Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Low frequency climate variability during late Holocene around Greenland  (HoVarGreen)

Outline
The Arctic warm period in the 1940's and subsequent cooling until around 1970 had impact on the Arctic societies, in particular fishery in the Greenland waters. One hypothesis is that this was a manifestation of a quasi-recurring phenomenon with timescale 50-100 years. This is supported by experiments with climate model and analysis of proxy data (three rings etc.). This proposal is focused on understanding multidecadal variability around Greenland during the late Holocene. Understanding low frequency variability will help us assessing the significance of presently observed trends and separating human-induced variations from the natural variability. This in turn, will enable better projections of future climate for the Arctic area.Low frequency climate variations are only poorly resolved by instrumental data, which have an about 150 year long record only. Therefore, there is a need for proxy data at decadal or even annual resolution. A multi-disciplinary approach using a variety of proxy records will be applied. Greenland ice core proxy records from the Holocene will be analysed. This includes already available data and data series to be achieved from new drillings planned during the IPY. Atmospheric backward modelling will be carried out, supporting the analysis of these cores by identifying source areas of deposited ice core snow.Likewise, we will analyse lake sediment cores in a transect from southern to northeastern Greenland, partly already existing and partly to be retrieved within this project.Finally, sea sediments from offshore east and west Greenland will also be obtained during IPY and analysed together with already existing sea sediment cores. Using this multitude of proxy series, links will be established between information on changes in the open ocean circulation, changes in the coastal waters and climate events recorded onshore.Supporting modelling work will be carried out. Data from existing experiments with global coupled climate models and from ocean models will be analysed in order to identify propagation patterns and responsible mechanisms. Further information will be gained by additional experiments with a ocean model, aiming at identifying key areas for generating the multidecadal variability.The aim of the project is a consistent picture of Arctic low frequency climate variability including geographical patterns and responsible mechanisms.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This project addresses climate variations on time scales from decades to centuries in and around Greenland. It will help distinguish currently observed climate trends from natural variability and thereby contribute to giving better projections of future climate. It therefore addresses IPY themes 1 and 2It is generally agreed that low frequency variations involves the oceanic thermohaline circulation and thereby have global significance (IPY theme 3).In addition, the project addresses one of the main themes defined by the Danish IPY committee, namely: ‘The Arctic Climate - Variability, Change and Effect’

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The project is initiated by a Danish core group but will be carried out using international networks. In particular, the gathering of paleo-archives (ice cores and sediments) requires international logistic efforts and the necessary network already exists. Also the physical models used are developed and maintained through existing international collaborations.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Ice cores will partly be short ones for updating old drillings to present, partly one new drilling.Retrieval of marine sediment cores from in the fjord systems and shelf areas of east and west Greenland from 60 to 74 degrees north.Retrieval of lake sediments in Northeastern Greenland.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 05/07-09/07            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Ice core drilling requirements (C130/Twin Otter support, ice core drill, ..) will be shared with the proposed project “Greenland’s Ice Sheet reactions to past and present climate change”.Retrieval marine sediment cores requires ship time. Lake sediment coring requires ship and helicopter. These can be shared with other projects.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
This project is centred on the gathering of paleo-archives(ice-cores and sediments) and subsequent analysis of proxy series. It therefore relies on technology previously developed in other projects. The paleo-archives gathered will be properly preserved and kept and may be further analysed by other researchers.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
NO - The proposal has been submitted through the Danish IPY committee.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
YES

New autonomous, coordinated with other projects ( Greenland ice sheet, APEX and others)

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will have a coordinator, who will have contact with the national and international IPY authorities and will coordinate the economical issues, the necessary reporting and other administrative issues, arrange project meetings, coordinate with other IPY projects.Whenever appropriate, the project will be divided into research themes, with leaders responsible for the scientific progress of the theme.The individuals partners are responsible for delivering results in due time. Also to participate in the projects meetings, where major decisions on project progress including alterations are made. Project meetings will be held 1-2 times a year.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Publication of scientific results in peer-revieweed journals.Participate in national IPY outreach activities, to public, school children and decision makers. Besides project specific activities such as a project homepage, the project members will cooperate with the proposed POWER project on education and outreach.PhD and post.doc positions via national funding.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Data obtained and used during this project will be made available to the scientific comunity on the project web-site.After termination of the project, data will be delivered to the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology at NOAA.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
It is foreseen that this project will be funded by national IPY special programmes and EU funding

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Senior scientist Torben Schmith
Danish Meteorological Institute
Lyngbyvej 100
DK-2100 Copenhagen
Denmark

Tel: +45 39 15 74 44
Mobile: no
Fax: +45 39 15 74 60
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation