Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Effect of Climate Changes On Permafrozen Periglacial Environments in Greenland  (ECCOPEP (Effect of Climate Changes On PErmafrozen Periglacial Environments))

Outline
Global climate change is expected to have a significant impact on Arctic regions including the permafrost. One problem in evaluating the impact of climate variations on permafrozen grounds - and thus on e.g. Arctic infrastructure - is a general lack of systematic long-term data series that enables a comparision of climatic variation with changes in periglacial processes. This information is a fundamental criterion for evaluating future climatic scenarios.Greenland offers unique possibilities for studying the impact of climate change on periglacial processes in different permafrozen environments. One site in East Greenland (Mestersvig) offers an exceptional opportunity to build on a long time series beginning 1956, when a detailed survey program was initiated. The goal of the proposed project is four fold: 1.A long-term monitoring programme will be designed that enables us to study and model the interaction of a large number of processes taking place in permafrozen areas over a significant time span (>10 years). Potential parameters are: Climatic data (annual variations in temperature, wind, snow-cover, precipitation, evaporation, etc); Soil/sediment/permafrost data (soil temperature, soil creep, fluctuations in thickness of active layer); Geophysical data (3-d distribution of the permafrozen ground); Biogenic parameters (vegetation changes, gas emissions, etc). More parameters will be included to complete the picture. 2.Establish 4 test sites in different regions of Greenland; Make a detailed multidisciplinary survey of the present permafrost conditions of these sites using GIS tools and remote sensing combined with detailed field investigations (geophysical/geotechnical/biological and geological investigations); Installation of equipment for automatic data logging of important parameters. The sites will be designed to last for many years (>10 years) in order to secure long data series. 3.Develop risk-assessment tools that can be used for evaluating the potential hazards in different types of permafrozen areas based on a combination of long termed field observations, geophysical investigations and GIS analysis. By combining these data vulnerability maps showing potential hazardous areas can be compiled, and different risk scenarios constructed. 4.The project will link to modelling studies, which seeks to explain long-term changes in the Arctic in terms of global climate changes. The main activity (site selection, instrumentation and data collection) will take place during IPY. The instrumentation will, however, be designed to function for at least a decade.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The main goal of this project is to address the impact of climatic variations on permafrozen grounds in Greenland. The project will focus on changes in the periglacial processes, which in turn influences the infrastructure and thus the living conditions of people in the Arctic. The project therefore addresses IPY Themes 1 and 2.A major target for this project hence lies in natural and social science research and also in training young researchers in understanding the high Arctic environment within in a multidisciplinary and multi-nationality framework.The project has many Danish participants and addresses the theme ‘Arctic Climate – Variability, Change and Impact’ defined by the Danish National IPY committee.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The project is initiated by a Danish group but will be undertaken as an international programme including scientific groups form Norway, England, Greenland, and the US.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Four locations covering a wide range of periglacial environments and climatic conditions will be selected for field investigations in Greenland. These sites are Mestersvig (on Central East Greenland); Station North (on Northeast Greenland); Illullisat (on Central West Greenland) and Qanaaq (in Northwest Greenland). The proposed sites are in areas that are fairly easily accessible.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 07/07-09/07            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Shipping of field equipment and personal to field will be by commercial and military flights, which can be shared with other IPY projects in Greenland.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The Project will continue beyond IPY as monitoring sites for long term changes of the periglacial environment. The infrastructure legacy will include intellectual advances, institutional collaboration and training of the next generation of polar scientists.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

The required logistic support is limited since one criterion for selection of the test sites will be proximity to airstrips.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
This expression of Intent has simultaneously been submitted to the Danish National IPY Committee, which has provided a ‘General Endorsement Letter’ of January 14 2005.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
YES

Existing 50 years old data from detailed field investigations in the Mestersvig Area of the east coast of Greenland will be included in the project, in order to extend the time span of the project.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be managed by at Steering committee with representatives from the participating institutions including Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, (GEUS), The Greenlandic institution ASIAQ; Technical University of Denmark (DTU); Danish Meteorological Institute (DTU); Geographical Institute, University of Copenhagen; Cambridge University; US Geological Survey; Data will be published in peer-reviewed journals, and the steering group will organise workshops and contact television stations and news papers in order to have the data popularised.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The steering group will organise workshops and contact television and newspapers in order to have the data popularised, and a web page will be established. Young researchers and students will be invited to take part in the extensive field programmes, and PhD projects established based on field and data collections.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Data management will include the use of e.g. the PANGEA database at the University of Bremen, Germany.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
The project will seek funding through national and cross-national funding agencies. EU funding will also be sought.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Naja  Mikkelsen
Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
Øster Voldgade 10
Copenhagen
Dk – 1350 Copenhagen K
Denmark

Tel: +45 3814 2364
Mobile: no
Fax: +45 38 14 20 50
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation