Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Research for Drift forecasting in the Arctic for Marine Environment and Safety.  (DAMES)

Outline
Human activities in the maritime transport and energy sectors are steadily increasing in the Arctic. Cruise activity around Spitzbergen, tanker traffic from northern Russian ports and nascent petroleum exploration are good examples. The IPY itself may well lead to a significant increase in ship traffic in the Arctic. Along with traditional fishing, these activities also represent an increasing maritime safety concern as well as threat to the marine environment through spills of pollutants (both accidental and intentional). Supporting safety and mitigation of pollution incidents are tasks that maritime nations commonly perform in their national and nearby waters, primarily through search-and-rescue (SAR) and oil spill combatment services. Hitherto, these duties have not prioritized the polar regions, since transport activity has been relatively weak and logistics are difficult. This is now changing and there is a need to expand emergency services to polar regions. The proposed activity aims to aid SAR and oil spill combatment services by extending existing emergency drift modeling systems to the Arctic and enhancing them to account for the special problems associated with extreme temperatures and sea-ice. The modeling systems involved are operated by national agencies vested with the responsibility for providing emergency support for SAR and oil spill services, thereby ensuring rapid transition to sustained operations. Research activities include: improving and validating operational ocean, sea-ice, wave and atmosphere models at fine scales; investigating the appropriateness of different sea-ice model concepts (continuum vs. floe-based) for use in drift forecasting; modeling the influence of sea-ice on oil spill weathering; scenario experiments to elucidate oil spill impact and vulnerable areas. Technical activities: including sea-ice forecasts in the geophysical forcing data; implementation of sea-ice as a transport medium for drifting objects and oil; including sea-ice weathering; validation of the ocean current and drift forecasts against available drift data (buoys, ice floes) collected during the IPY.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The activities proposed here are not easily pigeonholed in the stated IPY themes. However, they impinge on issues raised in Themes 1 and 6. Since drift forecasting is crucially dependent on accurate forecasts of currents, water properties, winds, waves and sea-ice, models capable of reliably simulating the current physical state of the polar environment are essential (Theme 1). Human societies in the Arctic (Theme 6) are the most vulnerable to the safety and pollution issues addressed here. It is envisaged that this project will cooperate closely with related IPY activities. The project directly addresses important themes in the GEO (US) and GMES (Europe) programs.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The responsible national agencies for SAR and/or oil spill forecasting on the margins of the Arctic (Norway, Denmark, USA).

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The target area for the project is the ice-infested margins of the Arctic Ocean, including Spitzbergen, Greenland and Alaska. However, the research and technological developments will be pan-Arctic in nature. The project will utilize field data from other IPY projects for validation.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: TBC            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
No specific logistical support. Computing resources are needed. Operational forcing data (atmosphere, ocean, wave, sea-ice) may be shared between partners. The model and forecasting systems developed will be parts of existing national services.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
It is envisaged that the participating forecasting agencies will establish procedures for exchange of forcing data and drift prognoses (for small ensemble forecasts) in areas of overlapping responsibility. Otherwise, existing infrastructure will be used.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
National agency

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Endorsement will be sought from the national IPY committees.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Exp

Search-and-rescue and oil spill fate forecasting are existing national services in the involved countries, and are periodically updated. Extension to ice-infested waters has, however, not been prioritized so far. IPY represents an opportunity.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be organized as national target systems feeding on cross-cutting scientific research tasks. The research tasks include: ice model development; oil weathering processes in polar areas; sea-ice as drift medium; fine-scale forcing; validation and assessment. Each national component will be managed independently. Scientific research tasks will be addressed incrementally dependent on the actual project consortium. Met.no will take overall project coordination. Responsible national emergency response services will be included on an advisory basis.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The project will result in SAR and oil spill forecasting capabilities in ice-infested waters, which will immediately benefit emergency response agencies. Oil spill vulnerability scenarios will be viewable to the public by internet. The public and IPY scientists will be able to access the drift modeling systems via internet and play out their own scenarios.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
The project includes national agencies that routinely operate large, diverse geophysical data bases and disseminate data, forecasts, warnings to a wide range of users. Data from oil spill scenarios will be made available to national pollution control agencies and to the scientific community.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Following notification through national committees and endorsement by the IPY-JC, funding would be by normal routes, e.g. by the Interagency Funding Group in USA, by National Research Councils and Government Departments in Europe.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Mr Bruce Hackett
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
P.O. Box 43 Blindern
Oslo
N-0313
Norway

Tel: +47 2296 3339
Mobile: +47 48 048 958
Fax: +47 2296 3050
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation