Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Northern Snow Cover Accumulation and Melting during the IPY as a Part of its Longtime Interannual Variability – their causes and consequences.  (NOSCAM)

Outline
Previous diagnostic and model investigations reveal the significant role of snow cover in the high latitudes in the northern hemisphere and thus global climatic and hydrological systems. The authors of this proposal have made the important input in this results in the frames of INTAS programme. The rivers of the Arctic Ocean basin intercept a great deal of snow from temperate latitudes too. Thus snow forms an important link in the water cycle chain: evaporation from the ocean surface – atmospheric moisture transport to the east – solid precipitation over the continents – delay in the snow cover – melting fresh water run-off to the ocean – its influence on the ocean currents and thermohaline circulation – evaporation. In the last decades up to 2000 the snow storage decreases in the North America while in Northern Eurasia snow storage still increases in spite of the warming due to precipitation grow. The interregional differences in the snow variability in Northern Eurasia could be related to circulation features.The tasks of proposed project are the following. 1) To prolong and improve the existing data bases and archives, to unite the satellite and on-ground, North Eurasian and North American data bases, to compile the maps of snow features using GIS. 2) To analyse the spatial features and teleconnection of snow accumulation and melting for the IPY period with the short (10 – 30 days) time steps. To compare them with the air temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation changes. To evaluate the role of short-term snow feature variations in the interannual ones. To use for that as dense set of station as possible immediately after receiving of information during the IPY with main attention to the Arctic Ocean basin and adjacent territories3) To do the same for the IGY (1957-59) period, compare it with the IPY period and to determine the place of both in the long-time climate and snow cover changes. 4) On the base of long-term data to reveal the interscale links and relation of intercontinental, interregional, intraregional (between natural zones), mesoscale ( between the landscapes) and local variation of snow features. 5) To estimate the limits of snow storage increase by different combination of winter temperatures and precipitation and use it as the base for snow changes scenario for the given climate changes scenario. 6) To reveal dangerous extremes in snow amount for the different parts of winter seasons< their climatic reasons and natural consequences. 7) To reveal the links between the variations of ice cover over the Arctic ocean and of snow cover over the adjacent continents. 8) In conclusion to compare the snow changes with the other changes in the nature and society - during the IPY and long-term on the base of published results of other IPY projects.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The following main results are anticipated from the project. 1. The revision and unification of satellite and on-ground snow cover data bases. 2. The role of snow cover of Arctic ocean basin and adjacent territories in the water cycle and climate changes will be assessed quantitatively. 3. The scenario for the snow features changes for the given climate changes scenario will be elaborated. 4. The intraseasonal changes of snow cover in the IPY and IGY, their circulation and other climatic causes and hydrological consequences will be revealed and related to the long-term climate changes processes. 5. The relation between the spatial and temporal snow cover changes and trends in different scales will be revealed. The input of trends connected with the contemporary climate changes in the total snow cover variability will be estimated. 6. In particular the similarities and the differences between Northern Eurasia and North America will be estimated as well as the existence of teleconnections. 7. The catalogue of dangerous extremes will be prepared and explained for different parts of the winter season, The links between Arctic ocean ice cover and continental snow cover will be found and investigated.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The international cooperation started in 2002-2005 under the INTAS project (#01-0077 SCCONE – Snow Cover Changes Over Northen Eurasia) between the Institutes in Russia, Finland, Norway< Germany will be prolonged anyway. The application for prolongation of INTAS project for 2006 – 2008 is planned. The preliminary agreement about joining of National Snow and Ice Data Center atthe University of Colorado in USA exists already, The proposed project is closely related to the GEWEX and BALTEX goals.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Ground landscape survey observation of snow cover in the central part of Finland (experimental station Sodankil of the Finnish meteorological institute) and on meteorological station Ny-Olesund (Spitsbergen, Norway) are stipulated.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 02/07-03/07      02/08-03/08      02/09-03/09
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
It is necessary to provide travel to a place of field observations and an opportunity of residing near to objects of research.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Results of survey observations of snow cover would be used by road services and a forestry.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
YES - Russian Academy of SciencesOrganizing committee on participation of the Russian Federation in preparation and realization of actions in frameworks IPY 2007/2008.Finnish Meteorological Institute (Helsinki, Finland)Norway Meteorological Institute (Oslo, Norway)

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
YES

How will the project be organised and managed?
Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences will take responsibility for the project coordination. It will be responsible for the GIS mapping and together with other bodies for the analysis of relation between the snow cover, atmospheric circulation and run-off changes. The related experiments with the climate model will be accomplished. RGMI-WDC will be responsible for the data for Russia, the University of Colorado for the data for America and satellite data but albedo which will be on the responsibility of Max Plank Meteorological Institute in Hamburg. RAS Institute of space investigations will take part in the analysis of space data and in their unification with the on-ground ones. Data for Fennoscandia will be on responsibility on the Finland Meteorological Institute. The project structure: Stage 1 – analysis of long-time data series, especially for IGY years. 2 – analysis of IPY data according to their entry. Stages 4 – 8 coincide with the tasks 4 – 8 in the part 1.3 of this application. Each institute is responsible for its national territory . International collaboration will be accomplished through the e-mail and personal contacts depending on the funding. The generalisation of results could take about 2 years after finishing of IPY.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The scientific and popular papers will be published in different languages which could be used for education and by politicians and economists dealing with the North. The Internet website will be organised.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
See point 1) of the part 1.3 of this application

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Mostly on the base of national budgets. Though Russia hopes on the INTAS help in case of success of the application described above in the part 1.7. and of the restricted partial support of NSIDC of University of Colorado. In case of absence such help the project will be shorten in all the details, though preservation of all the tasks and main results is anticipated.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Vladimir Kotlyakov
Institute of Geography RAS
Staromonetniy per., 29
109017
Russia

Tel: +7 (095) 9590032
Mobile: no
Fax: +7 (095) 9590033
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation