Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Climate and Northern Shrimp  (CLIMP)

Outline
We propose to investigate the sensitivity and the vulnerability of a key species for the Greenland Fisheries to climate variability and change. Shrimp P. borealis is the most important fisheries resources in Greenland. The proposed study is focused on conditions for shrimp larval survival and recruitment in the Northwest Atlantic and the Lower Arctic. One major difficulty in studying the impact of climate change on any species is to know the degree of adaptability of the life cycle in response to environmental variability. A relatively simple but rarely possible approach to estimate the adaptability of a species would be to study a population over a long period encompassing important environmental fluctuations. But, a more feasible approach that would allow to anticipate (rather than to follow) the local response of a species to the climate change predicted by the models would be to study the dynamics of populations along a latitudinal environmental gradient. Shrimp P. borealis distribution in the Northwest Atlantic, from its southern limit in Gulf of Maine to the northern limit in Davis Strait, gives us that opportunity. Moreover, in response to an anticipated warming of the Arctic waters, we must consider the possible northward expansion of P. borealis distribution and the adaptation of the Greenland and Canadian Arctic Fisheries to a new resource. The primary objective of this project is to investigate and compare shrimp larvae development, growth and survival along an environmental gradient characterizing the species latitudinal distribution. P. borealis live and reproduce in ecosystems where ice and surface temperature regimes, and the annual cycle of biological production, varies significantly. Abundance fluctuations are associated with variations in year-class strength and the success of settlement of post-larvae in the deeper waters plays a large role in determining the strength of a year class. Determination of larval survival and the characteristics of the early juveniles (e.g., timing and size at the descent in deeper waters) are, therefore, critical to understand recruitment and abundance fluctuations in the populations. Current climate models all conclude that the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions will experience earlier and more intense warming of the lower atmosphere than other regions. In ice-covered seas, a consequence of this warming should be reduced ice coverage (area and duration), a warming of the surface layer and modification of the biological production cycles. A comparative study of shrimp larvae development along this latitudinal gradient would allow to model and predict the response of local populations to expected changes in the oceanic climate. This innovative approach to the study of climate change impacts on shrimp population will provide the necessary information to develop adaptation strategies for fishers and managers of this important resource for Greenland, Eastern and Northern Canada.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The project will addresses IPY themes 1-4 and 6 by: 1) improve the understanding of the structure and function of the West Greenland marine ecosystem, and 2) model and forecast changes in productivity and distribution of Greenlands most important fisheries resource – northern shrimp - under anticipated climate change. The Greenland society and economy is today almost entirely dependant on northern shrimp fishery. Changes in the marine ecosystems and northern shrimp productivity in the future will have large socio-economic consequences for Greenland. Forecasts of changes in northern shrimp distributions and productivity under the anticipated climate change will lead to: a) better resource management, and b) improve the ability of the society to adapt to resource changes in the future.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
We expect collaboration and support within the EcoGreen Program (An integrated program of research into the structure and function of the West Greenland ecosystem), and ESSAS Program (Ecosystem Studies of Sub-Arctic Seas Climate a GLOBEC program under development).

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The work plan is to compare conditions for development, growth, and survival of shrimp larval stages at three distinct oceanographic regions of the Northwest Atlantic: (1) Davis Strait – West Greenland, (2) Gulf of St. Lawrence, and (3) Northeast Newfoundland and Labrador shelves. Field work will cover Davis Strait and the West Greenland shelf area, focusing on the banks and fjord systems as well as their interaction with the open waters.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 04/07-09/07      04/08-09/08      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
1) A 30 day long plankton survey along West Greenland and in Davis Strait in 2007 or 2008 with a modern “fully-equipped” (e.g. on-line multiple opening/closing Plankton nets, CTD, ADCP) multi-purpose research vessel (The vessel may be Danish, Canadian, Norwegian, German). 2) 1 mooring with a bottom up ADCP.3) Ship time in 2007 and 2008 with the Greenland Research vessels Paamiut and Adolf Jensen along transects over the West Greenland shelf.4) Laboratory facilities on land. All resources and facilities can be usefully shared with other plankton projects.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
NO

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

A modern “fully-equipped” (e.g. on-line multiple opening/closing Plankton nets, CTD, ADCP) multi-purpose research vessel from a partner institute (The vessel may be Danish, Canadian, Norwegian, German).

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
NO - Endorsement of CLIMP has not yet been sought

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
YES

It is a new autonomous proposal but it can be part of the ECOGREEN Program (An integrated program of research into the structure and function of the West Greenland ecosystem). It is expected to integrate the project in the ESSAS Program (Ecosystem Studies of Sub-Arctic Seas Climate a GLOBEC program under development).

How will the project be organised and managed?
The projects will be self-managed and a Project Steering Committee will be established.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
It is the intention to educate a small number of Master students and Phd. students.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Data management will be handled within the operating data management systems of the participating institutes, ICES and other bodies with which the institutes have entered into agreement.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
The project seeks funding through national Danish funding agencies.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
Recent works and publications relevant to the proposal: Ribergaard, M.H., S.A. Pedersen, B. Ådlandsvik and N. Kliem. 2004. Modelling the ocean circulation on the West Greenland shelf with special emphasis on northern shrimp recruitment. Continental Shelf Research, Continental Shelf Research 24/13-14, 1505-1519.Pedersen, S.A., M.H. Ribergaard, & C.S. Simonsen. 2004. Micro- and mesozooplankton in Southwest Greenland waters in relation to environmental factors. Journal of Marine Systems, in Press.Pedersen, S.A., J. Madsen & M. Dyhr-Nielsen (ed.). 2004. Global International Water Assessment (GIWA) - Greenland - GIWA regions 1, 15, and 16. November 2004. (www.giwa.net).

PROPOSER DETAILS

Søren Anker Pedersen
Danish Institute of Fisheries Research
Kavalergaarden 6
DK-2920 Charlottenlund
Denmark

Tel: 33 96 33 00
Mobile: no
Fax: 33 96 34 34
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation