally based proposals but I decided to send it this item because it is something I am interested in and think it is very much worth doing. It is something I would be happy to see combined with a larger initiative. Any comments or useful suggestions are always welcome.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Mr  Paul Myers
University of Alberta
1-26 ESB, University of Alberta
Edmonton, Alberta
T6G 2E3
Canada

Tel: 780-492-6706
Mobile: no
Fax: 780-492-2030
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation